31 Mar 10 : City Dev back.....

Double Top ? Price target : $10.20 ?

My position recovered these 2 days. Hope it will really hit $10.20 :)

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31 Mar 10 : Market Update

Singapore stock market and companies daily report

SGX To Delist Five Firms

Five companies with market capitalization less than $10m on Singapore Exchange (SGX) loss-making watchlist will be delisted after posting losses for five straight years – General Magnetics, Chuan Soon Huat Industrial Group, ASA Group Holdings,Fastech Synergy and Ionics EMS. ‘The companies should delist and return remaining funds to shareholders instead of continuing to run down the assets,’ said SGX.

General Magnetics and Chuan Soon Huat will be delisted tomorow. ASA and Fastech have been given three months to come up with an exit offer for shareholders, though trading of their shares will be suspended from tomorrow while trading of Ionics EMS will continue until its voluntary delisting is completed.




DBS Sells Indian JV Stake For $117m

DBS Group has sold its 37.48% stake in Indian joint venture Cholamandalam DBS Finance (Chola) to its JV partner for $117m, a move that it hopes will sharpen its focus on serving corporate clients and rich individuals in the country.


DBS agreed yesterday to sell its shares in Chola, a non-bank finance company, to Indian conglomerate Murugappa Group, which already owns a 37.48% stake in the firm, for 91 rupees or $2.84 per share.The sale, expected to be completed by April 12, doubles Murugappa’s stake in Chola to 74.96% and marks a return of Chola to its parent. Though their joint venture has now ended, both DBS and Murugappa ‘remain open to future collaboration’ in areas such as wealth management and the distribution of financial products, DBS said.





Temasek Invests US$100m In South African Mining Firm

Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited has announced that on March 29, 2010, its indirect subsidiary Ridgewood Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd (Ridgewood), agreed to buy US$100m of convertible debt in Platmin Ltd, the South Africa-based platinum miner controlled by Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources Ltd.


‘Through our investment in Platmin, we will gain direct exposure to the fast-growing automotive sectors in China and India. We are pleased to participate in the funding of Platmin as it grows into an important industry producer,’ said Hamiyeh, Temasek’s managing director of investment. Temasek can convert all the debt into shares at US$1.215 apiece before the debenture matures on Dec 31, Platmin, with headquarters in Centurion, said. Upon the exercise of the conversion right, Ridgewood will receive about 82.3m shares, representing about 15.6% of Platmin’s equity, according to the statement.



This article is contributed by Shares Investment. Visit Sharesinv.com for the latest Singapore, Malaysia and China stock market news and reports

31 Mar 10 : Genting Dun Look Good ...

Analysts: RWS casino operating below expectations

WITH crowds at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) stabilising, a clearer picture is emerging of how the casino industry here is shaping up. And it does not look particularly sanguine.

Citigroup gaming analysts staked out the RWS casino for three days from March 24 - 26, conducting 12 surveys in four different time slots - 9am, 1am, 6pm and 12pm.

Based on this, it believes that the casino is performing about 5 -10 per cent below Citigroup's original estimates - which were about 20 - 25 per cent below consensus estimates.

However, Citigroup added: 'To be fair to RWS, we went along with the expectation that our estimates could be cut in half, and this was not the case.'

Still, it found that only 215 gaming tables were operating at peak times and 97 tables at non-peak times.

The casino is understood to have the capacity for up to 700 gaming tables.

While the low number of operational tables gives the casino a 'busy atmosphere', visit numbers, according to Citigroup's survey, are 20,000 -25,000 a day. It also noted that many visitors are merely watching and not gambling.

The table crunch has also resulted in 'painfully' slow playing times, Citigroup said. 'On many occasions, we counted Roulette, Baccarat and Tai *** taking well over 10 minutes to complete one game or hand. In reality, they should be able to complete one game or hand comfortably within four or five minutes.'

Still, Citigroup was 'pleasantly surprised' that table bets were respectable, with 85 per cent of Baccarat tables' minimum bets at more than $200, which is in line with Macau.

Contribution from slots was also higher than expected.

Indeed, Citigroup expects the casino's performance to peak in the first quarter before it faces competition from the Marina Bay Sands (MBS) casino which opens next month. 'We forecast no cannibalisation at RWS, but understand this is highly unlikely,' it said.

Citigroup pointed out that average revenue at Sands Macau fell 22 per cent in the six months after the Venetian Macau opened in 2007.

It also questioned whether the Singapore market has the capacity to grow to its initial estimated size of US$2.8 billion by 2011, which is below the consensus forecast of US$3.5 - 4 billion).

Gaming and hospitality consultant Ronald Tan has also checked out the RWS casino. And based on the size of the bets that he saw being placed, he said: 'There is no way they can make money.'

This also takes into account the fact that construction costs for RWS and MBS have come in 25-40 per cent over budget.

Mr Tan made his comments at a Singapore Press Club talk yesterday on the prospects for Singapore's casinos.

Also present was Sean Monaghan, managing director of AG Leisure Partners, who agreed that the return on investment for RWS and MBS will be lower than first expected because of 'cost overruns.'

Mr Monaghan is, however, a little more optimistic, and believes that the opening of MBS could help grow the casino market here. 'MBS will cater to a different market,' he said.

The size of crowds can be deceiving too, as 80 - 90 per cent of a casino's revenue comes from just 25 per cent of the players, Mr Monaghan said.

China Aviation oil : What's up :)

Amazing.. And it all happened in the last hour or so of trading...

Kelong ? :)

Trading for a living

If every day you are stuck in your job and wondering what's next. And then someone mentioned trading for a living, you must have worried. It is not exactly wrong but think of it another way. Whether you are working for someone or you are starting a business, it is equally risky. At least in active trading there is such a thing as stop loss (tell that to the guy who is fired after 30 years in the same job or the business man who loaned $5 million on his company's reputation). I don't know if I ever will turn trading for a living but I know this is true... whether you are working for someone, doing a business or just walking the streets, the risks are the same.

Something I read on the net:

Q: I know you say FOREX is the best business on the planet. So you got me wondering.....If you were 23 like me and just starting your career in this day and age, would a FOREX business or investment fund be the type of business you would build to make your fortune?

YES...definitely...If I knew then what I know now...and the opportunity was available (which was not available when I was younger) ....I would not have looked at any other business

Q: Trading has always been a passion for me. just not a profitable one lol.

Most small businesses are not either

Q: I'm very confident that this year that is going to change!

Forex trading allows you to change your "business approach" quickly and easily to turn your business around and into profits. You can start again today in forex...without any baggage associated with normal businesses (Rents, staff, etc). It is a brand new day and the forex market has no memory

Futures Contract Naming Convention

Each Futures contract month has a letter code as shown below :

F = January
G = February
H = March
J = April
K = May
M = June
N = July
Q = August
U = September
V = October
X = November
Z = December

For Examples :
Crude Oil Futures : CLJ0 -> J = April
Nikkei Futures : JNIMO -> M = June
Hang Seng Futures : HSIZ9 -> Z = December
Dax Futures : FDXF0 -> F = January
FTSE Futures : FFIG0 -> G = February
Dow Jones Futures : DJK0 -> K = May


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US Stock Market Update 29th March 2010

US stock market daily report. (March 29, 2010, Monday)


This morning, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that they will begin selling all of the shares they bought off of Citigroup Inc. In 2008, the federal government gave the troubled lender $45 billion from the TARP program. Citigroup gave the government 7.7 billion shares for $25 billion; the government said they plan on selling all of the shares by the end of the year. Back in 2008 when the shares were purchased, they were acquired for $3.25 a share; based on the closing price Friday, shares of Citigroup are worth $4.31 a share. The government is expecting to make a profit from the overall sale and return funds to American taxpayers; it is expected that with shares being around that price, the government stands to make $7.5 billion in profit. If the Treasury would've sold 20% of its stock at the time Citi sold new shares late last year like they were planning on, they would've lost $158.7 million, they decided to wait and sell the 7.7 billion shares over the span of a year. Citigroup has now repaid all of the remaining money they owed U.S. government, back in December, Citi repaid the government $20 more billion they owed. Fortunately for Citigroup things have turned around, the banking giant will report first-quarter profit results next month; they are expected to report a profit of just $180 million. Stocks saw gains today after the government announced its plan to start selling shares; it also gained some ground due to the good report from the Commerce Department. In the report, the Department reported consumer spending rose last month, this marks the fifth month in a row to show a rise in spending. Investors have been responding well to the news coming from Greece, last week the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed on a loan package that Greece or other nations could access, if they absolutely need it. After the EU made the announcement the once struggling euro has turned around and started building up strength against the dollar. At the end of the trading session, stocks were able to hold onto gains, the dollar continued its fall against the euro. Commodity prices rose; gold rose $6.10 to $1,110.30 an ounce and crude oil rose $2.17 to $82.17 a barrel.

Singapore Market Update 30th March

C&G Enters MOU To Sell PET Chips/Yarn Business For Minimum US$49m

C&G Industrial (C&G) said yesterday that it had inked a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to sell its textile business for at least $49m to Hou Shiqing, a major shareholder of Shishi City Gangyi Dyeing Manufacture Co Ltd. The sale price is subject to further negotiations, taking into account the financials of C&G’s textile arm, CHGU Group Technology Holdings International. Proceeds from sale will be channeled to more lucrative and stable Waste-To-Energy (WTE) business.
‘The textile industry has become more competitive and the group would otherwise have to make substantial investments to stay ahead,’ said C&G group chief executive Cai Junyi. Cai added that prospects were also brighter in the clean energy sector that C&G had ventured into, through its recent acquisition of WTE firm C&G Environment Protection International. Including two latest built-operate-transfer contracts worth RMB600m ($123m), C&G Environment has a total of nine WTE projects. Based on its secured capacity, it will be one of the top three WTE operators in China, with an annual treatment capacity of 3.3m tonnes.



SGX Requests Immediate Replies From China Milk Regarding Audit Delay

The Singapore Exchange(SGX) is requesting clarification from China Milk Products Group, after weeks of delay in the debt-laden company’s cash audit process and appointment of a chief financial officer, among various things.
Yesterday, the exchange called for the company to address a list of several issues ‘immediately via public announcement on SGXNet’. After China Milk failed to meet the March 15 deadline for a cash audit directed by the exchange, it told SGX that its auditors (Grant Thornton) had not finalised their audit report because the auditors did not have ‘certain executed documentation’ required for the audit.
In yesterday’s statement to the firm, SGX asked China Milk to disclose the reasons for the failure to furnish the auditors with the documents in question, to produce a timeline for the completion of the cash audit and release of its findings, alongside the company’s measures for safeguarding its cash. SGX also sought confirmation from the board of China Milk on whether its statement late last month about having enough funds to meet its bonds’ obligation is still true. Last but not least, SGX turned its attention to the company’s search for a CFO and to confirm that the result of 3Q10 will be announced by 5th April 2010.



Stamford Land May Sell Perth Tower For A$140m

Stamford Land Corporation could be selling its Grade A office tower in Perth’s central business district for at least A$140m ($179m). According to The West Australian, the 13-storey Dynons Plaza at Hay Street is under construction and Stamford Land is ‘gearing up to place the asset on the market’. Industry sources told the Australian paper that the building has a value of A$130-140m. Chevron will be leasing the entire place – which has 13000 square metres of office space – when it is ready in the next few weeks.
According to Business Times, Stamford Land is expecting offers of more than A$140m. This could reap a considerable profit for the company given that the total cost of buying, holding and developing the land could have come up to some A$80-90m. Also, it understands that Chevron’s lease for Dynons Plaza lasts for ten years, and its rents are set to escalate every year. Despite this, Stamford Land is said to be selling the site to focus on its core business of running luxury hotels.



This article is contributed by Shares Investment. Visit Sharesinv.com for the latest Singapore, Malaysia and China stock market news and reports.

The German Reformation

The German Reformation
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The political history of Europe since Bismarck's unification of Germany in 1871 has been the struggle of the European nations to contain the military, political and economic might of Germany. Germany has fought three wars in two centuries, the Franco-Prussian in 1870, and the First and Second World Wars to prevent what its leaders perceived as the dangers inherent in its central strategic position between France on the West and Russia on the East. The desperate desire of the continent's leaders to avoid a repeat of the disasters of the first half of the 20th has dictated the purpose and structure of every major European international system since 1945.

Beginning with the European Coal and Steel Pact in 1950, running through the Treaty of Rome in 1957 that created the common market, the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 which brought about the euro and European Union, and culminating with the Lisbon Treaty three years ago which binds the 27 nations of the EU into the world's only supra-national entity, Germany has been woven ever closer into the communal life of the continent.

The European Union, even in its original incarnation of the European Economic Community in the late 1950s, was the economic side of German containment. Perhaps the purpose of the community is more generously stated by saying its goal was to align the economic interests of all of its members so that economic predation and conflict would be unthinkable.

In its goal of remaking of European politics the economic union has been completely successful. A war between the members of the EU is currently inconceivable. No one can imagine German aggression on Europe for economic or political gain. As Robert Schumann the French Foreign Minister said in 1950 in his speech which proposed the union project "any war between France and Germany" would be "not merely unthinkable but materially impossible". The goal and process of the union was to bind Germany within strong European institutions that treated all members the same, minimizing historical grievances and eliminating the temptation for the stronger to take advantage of their superiority.

The military side of German containment was subsumed within the Cold War through NATO and the bi-polar post war political world. Even the need to defend Germany itself was under NATO command, an arrangement accepted without demur by the Germans. The front line of the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union between NATO and the Warsaw Pact ran through the middle of a divided Germany.

However, these strategic adaptations did not change the essential nature of Germany, the German people or its position as the largest, most productive and richest nation in Old Europe, and now in the new European Union as well. Until last month, German was the world's first exporter by value of goods, a remarkable achievement for a nation of 82 million people. China, which surpassed it, has sixteen times its population.

The German engineering, productivity and efficiency that have made its products some of the highest value in the world are an example and a burden for its partners in the EMU. The other euro-zone members must compete with the Germans within the straightjacket of the EU and the ECB. The euro and the its single interest rate have welded all of the countries of the EMU to the economy of Germany.

The historical relationship of the past 60 years between Germany and the rest of Europe has been reversed. Instead of Germany binding itself to the political fates of its neighbors, her neighbors have bound themselves to the German economic standard.

For France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Austria, the Czechs and others, whose economies and workers are not much less efficient than Germany, the benefits of the union in transactional efficiency and competition have probably drawn their economies closer to the German standard.

But for the southern countries, Greece Spain, Portugal and perhaps Italy the temptation of the credit provided by membership in the euro was irresistible. Combine cheap money with budgetary indiscipline and the results were predictable and unsustainable. The current fiscal deficits threaten to overthrow the discipline of the 3% and 60% deficit and debt to GDP limits of the Maastricht treaty. For these countries, with the exception of Italy, their export products do not have the high value added quality of Germany. They have traditionally resorted to currency devaluations to restore competitive productivity and export efficiency to their economies.

The currency devaluation route is closed. The European bailout route has been stopped by Angel Merkel and a German public that does not want to pay for the profligacy of their euro partners. There was no disguising the fact that an EU rescue for Greece would be paid for by German taxpayers. German resistance has forced the rest of the EMU into line with its wishes. The IMF will dictate terms to Greece.

This was not the denouement that many thought would happen when the crisis blew up last year. A few weeks of public punishment for Greece and then the EU would come to the rescue, was the common opinion on the continent at the time.

Europe cannot have the benefits of the euro and the ECB without German cooperation. In the past Germany has accepted its role as the guarantor of last resort for the European Union without public reserve. Germans were the foremost Europeans. That day has passed. German national interest is diverging from unquestioning allegiance to the European project. The economic logic of the euro and the European Union will force reformation on the union; it will be led by Germany.

29 Mar 10 : Powerful STI (and CityDev)

My shorting exercise in City Dev is dead :)

=========

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 29 March 2010

DJIA: 10850.36 +9.15
Nasdaq Composite: 2395.13 -2.28

US stocks closed mixed last Friday as news of a Greece bailout package overshadowed a US report that showed the economy grew at a slower pace than initially expected in 4Q2009. At the EU summit in Brussels, the EU and the IMF have agreed to a joint program that would make cheap loans available should Greece or other euro zone nations be unable to raise funds on their own. The deal involves euro zone nations setting aside funds based on their GDP and population, which implies that Germany will fund the largest portion of the bill. However, a downward revision in 4Q09 GDP growth to an annual rate of 5.6%, against expectations that GDP growth would hold steady at 5.9% as reported previously, dampened market sentiment.

Market sentiment was also dampened by reports of a conflict between North and South Korea. There was an explosion which tore a hole in South Korea vessel in the disputed waters near North Korea and South Korean officials were investigating whether it was an attack from the North.

Other economic reports were more upbeat with consumer sentiment rising to 73.6 in March, against expectations of a rise to 73, from 72.5 earlier in the month while 27 states reported rising unemployment rates in February, down from 30 states in January.

For the week, all the major indices ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and S&P 500 climbed 0.58% to end at 1166.59. Nasdaq composite rose 0.87%.

With the first big wave of first-quarter earnings report due only in mid April, the market is expected to take leads from economic reports and the week ahead brings a series of closely-monitored reports on unemployment, housing, consumer spending and the strength of the economy. On Monday, the February reading on personal income and spending is due.

For the week, US light crude oil for May delivery fell US$0.68 or 0.84% to settle at US$80.00 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

US markets reversed from gains in early trading to close to off their highs due to apparent discord amongst the EU leaders on the bailout plan for Greece’s debt woes and the disappointing treasury auction. US bonds fell, pushing yields higher. In the local bourse, there was subdued retail participation last Friday with trading focus on small caps and penny stocks. On the broader market, the blue-chip STI managed to gain 17.91 points to close at 2906.28, led by property and banking shares. However, for the week, the STI fell 0.32% or 9.42 points.

Demand for high-end residential projects continued to stay buoyant. All 202 units were snapped up at last Thursday's launch of 76 Shenton (by Hong Leong) with all units below 1000 square feet priced at $2000 per square feet. Traders keenly bid up shares of Soilbuild, Ho Bee, and GuocoLand and that rose between 10 and 12 cents.

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Mid day March 29. Singapore shares rose as traders looked to China for leads

Singapore s hares rose Monday as traders looked to China for leads following a flat US close on Friday. The mainland index gained 2 per cent led by financials. The much expected margin trading and short selling of stocks will start on March 31 and analysts estimate margin trading could bring in RMB$90bil to the A-share market. The STI index rose 14.92 points at 2921.20 points. For every stock that fell, 3 rose. Turnover was 761mil shares with a value of $559mil traded.

Hengxin; a maker of radio frequency coxial cables for mobile communications, became the latest S-chip to jump on the dual listing bandwagon. The shares gapped up on the open bell and closed 5.5 cents at 32 cents. Shares of UPP jumped 1.5 cents at 12 cents while its 2013 warrants jumped 50 per cent at 0.045 cents. The company is currently subject of a takeover by deal-maker Peter Lim who is offering 10 cent a share in a general offer. Today's interest could have been stocked by a weekend filing that Peter Lim has bought 10mil UPP shares from the open market at 10 cents. China Fish extended gains, adding 7 cents at $2.05 while substantial stakeholder Pac Andes rose half cent at 35 cents. Straits Asia gained 6 cents at $2.24 on institutional buying as the stock play catch up to its Asean peers trading at higher multiples. One foreign broker recently reiterated its buy call following Straits Asia's resource upgrade with a price target of $3.40.

Noble Group eased 3 cents at $3.16 after a foreign broker downgraded the stock to a hold with cuts to its earnings expectations. The broker premised the downgrade call on an expectation that the prices of industrial commodities would ease due to rising supply and fickle speculative flows. Others like Parkway, Jardine Strategic, SGX, SIA and Goodpack fell between 1 and 14 cents.


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Market close March 29. Good start to the trading week

Singapore shares got off to a good star t for the trading week with the STI index closing 22.86 points higher at 2929.14 points. For every stock that fell, 3 rose. Turnover was 1.35bil shares with a value of $1.15bil traded.

Hengxin, a maker of radio frequency coxial cables for mobile communications, became the latest S-chip to jump on the dual listing bandwagon. The shares gapped up on the open bell and closed 6.5 cents at 33 cents.

Shares of UPP jumped 3 cents at 13.5 cents while its 2013 warrants jumped 66 per cent at 0.5 cents. The company is currently subject of a takeover by deal-maker Peter Lim who is offering 10 cent a share in a general offer. Today's interest could have been stocked by a weekend filing that Peter Lim has bought 10mil UPP shares from the open market at 10 cents.

China Fish extended gains, adding 7 cents at $2.05 while substantial stakeholder Pac Andes rose 1cent at 35.5 cents. Straits Asia gained 4 cents at $2.22 on institutional buying as the stock play catch up to its Asian peers trading at higher multiples. One foreign broker recently reiterated its buy call following Straits Asia's resource upgrade with a price target of $3.40.

Noble Group eased 3 cents at $3.16 after a foreign broker downgraded the stock to a hold with cuts to its earnings expectations. The broker premised the downgrade call on an expectation that the prices of industrial commodities would ease due to rising supply and fickle speculative flows.

Others like Parkway, Jardine Strategic, ST Engg, Sp Land, and SGX, fell between 3 and 9 cents.

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Forex Trends: How to Profit from them?

Forex Trends: How to Profit from them?

Trends are familiar to the general public. News reports speak about them all the time, and even housewives have an idea that some people benefit greatly from them behind the scenes. If you want to be one of those people, you`re at the right place.

Since price action behaves like fractals and is self-similar, one can speak of both short and long term trends from the same technical perspective. Apart from the higher cost of trading in the short term (due to the cost of the broker spread), and the role of fundamental analysis (which we won`t examine here) trading a trend in a short- or long-term scenario creates identical scenarios for the trader.

In this article we assume an ideal trading environment, that is, the broker spread is supposed to be zero.

What are the characteristic signs of a trend?

1. Rising Volatility: Trends are in general accompanied by rising volatility with volatility defined according to the textbook method. What this means in practical terms is that the size and speed of successive swings of the trend tend to get faster, on average, as the trend progresses.

2. Flags and Pennants: This are ubiquitous in trends, and are thought to be highly reliable by a majority of traders. Flags and pennants represent brief, quick consolidation periods that present excellent opportunities for new orders, but do not lead to new developments.

Needless to say, there exist quite strong and credible signals that can be derived through fundamental methods, too.

Trends can be traded with the following technical tools.

Moving Averages

Along with trend lines, moving averages are the simplest tools in trend following. But that does not imply that they are ineffective. On the contrary, one can make use of moving averages as a highly effective means of guessing potential support-resistance lines in the context of short-term price movements.

It is easy to observe during trading that the price tends to move by jumping between successive moving average levels. In a 15 minute chart, for instance, we note that price movements breach 30- 50- 100- 200- minute MAs while moving in a straightforward way during much of the rest of the time. Trading the trend involves taking advantage of these movements by placing limit entry/exit orders, take profit, or stop loss points to coincide with them.

Trading with moving averages is not difficult, but one must be careful with his risk controls due to the tendency of trends to `overshoot` the levels indicated by MA analysis. Without adequate care, this may result in sizable losses to the trader.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger bands are not very useful in trading trends directly. Many traders use them to open or close positions on the basis of signals generated through the interaction of price action with the outer bands, but the evidence supporting the effectiveness of this strategy is flimsy at best.

In our opinion, the best use of Bollinger bands is for examining volatility. In this strategy, traders confirm any breakout from a previously well-established support or resistance with a favorable signal from the Bands, and consider the trend established only when a predetermined a level of volatility is reached (that is, the Band reach a specified distance from each other). Similarly, exit orders are placed when the bands begin to contract to a predetermined level, suggesting that the price action is losing momentum.
Expanding Bollinger Bands can serve as a confirmatory signal for a new trade.

Trend Lines

Trend lines are some of the easiest and simplest tools in trend analysis; they are also very effective. Trading with trend lines involves using them as a springboard for trade decisions. You simply open positions as the price action hits the trend line (a short position in a downtrend, a long position in an uptrend). Positions can be closed on the basis of oscillators such as the RSI at the risk of failing to realize your profits in full. Another way to take profit is realizing your gains each time the price hits the trend line, and opening another position to continue exploiting the trend with minimal risk, in a variation of the layered entry method.

In short, if you trade with trend lines alone, stop-loss orders will be easy to place, but taking profit requires a bit more attention.

Conclusion

Trend following is a simple and straightforward method, and it is highly profitable as well. We will conclude this article by suggesting that the reader combine these tools into a workable strategy as an exercise.

Create your trend following strategy with the help of moving averages, trade according to the support and resistance lines indicated by them. If you have access to order flows, so much the better, trade to exploit order clusters whenever you can. Place your stop-loss order on the trend line. Activate your position in light of the Bollinger Bands. Keep in mind that trends move fast and reverse without warning, but still remain alive on the longer term. Success in surviving volatility by the application of sound risk controls, and exploiting the main movement over the life of the trend is a sign that you are on your way to becoming a great trend trader.

Financial Book : Your Money: The Missing Manual

I love reading financial blogs that teach you how to reach financial independence. Not by stocks trading, fx trading, property etc. Not the earning part. I love reading about the expense part. I am a FIRM BELIEVER that one should not worry too much about the earning part (it is important, dun get me wrong) but one should worry MORE about the spending part. Most people spend more when they earn more. I believe one should spend even less and reduce as much cost as possible. That's a better step towards financial independence.

Anyway, recommending the release of Your Money: The Missing Manual. The book is now available at Amazon, and many people have had kind things to say about it.



Try it !

:)

26 Mar 10 : City Dev Goes Up, Goes Down, Goes Up

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 26 March 2010

DJIA: 10841.21 +5.06
Nasdaq Composite: 2397.41 -1.35

US stocks ended largely unchanged as early-session advance crumbled in late-session trading as the dollar firmed up and commodity prices and related shares retreated. Early-session advance was underpinned by upbeat jobs reports with the number of new claims for unemployment falling to the lowest level in six weeks to 442,000 last week, against expectations of a fall to 450,000, from 456,000 the previous week while continuing claims fell to 4,648,000 last week from 4,725,500 in the previous week. Upbeat profit forecast also contributed to the early gains with Best Buy reporting higher quarterly earnings and revenue that came ahead of expectations and the firm raised its full-year earnings forecast due to increased demand for electronics in an improving economy while Qualcomm boosted its fiscal second-quarter earnings and sales forecast due to a pickup in licensing revenue and chipset demand.

Market sentiment was also lifted by the Fed Reserve Chairman’s speech, saying that record-low interest rates are still needed to keep the economy, which is still at a germinating recovery stage, chugging along. He said that higher rates will be needed at some point in the future but not in the near term.

However, the market cooled in late-trading awaiting developments at the 2-day EU summit in Brussels. The EU leaders would want to put together a joint loan package for a Greece of Euro 22 bil to Euro 23 bil that would be funded by euro zone nations and the IMF, should Greece run out of borrowing options.

The major indices ended largely unchanged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining a marginal 0.05% while S&P 500 lost 0.17% to 1,165.73. Nasdaq composite dipped a marginal 0.06%.

Friday will bring the government’s revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth which is expected to hold steady at the same 5.9% annualised rate. Other economic readings scheduled for the day include the final March reading on consumer sentiment and state-by-state unemployment news.

US light crude oil for May delivery slipped US$0.08 to settle at US$80.45 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

Asian market sentiment was depressed by concerns over Europe’s sovereign debt mounting. News of a Portugal’s credit rating downgrade by Fitch ratings further aggravated concerns. With lingering doubts as to whether the two-day EU summit will deliver bailout plans for Greece, there was flight to safety to the greenback. The Hang Seng fell 1.1% while the Shanghai Composite index lost 1.2%. Nikkei gained a marginal 0.1% while the STI managed a gain of 2.01 points to 2888.37. For every stock that fell, 1.04 gained. Turnover was thin with 1.3 bil shares with a value of $1.09 bil traded.

Noble Group regained some stability yesterday, after sliding 12 cents on Wednesday, closing just one cent down at $3.18, after falling to $3.15 in early trade. Earlier this week, the firm announced that vice-chairman Harry Banga was placing 115 mil shares at $3.10 each with institutional investors.

Expect market to remain range-bound today taking cues from the flat overnight performance on Wall Street. Further, the market is still awaiting developments from the EU summit for to see if any concrete bailout plan for Greece is on the cards.

=====

Mid day March 26. US markets reversed from a splendid day

US markets reversed from a splend id day of gains to close the session well off their highs. The late session weakness was due to the apparent discord amongst the European leaders on the remedy for Greece's debt woes and the disappointing treasury auction. US bonds fell, pushing yields higher. The US dollar jumped alongside Bill Gross (the manager of the world's largest bond fund) comments that the bull run in bonds was coming to an end. Asian markets started low but improved through the day, levitating above yesterday's closing prices. The STI index rose 13.30 points at 2901.67 points.

Property demand for high end residential projects continue to stay buoyant. All 202 units were snapped up at yesterday's 76 Shenton launch( By Hong Leong) with all unit below 1000 square feet priced at $2000 per square feet. Traders keenly bid up shares of Soilbuild, Ho Been, GuocoLand and ChipEngSeng that rose between 1 and 9 cents. China Fish rose 5 cents at $1.92 while major shareholder Pac andes rose 1 cent at 33.5 cents in active trades. A dealer said the stocks moved as expectations of China Fish's listing in Norway drew closer. Straits Asia extended gains, adding 6 cents at $2.16 after yesterday's positive resource update. Other stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, STX Panocean, HL Asia, Great Eastern, Haw Par, F&N, SIA and CapitaLand that gained between 6 and 78 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, UOB, M1, Hyflux, Midas, ST Engineering and Banyantree slid between 1 and 8 cents.


=====


Market close March 26. STI closes higher despite sluggish start

Asian markets shrugged off its earlier lethargy and managed to close in positive territory. The STI index rose 17.91 points at 2906.28 points. Turnover was 1.53bn units worth some $1.16bn. Market breadth was decidedly positive with nearly two gainers to every loser.

Property demand for high end residential projects apparently remains buoyant. All 202 units were snapped up at yesterday's 76 Shenton launch (by the Hong Leong group) with all units below 1000 square feet priced at $2000 per square ft. Traders keenly bid up shares of Soilbuild, Ho Bee, and GuocoLand and that rose between 10 and 12 cents.

China Fish rose 11 cents at $1.98 while major shareholder Pac Andes rose 2 cents at 34.5 cents in active trades. A dealer said the stocks moved as expectations of China Fish's listing in Norway drew closer.

Straits Asia extended gains, adding 8 cents at $2.18 after yesterday's positive resource update.

Other stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, STX Panocean, HL Asia, and Great Eas t ern, that gained between 18 and $1.10.

On the balance, shares of Wilmar, JSH, Hyflux, M1, and ST Engineering slid between 2 and 6 cents.

====

25 Mar 10 : City Dev recovers

And I think my shorting exercise is going to end in disaster AGAIN :)

------

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 25 March 2010

DJIA: 10836.15 -52.68
Nasdaq Composite: 2398.76 -16.48

US stocks slipped on Wednesday after credit agency, Fitch downgraded Portugal’s credit rating one notch from “AA” to “AA minus”, citing the country’s growing budget deficit and debt load. The news reignited concerns that the debt problems of struggling European economies such as Greece are spreading and could affect stronger members of the EU. The downgrade battered the euro and the stronger greenback weighed on commodity prices and related shares.

Market sentiment was further dampened by weaker-than-expected reading on new home sales which fell 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 308,000 units, against expectations 315,000 annualised unit rate, from a 315,000 annualised unit rate in January. Separately, durable goods orders showed a gain of 0.5% in February, a third consecutive increase and in line with expectations. Excluding autos, durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February, ahead of expectations of an increase of 0.3%. after falling 1% in January.

All the major indices ended lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.48% while S&P 500 lost 0.55% to 1,167.72. Nasdaq composite dropped 0.68%.

Market is bracing for the Fed Chairman’s testimony before the House committee on financial services scheduled on Thursday. Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to discuss how the central bank plans to eventually unwind some of the emergency liquidity facilities as the economy continues to show signs of a gradual recovery. Also due on Thursday are readings on weekly jobless claims and continuing jobless claims as well as the quarterly corporate results of Best Buy, ConAgra and Oracle.

US light crude oil for May delivery fell US$1.30 to settle at US$80.61 a barrel as the greenback strengthened and the government’s weekly oil inventory report showed a larger-than-expected build in supplies.



In Singapore today:

The local market slipped on Wednesday due to mounting concerns over Greece’s economic woes. High hopes that the two-day EU summit starting today in Brussels will provide an agreement on a Greek bailout package were gradually replaced by fears that nothing concrete would emerge from the summit hobbled Asian markets. The STI closed 19.30 points lower to 2886.36. For every stock that gained, 1.25 fell. Turnover was 1.72 bil shares with a value of $1.55 bil traded.

The most active trading counter was Noble Group which fell 12 cents to $3.19, with 149.3 mil shares changing hands. The firm announced that vice-chairman Harry Banga was placing 115 mil shares at $3.10 each, which is below current market value, with institutional investors.

Expect market to be range-bound today taking cues from the weaker overnight close on Wall Street. Market sentiment is expected to be cautious as investors await US Fed Chairman’s testimony tonight, discussing on how the central bank will unwind the emergency liquidity facilities. With mounting concerns over Greece’s economic woes, market will also look to the EU summit to see if any concrete bailout plan for Greece is on the cards.

========

Mid day March 25. STI lower at mid day

Stocks had a fresh wall of worry to climb; this time in the downgrade of Portugal's debt by rating agency Fitch. The Euro dollars fell against the greenback and pulled lower commodities and energy issues. In the wake of the broad US pullback, a dealer said it was `normal to have a pullback like that given the days of accumulated gains we've had'. That said, `who knows, this could be a prelude to a month-end dressing' he added.

Asian markets were mostly lower, led by the Hang Seng index's rancous 1.3 per cent decline. The STI index fell 0.37 points at 2885.99 points, off its 2878 points nadir. For every stock that fell, 1.2 rose. Turnover was 678mil shares with a value of $499mil traded.

SATS rose 4 cents at $2.65 helped by a buy call from a local broker with a revised target of $3.20, from $3.09. The research cited better than expected air travel recovery and above mean estimates results as key reasons for the buy. CSE Global shares rose 4.5 cents at $1.01 with its earnings accretive purchase of UK based Systems Integrations and Automation Limited for $21.5mil. Straits Asia gained 7 cents at $2.11 after the company upgraded its coal resources at its Jembayan and Sebuku coal mines.

The trio of KE Energy, Aqua-Terra and SSH halted their trading today pending the announcement of `the results of voting at (1) the extraordinary general meeting of KS Energy Services Limited, (2) the court meeting and extraordinary general meeting of Aqua-Terra Supply Co. Limited and (3) the court meeting of SSH Corporation Ltd., in relation to the Business Consolidation and its related transactions.

On the balance, shares of Breadtalk, DBS, F&N, HL Asia, Venture Corp, Jardine Matheson, SGX, Noble Group, Yanlord and Golden Agric eased between 2 and 10 cents.

====

24 Mar 10 : Market Update

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 24 March 2010

DJIA: 10888.83 +102.94
Nasdaq Composite: 2415.24 +19.84

US stocks rallied on Tuesday, ending at 18-month highs, following better-than-expected readings on existing home sales, which fell to 5.02 mil unit rate in February, against expectations of a fall to 5.0 mil unit rate, from 5.05 mil unit rate in January. The report is consistent with other recent economic readings that the economy is improving at a slow pace.

All the major indices ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.95% while S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 1,174.17. Nasdaq composite added 0.83%.

Market will seek further directions from the economic readings on February new home sales, durable goods orders and weekly crude oil supplies scheduled on Wednesday.

US light crude oil for May delivery rose US$0.31 to settle at US$81.91 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

It was a lackluster Tuesday on the local bourse as investors remained on the sidelines. Taking positive leads from the overnight close on Wall Street, lifted by the passing of the healthcare reform bill, the STI added 16.48 points to close at 2905.66. Market breadth was flat at best safe for a few situational issues that rose in active dealings. Turnover was 1.34 bil shares with a value of $1.2 bil traded.

Shares of HTL International rose 12 cents at 82.5 cents following a buy call from a local broker on Monday. Dealers said traders also piled into shares of Armstrong, Innotek, C2O, Osim, Meiban, Broadway and Supercoffee that gained between 1.5 and 4 cents.

Notwithstanding the positive overnight close on Wall Street, the market is expected to be range bound today in the absence of fresh leads and in view of the recent run-up in the local bourse; the STI has gained about 5.6% since the end of February. The market is also looking for further indications of a durable economy recovery and in the short-term will take leads from US economic readings on February new home sales due on Wednesday. Further the EU summit on Thursday and Friday will discuss further on Greece’s debt woes. Any perceived reluctance by the EU to offer financial aid to Greece may re-ignite concerns about a Greek debt default and weaken the market.

Mid day March 24. STI eased from a strong start on some profit taking

The better than ex pected exisiting home sales report gave US stocks a lift yesterday that helped nudged key indices there to a one per cent gain. Traders brushed aside the typical morning nervous jibes from Greece's debt concerns and worries about the Chinese monetary tightening and steered the market higher in the afternoon. Asian markets rose on the positive lead with focus on better corporate earnings. The STI index eased from a strong start to end 7.51 points lower at 2898.15 points on some profit taking. Market breadth had a slight positve bias as more sidelined money trickled back in. Turnover was 1bil shares with a value of $980mil traded.

Shares of Z-Obee extended gains after it broke through a key resistance point at 41 cents on heavy turnover. The stock gained 1 cent at 42.5 cents on 33mil shares. Strong gains in US tech stocks and favourable outllooks from 2 chip makers boosted tech stocks here. Shares of Stats Chippac, Broadway, DMX Tech and Meiban rose between 1 and 4.5 ce n ts. Stocks that rose were Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C, Parkway, Semb Corp, Longcheer, Venture Corp, CWT and F&N that rose between 2 and 26 cents.

On the balance, shares of City Developments, DBS, Keppel Corp, UOL,CapitaLand, Jardine Strategic, and NOL fell between 2 and 26 cents. Noble Group fell 10 cents at $3.21 as investors reacted to news that its Vice Chairman had sold 115mil shares at $3.10.

The European Debt Stand Off

The European Debt Stand Off
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Greek German dispute has degenerated into a staring match.

Last week the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou set a one-week deadline for the European Union to put together a rescue package for his country. If help was not forthcoming, he threatened to go to the IMF for a loan. The Prime Minister suggested that the EU summit this Thursday and Friday was an appropriate occasion for a rescue announcement. He will be disappointed.

On Monday, German Chancellor Angel Merkel responded and said that investors should not anticipate a rescue plan agreement at the Brussels summit. Greek 10-year government bonds promptly fell to their lowest level since February 25th on Monday, pushing the rate to 6.43%, 336 basis points over the German 10-year Bund.

Greece needs to sell about €10 billion in bonds to rollover debt that is coming due in April and May. The Papandreou government successfully marketed five billion euros worth of 10-year notes early in March. The issue for the Greek government is not whether they will be able to find buyers for their debt, they will-but at what cost. The March issue paid 6.4% and Prime Minister Papandreou has said that Greece cannot continue to pay the current premium of close to 3.5% over German debt, the benchmark in Europe.

Without European loans, guarantees or underwriting Greece will have no choice but to pay the more expensive rates or risk an unsuccessful offering. A failed auction would send financial tremors throughout the European Union and the EMU. It would drive up debt costs for the other large deficit nations, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and probably Britain as well.

Chancellor Merkel's staunch resistance to European largess for Greece has strong popular backing in Germany. Her statement that "Greece isn't insolvent therefore the question about assistance isn't the one we need to be talking about now", is true and will remain so. Last week she noted that the Athens government might have to solicit the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. She is unmoved by the concerns of French President Nicolas Sarkozy that permitting the Washington based IMF to monitor and prescribe for an EMU member nation would be an unacceptable intrusion into EMU sovereignty and a humiliation for the European Union. The United States is the largest contributor to the IMF.

However, within her own government there are doubts. Devotion to the euro, the unification project itself and the intense scrutiny of Greece's financial and government processes that an IMF rescue would entail, have given some officials pause. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said that he has "great reservations" about the IMF option. The euro has fallen over 10% against the dollar and 9.0% versus the yen since the severity of the Greek problem first came to market attention.

An IMF rescue could undermine confidence not only in the euro but also in the stability of the EMU itself. The operating market assumption throughout the Greek crisis has been that the EU would eventually bail out the Greeks. Mr. Schaeuble's concerns are seconded at the European Commission, which naturally favors an EU solution. European Commission President Jose Barroso noted that the EU should use this week's summit meeting to outline its aid program for Greece.

The higher rates the Papandreou government would be forced to pay for debt service without European help will force even deeper cuts in wages and social services in Greece. For a party elected on a platform of increased social spending and wages, the difficulty of yet steeper austerity budgeting is an enormous political problem. Even though polls indicate that 60% of the Greek population supports the Papandreou Government that popularity is friable. The reduced spending must necessarily go on for years if the government is to shrink the deficit from 12.7% of GDP to the EMU mandated 3.0%. Austerity is perhaps palatable in the short term but the Papandreou government can count on the opposition using the austerity program to galvanize its supporters. In a purely political accounting, Mr. Papandreou can only gain from standing up to German demands.

Of all the participants in the Greek discussion, it is the German opinion and thus Ms Merkel's that matters most. The reason is quite straightforward. The German credit rating is the strongest in Europe. Aside from an IMF loan, which might carry an interest rate of 1.5%, the only way to bring down the Greek sovereign borrowing rate is to invoke German creditworthiness. Any rescue of Greece sponsored by the EU, the EMU, the ECB or any other European entity that does not involve Germany will not succeed.

Angel Merkel may deliberately lose the public staring contest. She knows that IMF rule in Athens could cost the support of Greek population for the European unity project. But German austerity terms will be scarcely less onerous. In this case, the first to blink will have won.

23 Mar 10 : CityDev closed lower after starting high

And a big seller :)

-----

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 23 March 2010

DJIA: 10785.89 +43.91
Nasdaq Composite: 2395.40 +20.99


US stocks advanced on Monday, led by healthcare shares, following the Congressional approval of a healthcare reform bill on Sunday night, which President Obama is expected to sign into law on Tuesday, after months of contentious debate. The broad-based bill will extend coverage to 32 mil more people, require all Americans to have coverage and prevent companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing medical conditions. Medicare prescription drug coverage will be expanded and people will be given subsidies to help pay for insurance. Within the healthcare sector, the beneficiaries of the bill include hospital operators, insurers and pharmaceutical and the news lifted the share prices accordingly.

There were renewed concerns about Greece after reports showed that Germany might not go along with EU’s efforts to help Greece reduce its debts. However, these concerns were overshadowed by the market’s focus on healthcare bill reforms.

The major indices ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.41% while S&P 500 added 0.51% to 1,165.81. Nasdaq composite rose 0.88%.

Market is expected to look to readings on February existing home sales and home price index scheduled on Tuesday for clearer directions.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$0.57 to settle at US$81.25 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

The regional markets closed largely lower on Monday following mixed comments from the EU leaders, ahead of the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, fueled doubts over whether the member states would agree to a support package for debt-laden Greece. There were also renewed concerns that Asian central banks would boost efforts to curb inflation following an unexpected move by India to increase interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point after the market closed last Friday. The Hang Seng tumbled 2.1% while the Taiex Index lost 0.78%. The STI index retreated 26.52 points at 2889.18 points. For every stock that rose, 2.5 fell. Turnover was 1.06 bil shares with a value of $1.04 bil traded.

C&O Pharmaceutical extended gains, rising 2 cents at 40.5 cents on rumours that some hedge funds were building a stake in the company. DBS bounced 17 cents at $14.36 on some bargain hunting after Friday's “unusual last minute mark-down” that took the stock over 40 cents lower.

Expect the market to trade firmer today taking cues from the positive overnight close on Wall Street. For the rest of the week, the market is expected to focus and take leads from the US economic readings on February existing and new home sales due on Tuesday and Wednesday and EU summit on Thursday and Friday to discuss further on Greece’s debt woes.

===

Mid day March 23. STI higher at mid day

Wall Street rose, lifted by the passing of the hea lthcare reform bill. This was vastly different from yesterday's afternoon session when US index futures was pointing to a negative day, weakened by the dollar's strength. Asian markets were mostly higher with the STI index adding 16.77 points at 2905.95 points. Market breadth was flat at best safe for a few situational issues that rose in active dealings. Turnover was 671mil shares with a value of $475mil traded.

Shares of HTL International rose 10 cents at 80.5 cents following a buy call from a local broker yesterday. Dealers said traders also piled into shares of Armstrong, Innotek, C2O, Osim, Meiban, Broadway and Supercoffee that gained between 1.5 and 4 cents. Other issues that rose were Shangrila Asia, UOB, DBS, F&N, Shangrila Asia, STX Panocean, Kim Eng, Venture Corp, UOL, Sarin and Keppel Corp that rose between 3 and 56 cents.

On the balance, shares of Yeo Hiap Seng, Wilmar, OUE, SGX, Elec and Eltek and Yongmao fell between 1 and 10 cents. Rickmers Tr u st got clocked 10 cents at 31 cents after its auditor issued a disclaimer on its full year results due to unresolved outstanding loans negotiations with banks.



====



Market Close March 23. Singapore stocks close higher

Wall Street rose, lifted by the passing of the healthcare reform bill. This was vastly different from yesterday's afternoon session when US index futures was pointing to a negative day, weakened by the dollar's strength. Asian markets were mostly higher with the STI index adding 16.48 points at 2905.66 points. Market breadth was flat at best safe for a few situational issues that rose in active dealings. Turnover was 1.3bbil shares with a value of $1bil traded.

Shares of HTL International rose 12 cents at 82.5 cents following a buy call from a local broker yesterday. Dealers said traders also piled into shares of Armstrong, Innotek, C2O, Osim, Meiban, Broadway and Supercoffee that gained between 1.5 and 4 cents. Other issues that rose were Shangrila Asia, UOB, DBS, F&N, Shangrila Asia, STX Panocean, Kim Eng, Venture Corp, UOL, Sarin and Keppel Corp that rose between 3 and 56 cents.

On the balance, shares of Yeo Hiap Seng, Wilmar, OUE, SGX, Elec and Eltek and Yongmao fell between 1 and 10 cents. Rickmers Trust got clocked 10.5 cents at 30.5 cents after its auditor issued a disclaimer on its full year results due to unresolved outstanding loans negotiations with banks.

=========

Trading is a mental game

Today I trade EUR/USD in the morning.

Again i thought I see a pattern. Again I thought I see indicators

But now I know i see nothing but revenge to make back the 35 pips I lost yesterday.

One should not trade EUR/USD in the morning. There could be a whipsaw when London open.

We all know this. Yet I traded and lost another 30 pips.

Discipline is something easy to say but difficult to do.

We all could do well to follow the rules....

Even if I win today, I broke the rule. Must less I lost.

So here's the story..

Trade well. Trade clearly with trading rules.

No demo can teach that :)

22 Mar 10 : Shorted City Dev

Long time never short anything. I usually fail miserably at shorting. Not sure how it will be this time.

Shorted City Dev (2 lots only) @ $10.68 based on it breaking several MA.

==========

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 22 March 2010

DJIA: 10741.98 -37.19
Nasdaq Composite: 2374.41 -16.87

US stocks slipped last Friday as the strengthening of greenback dragged down commodity shares. In particular, the technology and telecom sectors plummeted following Palm’s steeper-than-expected quarterly losses and forward guidance that a big build-up of inventory will further drag on current-quarter revenue, which led two brokerage houses to cut their target prices on the company to US$0.

For the week, all the major indices ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.10% and S&P 500 climbed 0.86% to end at 1159.90. Nasdaq composite rose a marginal 0.29%.

The week ahead brings a series of reports on housing, employment and durable goods orders as well as the earnings reports of companies including those of Best Buy and Oracle. On Monday, there are no market-moving economic or profit reports scheduled.

For the week, US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$0.56 or 0.69% to settle at US$80.68 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

A mixed overnight close on Wall Street last Thursday signaled a cautious broader market which the local bourse took leads from on Friday trading. The STI ended a mere 1.76 points higher to close at 2915.7. A last minute sell-off of DBS wiped out the bulk of the earlier gains on the benchmark index. For the week, the STI gained 1.19% or 34.34 points.

Expect market to trade lower today taking cues from the weaker overnight close from Wall Street last Friday. Key focus by the market for the week include US economic news on February existing and new home sales due on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss further on Greece’s debt woes. Any perceived reluctance by the EU to offer financial aid to Greece may re-ignite concerns about a Greek debt default.

===


Mid day March 22. STI retreated at mid-day

Friday's options had Wall Street limping into a negative close but the below average volumes that had accompanied the rally left much lingering doubts about its sustainability. As the rally sputters, traders tend to hunt for bad news. The nervous Euro dollars, Sterling pounds, US-China Yuan exchange rate spat are more than enough fuel to get the bears going. The STI index retreated -10.10 points at 2905.60 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 560mil shares with a value of $469mil traded.

Despite the recent rise, turnover has been thin with the exceptional few situational issues that may hog the limelight once in a while. Traders note that second year rallies ( since the March 2009 low) may not be as rewarding. `I think most people will play conservative' a dealer said. C&O pharmaceutical extended gains, rising 2 cents at 40.5 cents on rumours some hedge funds were building a stake in the company. DBS bounce 24 cents at $14.36 on some bargain hunting after Friday's `unusual' last minute `marking-d o wn' that took the stock over 40 cents lower. Venture Corp rose 15 cents at $8.81 as investors saw recent weakness as an opportunity to buy; in order to be entitled to the 50 cents dividend. Other stocks that rose were STX PanOcean, HL Asia, Etika, UOB, Jardine strategic, APB and Creative Technology that rose between 2 and 48 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson , OUE, City Developments, OCBC bank, SGX, Noble Group, Singapore Land and GuocoLand fell between 2 and 68 cents.

===

Market close March 22. STI back below 2,900 level

Lingering doubts about the sustainability of the current rally led to more profit taking in the second session. The STI index retreated 26.52 points at 2889.18 points. For every stock that rose, nearly 2.5 fell. Turnover was 1bil shares with a value of $1bil traded.

Despite the recent rise, turnover has been thin with the exceptional few situational issues that may hog the limelight once in a while. Traders note that second year rallies (since the March 2009 low) may not be as rewarding.

C&O Pharmaceutical extended gains, rising 2 cents at 40.5 cents on rumours some hedge funds were building a stake in the company.

DBS bounced 17 cents at $14.36 on some bargain hunting after Friday's `unusual' last minute `marking-down' that took the stock over 40 cents lower. Venture Corp rose 11 cents at $8.77 as investors saw recent weakness as an opportunity to buy; in order to be entitled to the 50 cents dividend. Other stocks that rose were STX PanOcean, HL Asia, Etika, UOB, Jardine Strategic, APB and Cre a tive Technology that rose between 2 and 48 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson , Jardine C&C, UOB, OUE, and City Dev fell between 12 and 46 cents.


====

19 Mar 10 : Goodpack rocks

Analyzed Goodpack 2 days ago but yesterday was so distracted by FX Trading that I forgot to buy Goodpack. It rocked today. Sigh. But at least i am now even more confident of my analysis :)

===

Mid Day March 19. Selective blue chip buying pushed STI higher.

It an an uneven day for US stocks with the Dow Jones Industrials propelling to its 8th day of gain while other indices failed to rise to the occasion. The divergence was an indication of caution in the broader market, a view that seems to be similar in the local bourse. Selective blue chip buying pushed the STI index 9.80 points higher at 2923.74 points. Market breadth was flat at best. Turnover was light on 456mil shares with a value of $504mil traded.

TCIL rose 15 cents at HK$1.60 following the release of its 2009 full year results that was a seven fold jump over 2008. The company proposed a 4 cents dividend and a married trade of 5.79mil shares at HK$1.50 had some speculating over who the buyer was. Some traders noted that substantial shareholder Guoco Group limited had been buying TCIL shares and own about 18.1 per cent of the company. C&O Pharmaceutical rose 3 cents at 37.5 cents as investors eye the 4 cents dividend that it will pay. `Some traders are picking rumours of a huge buy order from a hedge fund' a dealer said. Sembmarine added 2 cents at $4.04 but was off its $4.09 high after the company said it won a $550mil accomodation topside contract. Also higher were shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, UOB, Venture Corp, OCBC bank, SGX, Shangrila Asia, HL Asia and GuocoLand that rose between 3 and $1.30.

On the balance, shares of SIA, STX Panocean, Keppel Corp, OUE, Wilmar, NOL, Parkway, SATs Services, M1 and Parkway eased between 2 and 22 cents.


====

Market close March 19. Profit taking whittles STI's earlier gains

Selective blue chip buying o vercome some profit taking to edge the STI index 1.76 points higher at 2915.70 points. Market breadth was flat at best. Turnover was light on 1.05 bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.

TCIL rose 16 cents at HK$1.61 following the release of its 2009 full year results that was a seven fold jump over 2008. The company proposed a 4 cents dividend and a married trade of 5.79mil shares at HK$1.50 had some speculating over who the buyer was. Some traders noted that substantial shareholder Guoco Group Limited had been buying TCIL shares and own about 18.1 per cent of the company.

C&O Pharmaceutical rose 4 cents at 38.5 cents as investors eye the 4 cents dividend that it will pay. `Some traders are picking rumours of a huge buy order from a hedge fund' a dealer said.

Sembmarine declined 8 cents at $3.94 and was off its $4.09 high despite the company saying it won a $550mil accomodation topside contract. Also higher were shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine S t rategic, UOB, Venture Corp, OCBC bank, SGX, Shangrila Asia, HL Asia and GuocoLand that rose between 3 and $1.30.

On the balance, shares of SIA, STX Panocean, Keppel Corp, Parkway, DBS and City Dev, eased between 7 and 76 cents.

18 Mar 10 : Market Update

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 18 March 2010

DJIA: 10733.67 +47.69
Nasdaq Composite: 2389.09 +11.08

US market continued its seven consecutive day of advance on Wednesday following decisions by the US and Japanese central banks to keep interest rates low, upbeat economic readings and the Senate passed a key jobs bill. In a widely expected move, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) voted to keep interest rates at historical lows near zero percent and echoed past statements that rates will remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” of time. The market also welcomed Japan’s decision to hold interest rates at a low 0.1% and double the amount of money available to banks through a short-term lending program.

Positive sentiment continued with the release of upbeat economic readings on Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell 0.6% in February, lower than an expected fall of 0.2%, from a 1.4% gain in January. Core-PPI excluding the volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in February, in line with expectations, from a gain of 0.3% in January. A sustained period of low pricing pressure would enable the Fed to keep interest rates low for a while.

Market also welcomed news that the Senate passed a US$17.6 bil jobs bill on Wednesday; the bill is the first in a series of bills designed to help bring unemployment rate down from the current 9.7%. The measures include tax breaks and funding for highway projects.

All the major indices ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.45% while S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 1,166.21. Nasdaq composite gained 0.47%.

On Thursday, market will look forward to the economic readings on the Consumer Price Index, Leading Economic Indicators and weekly jobless claims. Federal Express will also be releasing its quarterly results on the same day.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$1.23 to settle at US$82.93 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

Most Asian markets rose between 0.4% and 1.7%, taking positive leads from a US market rally on Tuesday after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at record lows and echoed past statements that rates will remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” of time. The STI index continued its advance, gaining 22.87 points to close at 2919.30. For every stock that fell, 2.51 rose. Turnover improved with 1.70bil shares with a value of $1.58bil traded.

Most of the activity was in low-priced second line shares, mainly a mix of those, which have reportedly applied or a dual listing in Hong Kong. Swing Media reignited dual listing fever being the latest to announce such intentions. The stock finished unchanged at 6 cents on 36mil shares after announcing plans to dual list in Hong Kong. Epure, which was seeking to list 430mil new shares in Hong Kong, rose 8.5 cents at $1.01cents on 30mil shares. Other heavily traded shares include Genting and Golden Agri.

New listing Qingmei slumped below its 31 cents offering to end at 27 cents. It debut at 29.5 cents and had many stag sellers regurgitating their positions.

In the absence of fresh leads, expect the local bourse to consolidate today, notwithstanding the positive overnight close on Wall Street, as investors are likely to take some profit off the table in view of the recent market rally spanning eight out of the past nine trading days where the STI has gained about 5.5% over the period.

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Mid Day March 18. STI eased in early trading but rebounded to close higher.

Benign US February inflation data helped US equities extend gains and pushed the key indices there to their best close in 17 months. Distorting the move was perhaps talks of short covering as traders rushed to neutralize their wrong positions ahead of options expiration this week. Some brokers were more cautious of the recent advance given that it had not been broad based and advised clients to be selective in their purchases. `In fact, one could use the current buoyancy to sell " stocks that they never intended to own"' a dealer noted. The STI index eased in early trading but rebounded to end 4.54 points higher at 2923.84 points. Market breadth was flat at best with the majority of issues unchanged. Turnover was light on 708mil shares with a value of $714mil traded.

Shares of Midas (a dual listing aspirant) rallied 4 cents at $1.08 on 27mil shares today. `There is no fresh news, I think its just a `passing of the baton' a dealer said. Epure shares that rallied much yesterday eased 1.5 cent at $0.995. China XLX shares rose 1 cent at 59 cents buoyed by a broker's buy note with a target of 72 cents. Typical of `buy rumour sell news', Genting shares retreated 1 cents at 95.5 cents on 71mil shares. Traders had in recent session bidded up the stock ahead of today's opening of the Universal Studios theme park.

Stocks that fell were SIA Engineering, F&N, UOI, NOL, HPL, Keppel T&T, SIA and Ezra that fell between 2 and 7 cents.

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18 Mar 10 : Shorted GBP/JPY

Shorted GBP/JPY when it started to show Lower Lows and Lower Highs. Trade started off with a big loss as the price rebounded back but in the next 3 15 mins candle, it dropped and gave me 60 pips profit. I then protected 30 pips profit and expected it to drop further. I was aiming for 100+ pips profit for this trade as the strength of the red candles were pretty strong.

Unfortunately it rebounded very quickly in the 4th candle and I was out with 30 pips of profit. It is okay. A profit is a profit :)

Blue = EP = Entry
Red = SL = Stop Loss
Orange = Exit Point = Profit Protection Hit

17 Mar 10 : Market ROCKS

Market was really hot today. Prices shoot up and create new highs. Wonderful. Amazing.. Except..

I have ZERO positions to ride this hot market today.

While it was good that I no longer try to be opposite (previously I love to short uptrending stock), but there is a problem. I have ZERO positions to ride this hot market today.

Reason ? My stop loss (actually profit protection targets) were all taken up in the past few days including NOL, Yanlord, Epure (OUCH) and Ying Li. They were all hit by the slowness of the market in the past week and also because I moved my Profit Protection target close. I ended up with profits but too early and too painful as I watched the prices go up more (actually to think about it, better than losing right :p)

It is an on-going debate. How to set a proper stop loss (or PP) such that you can let the share raise and enjoy the uptrend while not feeling painful about leaving money on the table.

When can I get good at this :)

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Pre-Market Open Commentary for 17 March 2010

DJIA: 10685.98 +43.83
Nasdaq Composite: 2378.01 +15.80

US market closed higher on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed), in a widely expected move, voted to keep interest rates at historical lows near zero percent and echoed past statements that rates will remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” of time. The Fed further mentioned that the US economic conditions continue to improve and that the job market is stabilizing and while the Fed expects economic growth to be “moderate” in the short run, the bankers said activity could pick up in the future as inflation remains tame. Also, the Fed’s plan to buy US$1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities will end later this month as previously announced.

Shares were further underpinned by news that rating agency Standard & Poor’s did not downgrade Greece’s credit rating after a warning last month of a possible downgrade, allaying concerns about the potential for sovereign debt crisis to spread. The agency viewed that the Greece government’s fiscal consolidation program as supportive of the current ratings level.

The readings on the housing market were upbeat with new home construction falling 5.9% to an annual rate of 575,000 in February, against expectations of an annual rate of 570,000, from a revised 622,000 in January while building permits slipped 1.6% to an annual rate of 612,000 in February, better-than-expectations of a fall to an annual rate of 601,000. A separate reading also showed that import prices slipped 0.3% in February, the first decline since July 2009, from a revised increase of 1.3% in January but excluding fuel, import prices gained 0.2%. Export prices also slipped 0.5% last month, following a revised 0.7% rise in January.

Several news flow on the corporate front also brought cheers to the market, and these include Intel’s unveiling of new processors which can deliver up to 60% greater performance than the previous generation processor while General Electric guided analysts with a higher profit and dividend payment in 2011.

All the major indices ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.41% while S&P 500 rose 0.78% to 1,159.46. Nasdaq composite gained 0.67%.

Market will look forward to the Fed’s statement, particularly on hints about when the bank plans to hike rates, on Wednesday. Other economic reports due include readings on producer price index and the weekly crude oil inventories.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose US$1.90 to settle at US$81.70 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

The Singapore market was broadly quiet with minimal investor participation, taking cues from a weak Hong Kong market but advanced in the final trading hour following a firm European opening. The STI rose 22.10 points to close at 2896.43, in part due to program trade buying ahead of an expected rise on Wall Street as well as intra-day short-covering towards the end of the day. For every stock that fell, 1.31 rose. Turnover remained thin with 1.14 bil shares with a value of $989m traded.

Apart from weaknesses in the three members of the Jardine group, the STI was pushed higher by SingTel and banking shares. Downside also came from SIA, falling 4 cents at $15.74 after the company reported its February operating statistics. Although the February figures looked encouraging, there were views that the numbers were supported by Chinese New Year falling in February in 2010 and the Singapore Airshow.

Expect the local bourse to trade modestly firmer today taking cues from the positive overnight close on Wall Street. However, market sentiment is likely to remain cautious, as investors await hints on when the US central banker plans to hike interest rates in the Federal Reserve meeting ending tonight. The relatively low number of shares trading hands of late are also suggesting that many investors are on the sidelines awaiting further evidence of an economic improvement in US and globally. Also lingering on the background is market concern of an increasing pressure by the PRC government to further tighten monetary policy.

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Mid Day March 17. US stock rally provided positive lead for Asian market.

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at record lows and made no change to its pledge to keep them low at `extended period'. US stocks rallied on the message and provided the lead for a positive day in Asia. Asian markets rose between 0.4 and 1 per cent with the STI index adding 19.14 points at 2915.57 points. For every stock that fell, 3 rose. Turnover was 990mil shares with a value of $822mil traded.

Singapore property stocks have been receiving upgrades of late given the surprisingly good take up rates at launches. Wing Tai rose 6 cents at $1.88 after a broker opined that 50 per cent of its L'VIV project has been sold at an average of $2000 per square feet. This inspired gains of between 1 and 10 cents in the shares of Soilbuild, Ho Bee, SC Global and City Developments. Swing Media reignited dual listing fever being the latest to announce such intentions. The stock finished half cent up at 7 cents on 36mil shares after announcing plans to dual list in Hong Kong. Epure; that was seeking to list 430mil new shares in Hong Kong, rose 5 cents at 97 cents on 17mil shares.

New listing Qingmei slumped below its 31 cents offering to end at 28 cents. It debut at 29.5 cents and had many stag sellers regurgitating their positions. Other stocks that fell were Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C, SIA, UOl, Wilmar and Creative technology that eased between 1 and 62 cents.
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Market close March 17. Asian stocks close higher

Asian markets rose between 0.4 and 1 per c ent with the STI index adding 22.87 points at 2919.30 points. For every stock that fell, 2.5 rose. Turnover was 1.69bil shares with a value of $1.57bil traded.

Singapore property stocks have been receiving upgrades of late given the surprisingly good take up rates at launches. Wing Tai rose 7 cents at $1.89 after a broker opined that 50 per cent of its L'VIV project has been sold at an average of $2000 per square feet. This inspired gains of between 1 and 10 cents in the shares of Soilbuild, Ho Bee, SC Global and City Developments.

Swing Media reignited dual listing fever being the latest to announce such intentions. The stock finished unchanged at 6 cents on 36mil shares after announcing plans to dual list in Hong Kong. Epure, that was seeking to list 430mil new shares in Hong Kong, rose 8.5 cents at $1.01 cents on 30mil shares.

New listing Qingmei slumped below its 31 cents offering to end at 27 cents. It debut at 29.5 cents and had many stag seller s regurgitating their positions.

Other stocks that fell were Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C, SIA, UOl, Wilmar and Creative technology that eased between 1 and 62 cents.






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Adding Price to Fibonacci Level in MT4

MT4 tips – add price to fibonacci level

Standard MT4 Fibo does not show a price. Just the Fibo level. It would be useful to add the price in as per this screen shot:

All you have to do to get this feature is add “%$”, in the Fibo level settings. In the description field. For example “61.8 %$”.

The two Fibonacci percentage retracement levels considered the most important in trading are 38.2% and 62.8%.

Other important retracement percentages include 75%, 50%, and 33%.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 16th Mar 2010

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in unusual one-day session left the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.25% as had been widely expected. Also unaltered was the characterization of the economy as "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period".

The descriptive sections on economic activity, household and business spending and inflation are unchanged from the January 27 statement. A "weak labor market" has become "high employment". Credit remains "tight", "investment in structures" was "still contracting" in January and now "nonresidential structures" are "declining" and "housing starts have been flat at a depressed level".

The $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities and $175 billion of agency debt purchases will end on time at the end of the month. The committee has dropped the phrase "will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in the financial markets", and replaced it with "will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability".

The mild market speculation that the committee might add another 25 basis points to the discount rate was disappointed. The economic trajectory portrayed in the six weeks since the last FOMC statement is essentially unchanged, though its aim is ever so slightly higher. The Fed will not be hurried by any considerations other than the ones it has chosen. There is profound predictability in the Federal Reserve views and prescriptions for the US economy.

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16 Mar 10 : Market Up At Last Hour...

Pre-Market Open Commentary for 16 March 2010


DJIA: 10642.15 +17.46
Nasdaq Composite: 2362.21 -5.45

US market clawed back earlier big losses to end mixed on Monday as investor mulled over Moody’s warning to downgrade US’ AAA rating although the rating agency quickly noted that there is no imminent rating pressure. Also weighing the market was a proposed bank regulation bill, which was released ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday, aimed at preventing another financial crisis. The bill calls for a new consumer protection bureau within the Federal Reserve that would regulate all lending transactions. It would also set up a new process to put struggling firms under government control and break up large companies if they pose a major threat to the stability of the system.

The economic readings were upbeat with industrial production rising 0.1% in February, against expectations of an unchanged reading, after rising 0.9% in January while capacity utilization rose to 72.7%, against expectations of an unchanged reading, from 72.5% in January. A regional reading on manufacturing also came in better-than-expected, falling to 22.86 in March, against expectations of a fall to 22, from 24.91 in February.

Several news flow on the corporate front also shaped the market and these include Philips-Van Heusen buying fashion brand Tommy Hilfiger from Apax Partners in a cash-and-stock deal worth US$3bil while Chordiant Software agreed to be acquired by Pegasystems for US$161.5 mil in cash, which cheered the market. On the other hand, Google announced it is close to shutting down its PRC search engine, amid strict government monitoring and a recent targeted cyber attack, which dragged on other technology shares.

The major indices ended mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.16% while S&P 500 closed largely unchanged, inching up 0.05% to 1,150.51. Nasdaq composite dipped 0.23%.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss on interest rate policy and the outlook of the economy. The US central bank is widely expected to hold the fed fund rate steady at historic lows near zero and with expectation of no policy change, investors are more focused on the Fed’s statement, particularly on hints about when the bank plans to hike rates. Other economic reports due include readings on new home construction, building permits and February import and export prices.

US light crude oil for April delivery fell US$1.44 to settle at US$79.80 a barrel.



In Singapore today:

Asian markets were largely lower as fears of further monetary tightening in the PRC and the US Federal Reserve meeting over Tuesday and Wednesday kept buyers sidelined. The STI shed 7.03 points at 2874.35, tailing the Hang Seng Index’s 1% decline. For every stock that rose, 1.38 fell. Turnover was thin with 1.0 bil shares with a value of $957m traded.

Shares of Avaplas doubled or jumped 5.5 cents at 10 cents on 1.7mil shares as a change in substantial shareholding ownership triggered a general offer. Thailand's Cal-Comp bought a 53.08 per cent stake and triggered the 10 cents general offer.

Jardine Strategic (JSH) shares extended its gains, adding 32 cents at US$20.80 helped by a foreign broker's buy recommendation. JSH had announced a share buy back tender of US$250m at a price of between US$18 to US$19. Jardine Matheson rose 70 cents at US$34.10.

Expect the local bourse to be range-bound and sentiment to be cautious today taking cues from the mixed and subdued overnight close on Wall Street. Investors are likely to remain sidelined in light of renewed concerns of increasing pressure to hike interest rates in the PRC and as market awaits for hints on when the central bank plans to hike interest rates in the US Federal Reserve meeting over Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Mid Day March 16. Asian markets confined to narrow trading range.

Wall Street eeked out a last hour gain after much of the day in the red. A Federal Reserve meeting later today would most certainly result in no change for easy money policy. Most economists will expect the US FED to retain a key phrase in its statement that will keep rates extremely low for an " extended period". Asian markets were kept in limbo, confined to a narrow trading range. The STI index rose 5.38 points at 2879.71 points. Market breadth was mildly negative on contra selling of scripts due. Turnover was 678mil shares with a value of $452mil traded.

After starting with some modest gains in early trades, the broader market eased as buying momentum waned. Dealers said buyers were keeping their `gun powder dry' looking for opportunities to `buy the dip'. `I think buyers could re-emerge after the FED meeting' a dealer said. Best World shares rose 3 cents at 40.5 cents on rumours that company may make an acquisition.

`The company is sitting on $36mil and could use it for acquisitions' a trader said. Genting notched half a cent gain at 95 cents following a buy report from a foreign broker. Stocks that rose were DBS, UOB, City Developments, SingTel, OCBC bank, M1 and Etika that rose between 3 and 16 cents.

On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, SIA, SGX, Wilmar, Haw Par, ST Engineering, Yanlord and NOL fell between 2 and 60 cents.