How to Create a Technical Strategy: A Guide for Beginners
Performing analysis and combining indicator data to create a viable forex strategy often appears like a task suited only to the most experienced and professional traders. Beginners are intimidated sometimes by the mystical quality of the word “strategy”, and tend to associate the formulation of technical scenarios with the genius minds of Caesar, Napoleon, or Warren Buffet, for example. On the other hand, there is nothing that exceptional about the ability to design a strategy. Instead of timidity and worry about doing something wrong, it is much more productive and meaningful to be bold and try as many ideas and as possible as they present themselves to your mind. Since there is nothing right or wrong about a technical strategy as a general principle (let’s recall that technical tools never predict anything with complete precision and certainty) it’s clear that the search for a perfect strategy is futile from the beginning. Yet the fear of failure is what makes so many traders apprehensive about creating their own approaches. The merit of each strategy is strongly tied to the market conditions and the personal qualities of the trader using it. What may work perfectly for George Soros as a long term strategy may be unsuitable to a retail trader with less conviction and financial power to survive financial misfortunes. If we also recall that market dynamics change continuously, that no technical approach will be successful at all times by definition, we will acknowledge that the fears about creating a botched technical strategy are in fact empty. We do need experience, and practice in formulating our strategies, but those can not be acquired if we are frightful about making mistakes.
Now let’s take a look at how a technical strategy in a simple, step-by-step approach. In time, you may develop an altogether different method, but in the mind this template may serve your needs for clarity as a beginner.
1. Identify the type of the market
The first step must be the identification of nature of the market. Our choice of indicators will largely depend on the main characteristics of the market relating to its volatility, and whether it presents a range pattern or a trend for exploitation. It is not hard to determine what type of market the one that we are analyzing is, and only a cursory study with a few basic tools like trend lines, or horizontal lines for determining support/resistance levels should be sufficient.
The longer the timeframe, the more relaxed we may be in considering the impact of spreads, or the need for precision in determining the most suitable indicator type. In fact, it is a general principle that the longer the time frame of your chart, or the average lifespan of your positions, the easier it is to profit. Not only do long-term strategies decrease the proportional value of the spread cost, but they also entail a larger number of opportunities at the shorter timeframes that constitute the longer-term. You will have more chances to exit a faulty trade.
2. Choose the technical tools
The key point at this stage is picking only the tools that contribute to your goals in the trade, and provide the degree of precision that you require. The precision of signals generated by RSI and MACD are different, for example. Although the first will be very clear about the overbought/oversold levels in a range pattern, the MACD is used in conjunction with the divergence/convergence phenomenon, and is vague with regard to trends and market action as a result. In addition, your own risk tolerance, and money management style play a great role in deciding which indicators will yield the greatest value in your trades. For example, if you prefer a low volatility, low risk-reward trading style, indicators that perform best in strongly directional markets, such as the Williams Oscillator, will not find frequent use in your strategies. Conversely, as a trend follower, your strategies may consist entirely of moving averages.
At this point it is important to recall that there are no standard ingredients for forex strategies. It is definitely possible to create a forex strategy, and a perfectly viable one with only support and resistance levels and the RSI, or with moving averages and trend lines, as we mentioned. The decision about which indicators shall be used must not be arbitrary, but must depend strongly on the market’s type, and the trader’s own style and preferences in trading. On the web it’s common to encounter sites where a cocktail of various strategies are offered or even sold to traders as valid configurations in many types of markets. Once again, we’ll mention that the market’s dynamics change all the time, and that there’s no perfect tool or strategy that will be valid under all circumstances.
For those who seek a more precise list of what kind of tools may be usable in different market conditions, here’s a sample list.
Trend Patterns: It is possible to create workable strategies with only moving averages in trending markets. In this case, the trader will treat each major moving average level (30-50-100) as being an attraction center, hurdle, goal, whatever you’d like to term them, between which the price action will travel. Combining moving averages, while measuring how overextended the short term action is in various legs of the trend with various momentum indicators, is a generally valid method for the creation of forex strategies.
Range Patterns: Range patterns can be traded efficiently with support and resistance lines, and oscillators. The fundamental principle in the construction of forex strategies for range patterns is defining a range area with the support/resistance lines, and then remaining confident and aggressive as long as the price action remains in this region. Many different approaches, including layered entries, staggered trades on multiple timeframes, as well as simple range bouncing between the support and resistance points are all possible, and can be formulated with only a medium degree of learning and exertion of our mental powers.
Volatility: The Bollinger Bands, as well moving averages can be used to gauge volatility. When the moving averages of varying periods come closer, or the Bands contract, we have a low volatility environment, and vice versa. On this basis, scalpers, or trend followers may follow their favored methods.
3. Decide the Inputs
Once the basic structure of the strategy is created, it is time to decide on the various inputs related to the timeframe and period of the indicators. Only in cases where the price is demonstrating a well-identified pattern of periodic oscillations should we change the basic configuration of the indicator periods. On the other hand, there are some arbitrary values that help clarify the visual signals, and these can be modified in accordance with your tastes.
There are also some indicators where the starting conditions can be crucial to analysis. With Fibonacci Indicators, you can get drastically different results depending on where the initial phase is located. In that case, it will be a better course to carefully pick price extremes and apply our strategy beginning at these values in order to get a better long term perspective. Thus, if you’ll apply your trend strategy to this week’s price action, and it is the case that today’s trend is part of a bigger one with origins a month ago, it is better to take this extended period into account while deciding the inputs to the indicators, and performing the analysis.
4. Perform the final analysis
The final analysis involves the comparison of different approaches that arose during the examination phase, and the choice of the most favorable one with respect to profit potential, and risk profile. You can make use of back testing as well at this stage, but only to see if you made simple mistakes in formulating your strategies. For example, if you were creating a strategy that would avoid periods of high volatility, a little back testing may be useful to see if this goal is achieved. But back testing can never be used for determining the profitability of a strategy. This is because although volatility is well-defined as a concept, profitability is not. It is not hard to recognize a volatile market, but there’s no such definition about a profitable market. (The conditions that lead to profitability will be different in every market; they cannot be back tested.)
5. Execute the Trade
Once all the stages are completed, it is time to execute our strategy. It is important that you have enough confidence in your skills as a trader at this stage and avoid making arbitrary changes to your well-crafted strategy every time the market seems to be behaving in an unfathomable fashion. In the absence of major events (such as a major news release that contradicts the previous analysis, or the emergence of a divergence/convergence pattern in opposition to our previous scenario), the trade should be left to run its course, for better or worse, so that we can gain the necessary experience in forming and testing a strategy. There’s no expectation that each strategy will result in profits, and indeed, if your goals is discovering such a tool, you’re advised to never begin forex trading. You may be better equipped to complete your quest as an academic. As traders, we use the tools available, and they do not allow perfect predictions about the future at this stage.
Showing newest 18 of 24 posts from December 2009. Show older posts
Showing newest 18 of 24 posts from December 2009. Show older posts
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
My Trading Book Takes a Holiday Break
Will be back in the New Year 2010.
Wishing everyone a most happy Christmas and New Year.
May 2010 be a great profitable year for all of us in Shares, FX and Properties !
Labels:
Economy
23 Dec 09 : USA Markets are having a Merry Merry time
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 23 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10464.93 +50.79
Nasdaq Composite: 2252.67 +15.01
________________________________________
Wall Street opened on an upbeat note after a government report showed that the economy grew in the third-quarter although at a more tepid pace than expected. The final revision of third-quarter gross domestic product rose 2.2% in the three months ending September, less than expectations of a 2.7% gain and below the 3.5% growth rate initially reported by the government in October. Nonetheless, the final growth rate was a marked improvement over the previous quarters in which the economic activity shrank and this brought cheers to the market. The advance was further lifted by an upbeat report on existing home sales in November, which rose 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54mil units, better than expectations of a rise to 6.25mil units and the highest level in three years. However, the growth was driven largely by government subsidies, including an US$8,000 tax credit and the Federal Reserve’s US$1.25 trillion mortgage asset purchasing program.
All the major indices advanced further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.49% while S&P 500 rose 0.36% to end at 1118.02. Nasdaq composite advanced 0.67%.
Notwithstanding the holiday-shortened week, there are still a number of economic readings due over the rest of the week, including personal income and spending in November, consumer confidence, new home sales and the weekly crude oil inventories report due on Wednesday. On Thursday, the durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims reports will be released.
US light crude oil for February delivery rose US$0.68 to settle at US$74.40 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The regional markets advanced on Tuesday, boosted by strong Wall Street gains overnight. On the local bourse, the STI index surged an impressive 37.01 points to 2823.82, underpinned largely by banks and the thinly traded Jardine group, namely Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic. However, the volume was low and activity was muted. For every stock that fell, 1.49 gained. Turnover was 1.21bil shares with a value of only $997.2mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Australian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies’ shares, which are presently listed in Australia, were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit.
With just under ten trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforeseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, Kep Land, Kep Corp, City Developments, and SIA, which rose between 10 and 86 cents.
Expect market to advance further today, albeit at a more modest level compared to Tuesday, taking cues from overnight gains in Wall Street and in part from early window-dressing. Trading activity is expected to remain muted in this holiday-shortened week.
=====
Mid day December 23. Asian shares edge up on signs economies are improving
The Santa Claus rally in the US continued with its key indices putting on between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent. Trading was light and the quiet happy mood was bolstered by the better than expected US home sales report. Asian markets were higher underpinned by the firm Wall Street end and the cautiously optimistic 2010 outlook. The STI index rose 14.33 points at 2838.15 points, a new high for the year. Market breadth deteriorated through the session as traders closed their positions ahead of the short trading week. Turnover was light on 534mil shares with a value of $453mil traded.
Shares of Z-Obee took a tumble after its plans for a dual listing in Hong Kong hit a snag. The shares fell 4.5 cents at 19 cents. Noble Group rose 14 cents at $3.15 as a series of asset disposals could land Noble Group with a 24 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal; Australia's largest independent coal producer. ST Engineering rose 3 cents at $3.22 after it announced a US$87mil comtract win to build an enchanced version of a T-AGS 60 Class oceanograhic survery ship for the US Navy. Other issues higher today were Jardine Strategic, UOB, Olam, DBS, UniAsia, Indoagric, SGX, UOL, Ezra and F&N that rose between 1 and 18 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Hotel Royal, Keppel Corp, SC Global, Wilmar, Cosco Corp and NOL fell between half and 14 cents.
========
Market Close December 23. STI closed higher for the day
The Santa Claus rally in the US continued with its key indices putting on between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent. Trading was light and the quiet happy mood was bolstered by the better than expected US home sales report. Asian markets were higher underpinned by the firm Wall Street end and the cautiously optimistic 2010 outlook. The STI index rose 17.74 points at 2841.56 points, a new high for the year. Market breadth deteriorated through the session as traders closed their positions ahead of the short trading week. Turnover was light on 1bil shares with a value of $959mil traded.
Shares of Z-Obee took a tumble after its plans for a dual listing in Hong Kong hit a snag. The shares fell 4.5 cents at 19 cents. Noble Group rose 13 cents at $3.14 as a series of asset disposals could land Noble Group with a 24 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal; Australia's largest independent coal producer. ST Engineering rose 4 cents at $3.23 after it announced a US$87mil contract win to build an enhanced version of a T-AGS 60 Class oceanographic survey ship for the US Navy. Other issues higher today were Jardine Strategic, UOB, DBS, Great Eastern, Creative, Wing Tai, UOL, Ho Bee and F&N that rose between 5 and 16 cents.
On the balance, shares of City Dev, Yanlord, HsuFuChi, Hyflux, and Pan Hong fell between 4 and 16 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10464.93 +50.79
Nasdaq Composite: 2252.67 +15.01
________________________________________
Wall Street opened on an upbeat note after a government report showed that the economy grew in the third-quarter although at a more tepid pace than expected. The final revision of third-quarter gross domestic product rose 2.2% in the three months ending September, less than expectations of a 2.7% gain and below the 3.5% growth rate initially reported by the government in October. Nonetheless, the final growth rate was a marked improvement over the previous quarters in which the economic activity shrank and this brought cheers to the market. The advance was further lifted by an upbeat report on existing home sales in November, which rose 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54mil units, better than expectations of a rise to 6.25mil units and the highest level in three years. However, the growth was driven largely by government subsidies, including an US$8,000 tax credit and the Federal Reserve’s US$1.25 trillion mortgage asset purchasing program.
All the major indices advanced further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.49% while S&P 500 rose 0.36% to end at 1118.02. Nasdaq composite advanced 0.67%.
Notwithstanding the holiday-shortened week, there are still a number of economic readings due over the rest of the week, including personal income and spending in November, consumer confidence, new home sales and the weekly crude oil inventories report due on Wednesday. On Thursday, the durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims reports will be released.
US light crude oil for February delivery rose US$0.68 to settle at US$74.40 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The regional markets advanced on Tuesday, boosted by strong Wall Street gains overnight. On the local bourse, the STI index surged an impressive 37.01 points to 2823.82, underpinned largely by banks and the thinly traded Jardine group, namely Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic. However, the volume was low and activity was muted. For every stock that fell, 1.49 gained. Turnover was 1.21bil shares with a value of only $997.2mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Australian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies’ shares, which are presently listed in Australia, were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit.
With just under ten trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforeseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, Kep Land, Kep Corp, City Developments, and SIA, which rose between 10 and 86 cents.
Expect market to advance further today, albeit at a more modest level compared to Tuesday, taking cues from overnight gains in Wall Street and in part from early window-dressing. Trading activity is expected to remain muted in this holiday-shortened week.
=====
Mid day December 23. Asian shares edge up on signs economies are improving
The Santa Claus rally in the US continued with its key indices putting on between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent. Trading was light and the quiet happy mood was bolstered by the better than expected US home sales report. Asian markets were higher underpinned by the firm Wall Street end and the cautiously optimistic 2010 outlook. The STI index rose 14.33 points at 2838.15 points, a new high for the year. Market breadth deteriorated through the session as traders closed their positions ahead of the short trading week. Turnover was light on 534mil shares with a value of $453mil traded.
Shares of Z-Obee took a tumble after its plans for a dual listing in Hong Kong hit a snag. The shares fell 4.5 cents at 19 cents. Noble Group rose 14 cents at $3.15 as a series of asset disposals could land Noble Group with a 24 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal; Australia's largest independent coal producer. ST Engineering rose 3 cents at $3.22 after it announced a US$87mil comtract win to build an enchanced version of a T-AGS 60 Class oceanograhic survery ship for the US Navy. Other issues higher today were Jardine Strategic, UOB, Olam, DBS, UniAsia, Indoagric, SGX, UOL, Ezra and F&N that rose between 1 and 18 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Hotel Royal, Keppel Corp, SC Global, Wilmar, Cosco Corp and NOL fell between half and 14 cents.
========
Market Close December 23. STI closed higher for the day
The Santa Claus rally in the US continued with its key indices putting on between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent. Trading was light and the quiet happy mood was bolstered by the better than expected US home sales report. Asian markets were higher underpinned by the firm Wall Street end and the cautiously optimistic 2010 outlook. The STI index rose 17.74 points at 2841.56 points, a new high for the year. Market breadth deteriorated through the session as traders closed their positions ahead of the short trading week. Turnover was light on 1bil shares with a value of $959mil traded.
Shares of Z-Obee took a tumble after its plans for a dual listing in Hong Kong hit a snag. The shares fell 4.5 cents at 19 cents. Noble Group rose 13 cents at $3.14 as a series of asset disposals could land Noble Group with a 24 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal; Australia's largest independent coal producer. ST Engineering rose 4 cents at $3.23 after it announced a US$87mil contract win to build an enhanced version of a T-AGS 60 Class oceanographic survey ship for the US Navy. Other issues higher today were Jardine Strategic, UOB, DBS, Great Eastern, Creative, Wing Tai, UOL, Ho Bee and F&N that rose between 5 and 16 cents.
On the balance, shares of City Dev, Yanlord, HsuFuChi, Hyflux, and Pan Hong fell between 4 and 16 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
22 Dec 09 : Closed off AUD/USD trade
I did an AUD/USD short trade yesterday.
Shorted at 0.8821
Closed at 0.8777
44 pips profit
Closed it off manually today when twice (2 times!) my TP was missed by 1 or 2 pip ! I dun like my trading firm :)
In the meantime, my Olam and Rotary continues to be miserable in the stock market :)
==========================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 22 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10414.14 +85.25
Nasdaq Composite: 2237.66 +25.97
________________________________________
Wall Street rallied on Monday following a combination of analyst upgrades and corporate deal-making and these include Alcoa’s announcement on a US$10.8bil joint venture with Saudi Arabia to develop a major mining operation and Morgan Stanley’s upgrade on the stock. Technology shares advanced after Barclays Capital upgraded Intel to overweight. The healthcare sector also rose after the Senate voted to end debate on revisions to major healthcare reform bill, a key step towards closing the controversial legislation, as well as on news that Sanofi-Aventis will buy retail health products maker, Chattem for US$1.9bil. Other corporate deals include mining equipment maker Bucyrus’ announcement to buy Terex Corp for US$1.3bil cash as well as a new offer by Spyker to General Motors for the Swedish car brand Saab.
All the major indices rallied, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.83% while S&P 500 rose 1.05% to end at 1114.05. Nasdaq composite surged 1.17%.
Tuesday will bring the government’s final revision of third-quarter gross domestic product and existing home sales in November.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$0.89 to settle at US$72.47 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
In line with a 1.1% drop in Hong Kong, the Singapore market fell 15.78 points at 2786.81, led largely by SingTel, DBS and UOB. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that rose, 1.39 fell. The holiday period has also led to the absence of many market participants and as a result, turnover was 1.04 bil shares with a value of only $964.2mil traded.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 77mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 51mil and penny issue EuNetworks, closing down half a cent to 1.5 cents on 33mil.
Jurong Cement was the top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 74 US cents to US$29.60 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 25 cents to $3.66. Top losers were banking issue DBS, down 24 cents to $14.56, JSH, down 20 US cents to US$17.20, and contract manufacturer Venture, down 16 cents to $8.56.
Expect the local bourse to advance taking cues from the overnight rally in Wall Street. However, trading activity is expected to be relatively subdued as most market participants have taken an early Christmas break.
==================
Mid Day December 22. Asian markets boosted by strong Wall Street session.
Asian markets were higher boosted by a strong Wall Street session on Monday. The STI index added 33.26points at 2820.07 points; albeit on low volumes. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 653mil shares with a value of $494mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Austrlian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies whose shares are listed in Australia were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit. With just under 10 trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, UOB, City Developments, SIA, Great Eastern, F&N, UOL, UIC, CapitalMall Trust and SGX that rose between 3 and 56 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX PanOcean, Indoagric, Hyflux, Epure, Jardine C&C, Ramba, UE and Allgreen eased between 1 and 60 cents.
===============
Market Close December 22. STI closed higher on low volume
Asian markets were higher boosted by a strong Wall Street session on Monday. The STI index added 37.01 points at 2823.82 points; albeit on low volumes. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $997mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Australian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies whose shares are listed in Australia were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit. With just under 10 trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforeseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, Kep Land, Kep Corp, City Developments, and SIA, that rose between 10 and 86 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX PanOcean, Heeton, Epure, Ezra, and Indo Agri, eased between 1 and 66 cents.
Shorted at 0.8821
Closed at 0.8777
44 pips profit
Closed it off manually today when twice (2 times!) my TP was missed by 1 or 2 pip ! I dun like my trading firm :)
In the meantime, my Olam and Rotary continues to be miserable in the stock market :)
==========================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 22 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10414.14 +85.25
Nasdaq Composite: 2237.66 +25.97
________________________________________
Wall Street rallied on Monday following a combination of analyst upgrades and corporate deal-making and these include Alcoa’s announcement on a US$10.8bil joint venture with Saudi Arabia to develop a major mining operation and Morgan Stanley’s upgrade on the stock. Technology shares advanced after Barclays Capital upgraded Intel to overweight. The healthcare sector also rose after the Senate voted to end debate on revisions to major healthcare reform bill, a key step towards closing the controversial legislation, as well as on news that Sanofi-Aventis will buy retail health products maker, Chattem for US$1.9bil. Other corporate deals include mining equipment maker Bucyrus’ announcement to buy Terex Corp for US$1.3bil cash as well as a new offer by Spyker to General Motors for the Swedish car brand Saab.
All the major indices rallied, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.83% while S&P 500 rose 1.05% to end at 1114.05. Nasdaq composite surged 1.17%.
Tuesday will bring the government’s final revision of third-quarter gross domestic product and existing home sales in November.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$0.89 to settle at US$72.47 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
In line with a 1.1% drop in Hong Kong, the Singapore market fell 15.78 points at 2786.81, led largely by SingTel, DBS and UOB. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that rose, 1.39 fell. The holiday period has also led to the absence of many market participants and as a result, turnover was 1.04 bil shares with a value of only $964.2mil traded.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 77mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 51mil and penny issue EuNetworks, closing down half a cent to 1.5 cents on 33mil.
Jurong Cement was the top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 74 US cents to US$29.60 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 25 cents to $3.66. Top losers were banking issue DBS, down 24 cents to $14.56, JSH, down 20 US cents to US$17.20, and contract manufacturer Venture, down 16 cents to $8.56.
Expect the local bourse to advance taking cues from the overnight rally in Wall Street. However, trading activity is expected to be relatively subdued as most market participants have taken an early Christmas break.
==================
Mid Day December 22. Asian markets boosted by strong Wall Street session.
Asian markets were higher boosted by a strong Wall Street session on Monday. The STI index added 33.26points at 2820.07 points; albeit on low volumes. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 653mil shares with a value of $494mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Austrlian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies whose shares are listed in Australia were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit. With just under 10 trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, UOB, City Developments, SIA, Great Eastern, F&N, UOL, UIC, CapitalMall Trust and SGX that rose between 3 and 56 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX PanOcean, Indoagric, Hyflux, Epure, Jardine C&C, Ramba, UE and Allgreen eased between 1 and 60 cents.
===============
Market Close December 22. STI closed higher on low volume
Asian markets were higher boosted by a strong Wall Street session on Monday. The STI index added 37.01 points at 2823.82 points; albeit on low volumes. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $997mil traded.
Shares of Noble Group were halted today amid talks that Australian miner Macarthur Coal was set to bid for Noble Group's 87.7 per cent stake in Gloucester Coal. Both companies whose shares are listed in Australia were halted today. Sources said that Noble had indicated that it preferred an all cash bid for its unit. With just under 10 trading days to go before the New Year, traders remained optimistic that barring any unforeseen events, markets should close the year with a bang. Stocks that rose today were Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, DBS, Kep Land, Kep Corp, City Developments, and SIA, that rose between 10 and 86 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX PanOcean, Heeton, Epure, Ezra, and Indo Agri, eased between 1 and 66 cents.
Labels:
FX Trading,
Olam,
Rotary
USD Dollar and USA Stock Market Going the Same Direction Finally ?
The dollar is rallying in tandem with stocks and commodities for the first time since before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy last year sparked the financial crisis, signaling the worst may be over for the greenback.
The currency, equities and raw materials are on pace for their first simultaneous two-month gain since 2008 as the U.S. Dollar Index rises the fastest in 10 months.
Correlated trading reflects growing confidence in the U.S. economy and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start draining some of the $12 trillion used to battle the worst global recession since World War II.
Until now, the dollar climbed when traders sought protection from turmoil created by the credit freeze that started in 2007. It weakened when they took advantage of record-low interest rates by selling the currency to finance holdings of higher-yielding overseas assets.
The Dollar Index -- which measures its performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona -- dropped 4.5 percent this year. Its tendency to fall when stocks rise and vice versa, which has prevailed since Lehman’s September 2008 collapse, is breaking down. Until Dec. 1, stocks and the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. currency gauge moved in opposite directions on seven of every 10 days this year. They’re in sync more than half the time this month.
News that the U.S. unemployment rate had fallen the most in three years pushed the Dollar Index up 1.7 percent on Dec. 4 as traders increased bets that economic growth would spur the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs. That was the biggest gain since Jan. 20, when the U.K.’s second bank bailout in three months increased demand for the dollar’s perceived safety.
“The forex market will anticipate the Fed tightening and price it into the dollar, leading the dollar to rally,” said Steven Englander, chief U.S. currency strategist in New York for Barclays Capital. “Because these programs are so unprecedented, you can already see a high degree of alarm in markets with respect to what the rates implications are going to be when they are withdrawn.”
Labels:
FX Trading
Monday, December 21, 2009
21 Dec 09 : Not a good day for me
Olam down
Rotary down
Capital Mall Asia down
Not good :)
================================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 21 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10328.89 +20.63
Nasdaq Composite: 2211.69 +31.64
________________________________________
Wall Street ended higher on Friday, led by technology stocks, following upbeat earnings reports from Oracle and Research in Motion. Oracle reported higher-than-expected earnings of 39 cents per share, against expectations of 36 cents per share while Research in Motion posted a jump in profits to $1.10 per share, from 69 cents per share a year ago. However, not all companies reported improvement in operations; Palm and Nike both reported worse-than-expected earnings in the second fiscal quarter.
For the week, the major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.36% and S&P 500 fell 0.36% to end at 1102.47. Nasdaq composite, in contrast, gained 0.98%.
Wall Street is expected to be quiet in this three-and-a-half day trading week and the low trading volume which tends to amplify small moves, could cause market volatility. On the reporting front, the week ahead brings a number of economic readings including the final revision to third-quarter gross domestic product, data on personal income and spending as well as the weekly jobless claims. There are no major reports expected on Monday.
For the week, US light crude oil for Januray delivery gained US$3.49, or 5.0%, to US$73.36 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The regional markets were hit on Friday by overnight losses on Wall Street, sparked by the strengthening US dollar against the euro after S&P cut Greece’s credit ratings to BBB+ from A-. The Shanghai bourse fell 2.05% while Nikkei lost 0.21% and Hang Seng fell 0.8%. The STI shed close to 30 points in early trading but a late afternoon rally, led by renewed interests in SingTel, City Developments and Neptune Orient Lines, limited losses in STI to 10.68 points. For the week, the STI barely changed, gaining 1.84 points, or 0.07% higher, to 2802.59.
Expect the local bourse to be relatively quiet and trade within a narrow range this week as most market participants have taken an early Christmas break.
=============
Mid Day December 21. Singapore stocks in tight-ranged trading.
Stocks in Singapore traded in a tight range today, mirroring trading patterns across the region in a holiday filled week (and two). Dealers said that with most fund managers and investors on holiday, there was little incentive for traders to take any fresh positions and this was evident in the light volume of 561million shares changing hands. At half time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 5.68 points to 2796.91. Market breadth was negative, with 150 gainers and 183 decliners.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29.5 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 66mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 34mil and penny issue New Wave, closing up half a cent to 1.5 cents on 22mil.
Jurong Cement was the top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 20 US cents to US$29.06 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 19 cents to $3.60. Top losers were JSH, down 30 US cents to US$17.10, Jardine C&C, down 24 cents to $25.78 and City Dev, down 24 cents to $11.36.
==============
Market Close December 21. STI closed lower on light volume
Stocks in Singapore traded in a tight range today, mirroring trading patterns across the region in a holiday filled week (and two). Dealers said that with most fund managers and investors on holiday, there was little incentive for traders to take any fresh positions and this was evident in the light volume of 1billion shares changing hands. At closing bell, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 15.78 points to 2786.81. Market breadth was negative, with 187 gainers and 259 decliners.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 77mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 51mil and penny issue EuNetworks, closing down half a cent to 1.5 cents on 33mil.
Jurong Cement was top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 74 US cents to US$29.60 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 25 cents to $3.66. Top losers were banking issue DBS, down 24 cents to $14.56, JSH, down 20 US cents to US$17.20, and contract manufacturer Venture, down 16 cents to $8.56.
================
Rotary down
Capital Mall Asia down
Not good :)
================================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 21 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10328.89 +20.63
Nasdaq Composite: 2211.69 +31.64
________________________________________
Wall Street ended higher on Friday, led by technology stocks, following upbeat earnings reports from Oracle and Research in Motion. Oracle reported higher-than-expected earnings of 39 cents per share, against expectations of 36 cents per share while Research in Motion posted a jump in profits to $1.10 per share, from 69 cents per share a year ago. However, not all companies reported improvement in operations; Palm and Nike both reported worse-than-expected earnings in the second fiscal quarter.
For the week, the major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.36% and S&P 500 fell 0.36% to end at 1102.47. Nasdaq composite, in contrast, gained 0.98%.
Wall Street is expected to be quiet in this three-and-a-half day trading week and the low trading volume which tends to amplify small moves, could cause market volatility. On the reporting front, the week ahead brings a number of economic readings including the final revision to third-quarter gross domestic product, data on personal income and spending as well as the weekly jobless claims. There are no major reports expected on Monday.
For the week, US light crude oil for Januray delivery gained US$3.49, or 5.0%, to US$73.36 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The regional markets were hit on Friday by overnight losses on Wall Street, sparked by the strengthening US dollar against the euro after S&P cut Greece’s credit ratings to BBB+ from A-. The Shanghai bourse fell 2.05% while Nikkei lost 0.21% and Hang Seng fell 0.8%. The STI shed close to 30 points in early trading but a late afternoon rally, led by renewed interests in SingTel, City Developments and Neptune Orient Lines, limited losses in STI to 10.68 points. For the week, the STI barely changed, gaining 1.84 points, or 0.07% higher, to 2802.59.
Expect the local bourse to be relatively quiet and trade within a narrow range this week as most market participants have taken an early Christmas break.
=============
Mid Day December 21. Singapore stocks in tight-ranged trading.
Stocks in Singapore traded in a tight range today, mirroring trading patterns across the region in a holiday filled week (and two). Dealers said that with most fund managers and investors on holiday, there was little incentive for traders to take any fresh positions and this was evident in the light volume of 561million shares changing hands. At half time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 5.68 points to 2796.91. Market breadth was negative, with 150 gainers and 183 decliners.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29.5 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 66mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 34mil and penny issue New Wave, closing up half a cent to 1.5 cents on 22mil.
Jurong Cement was the top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 20 US cents to US$29.06 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 19 cents to $3.60. Top losers were JSH, down 30 US cents to US$17.10, Jardine C&C, down 24 cents to $25.78 and City Dev, down 24 cents to $11.36.
==============
Market Close December 21. STI closed lower on light volume
Stocks in Singapore traded in a tight range today, mirroring trading patterns across the region in a holiday filled week (and two). Dealers said that with most fund managers and investors on holiday, there was little incentive for traders to take any fresh positions and this was evident in the light volume of 1billion shares changing hands. At closing bell, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 15.78 points to 2786.81. Market breadth was negative, with 187 gainers and 259 decliners.
Busy issues for the first trading day of this holiday shortened week included new IPO Hock Lian Seng, a civil engineering firm, closing at 29 cents from it offer of 25 cents on the back of 77mil done. Also active were Oceanus, up 2.5 cents to 37.5 cents on 51mil and penny issue EuNetworks, closing down half a cent to 1.5 cents on 33mil.
Jurong Cement was top gainer, up 82 cents to $2.10 after Holcim offered to buy the remaining shares it does not own at $2.10. Also up were JMH, up 74 US cents to US$29.60 and water treatment firm Hyflux, up 25 cents to $3.66. Top losers were banking issue DBS, down 24 cents to $14.56, JSH, down 20 US cents to US$17.20, and contract manufacturer Venture, down 16 cents to $8.56.
================
Labels:
Market Update
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Shorted GBPUSD on 18th Dec 2009
Very quick trade which I made 62 pips.
Open trade:1.6152 Close: 1.6090
Broke a low for the day. Broke a channel I drew :)
Open trade:1.6152 Close: 1.6090
Broke a low for the day. Broke a channel I drew :)
Labels:
FX Trading
Friday, December 18, 2009
18 Dec 09 : Bloodshed in Singapore Markets
By the way, I go into Citigroup last night at USD3.18. I hope I am going to be okay :)
========================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 18 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10308.26 -132.86
Nasdaq Composite: 2180.05 -26.86
________________________________________
The US market slumped on Thursday on global jitters when the greenback strengthened about 1.3% against the euro after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at near 0% on Wednesday, citing economic weakness will remain for some time. Adding to those jitters were reports that Greece received a credit downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, following a Fitch Rating’s downgrade on 8 Dec 2009.
Economic readings released on Thursday were mixed with jobless claims rising unexpectedly by 7,000 to 480,000 last week, worse-than-expectations of a decline to 465,000 new claims. On the other hand, the November index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9%, ahead of expectations of a 0.7% rise while the regional read on manufacturing surpassed expectations, rising to 20.4 in December, against expectations of a decline to 16.0, from 16.7 in November. On corporate results, the reports were mixed with Oracle beating profit expectations while FedEx issued cautious profit guidance for the coming third quarter which came below expectations.
The global jitters led the major indices ending lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.27% while S&P 500 fell 1.18% to end at 1096.08. Nasdaq composite declined 1.22%.
Wall Street is likely to experience increased volatility with the impact of quadruple options expirations on Friday.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$0.01 to settle at US$72.65 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a volatile trading session for the regional markets on Thursday as the strengthening US dollar sparked “carry trade” worries. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be undergoing a gentle sideways drift in subdued trading. However, activity picked up in the afternoon and most Asian markets were giving up their earlier session gains following an uptick in the US dollar that led to trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. The soft opening across the European bourses further led to the market weaknesses. The STI index closed almost unchanged, down 0.66 points to 2813.27, underpinned by the illiquid Jardine group of companies, mainly Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic and Jardine Cycle & Carriage; failing which, the STI would have suffered greater loss. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that gained, 1.28 fell. Turnover was 1.40 bil shares with a value of $1.34 bil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 2 cents at $1.17 on 127mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of it recent sideway range to add 8 cents at $2.62. There has been recent speculation that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, and Venture Corp, that rose between 6 and 34 cents. On the balance, shares of UOB, HL Asia, Parkway, Seroja, and IndoAgri eased between 5 and 20 cents.
Expect market to retrace today taking cues from the weak Wall Street close overnight following the strengthening of greenback against other major currencies and another credit downgrade in Greece. Further, investors are likely to unwind some positions ahead of the quadruple options expirations in US tonight.
=================
Stocks in Singapore decline in line with weakness on Wall Street
Stocks in Singapore declined in line with weakness on Wall Street overnight as well as regional bourses this morning. Stocks had slumped Thursday in the US as the US dollar rose amid a pullback in commodities. The euro was battered after S&P cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A-, fueling renewed jitters about exposure to risky assets. In Singapore, dealers lamented about the lack of market activity, though this comes as no surprise given the usual festive mood and investors-on-holiday rationale. At half time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 23.42 points to 2789.85. Market volume was low, with 644 million done, while market breadth was emphatically negative, with 104 gainers and 243 decliners.
Buys issues for the last trading day of the week included penny issue MDR, closing unchanged at 0.005 cents on 101mil, gaming stock Genting, closing down 1 cent at $1.16 on 35mil and palm oil play Golden Agri, down 1 cent on 49 cents on 24mil.
Top gainers were property developer City Dev, up 6 cents to $11.06, Delong, up 4 cents to 94 cents and Creative, up 3 cents to $6.05. Top losers were South Korean shipping firm STX Panocean, down 7 cents to $13.38, car distributor Jardine C&C, down 48 cents to $25.28 and APB, down 20 cents to $11.96.
=================
Market Close December 18. STI closed lower on low volume
Stocks in Singapore declined in line with weakness on Wall Street overnight as well as regional bourses this morning. Stocks had slumped Thursday in the US as the US dollar rose amid a pullback in commodities. The euro was battered after S&P cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A-, fueling renewed jitters about exposure to risky assets. In Singapore, dealers lamented about the lack of market activity, though this comes as no surprise given the usual festive mood and investors-on-holiday rationale. At full time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 10.68 points to 2802.59. Market volume was low, with 1.3billion done, while market breadth was negative, with 188 gainers and 232 decliners.
Buys issues for the last trading day of the week included penny issue MDR, closing unchanged at $0.005 on 142mil, Raffles Education, gaming stock Genting, closing unchanged at $1.17 on 50mil.
Top gainers were property developer City Dev, up 60 cents to $11.60, Jardine C&C, up 26 cents to $26.02 and Hyflux, up 15 cents to $3.41. Top losers were South Korean shipping firm STX Panocean, down 30 cents to $13.78, APB, down 26 cents to $11.90 and UOB, down 16 cents to $19.40.
========================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 18 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10308.26 -132.86
Nasdaq Composite: 2180.05 -26.86
________________________________________
The US market slumped on Thursday on global jitters when the greenback strengthened about 1.3% against the euro after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at near 0% on Wednesday, citing economic weakness will remain for some time. Adding to those jitters were reports that Greece received a credit downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, following a Fitch Rating’s downgrade on 8 Dec 2009.
Economic readings released on Thursday were mixed with jobless claims rising unexpectedly by 7,000 to 480,000 last week, worse-than-expectations of a decline to 465,000 new claims. On the other hand, the November index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9%, ahead of expectations of a 0.7% rise while the regional read on manufacturing surpassed expectations, rising to 20.4 in December, against expectations of a decline to 16.0, from 16.7 in November. On corporate results, the reports were mixed with Oracle beating profit expectations while FedEx issued cautious profit guidance for the coming third quarter which came below expectations.
The global jitters led the major indices ending lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.27% while S&P 500 fell 1.18% to end at 1096.08. Nasdaq composite declined 1.22%.
Wall Street is likely to experience increased volatility with the impact of quadruple options expirations on Friday.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$0.01 to settle at US$72.65 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a volatile trading session for the regional markets on Thursday as the strengthening US dollar sparked “carry trade” worries. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be undergoing a gentle sideways drift in subdued trading. However, activity picked up in the afternoon and most Asian markets were giving up their earlier session gains following an uptick in the US dollar that led to trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. The soft opening across the European bourses further led to the market weaknesses. The STI index closed almost unchanged, down 0.66 points to 2813.27, underpinned by the illiquid Jardine group of companies, mainly Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic and Jardine Cycle & Carriage; failing which, the STI would have suffered greater loss. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that gained, 1.28 fell. Turnover was 1.40 bil shares with a value of $1.34 bil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 2 cents at $1.17 on 127mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of it recent sideway range to add 8 cents at $2.62. There has been recent speculation that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, and Venture Corp, that rose between 6 and 34 cents. On the balance, shares of UOB, HL Asia, Parkway, Seroja, and IndoAgri eased between 5 and 20 cents.
Expect market to retrace today taking cues from the weak Wall Street close overnight following the strengthening of greenback against other major currencies and another credit downgrade in Greece. Further, investors are likely to unwind some positions ahead of the quadruple options expirations in US tonight.
=================
Stocks in Singapore decline in line with weakness on Wall Street
Stocks in Singapore declined in line with weakness on Wall Street overnight as well as regional bourses this morning. Stocks had slumped Thursday in the US as the US dollar rose amid a pullback in commodities. The euro was battered after S&P cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A-, fueling renewed jitters about exposure to risky assets. In Singapore, dealers lamented about the lack of market activity, though this comes as no surprise given the usual festive mood and investors-on-holiday rationale. At half time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 23.42 points to 2789.85. Market volume was low, with 644 million done, while market breadth was emphatically negative, with 104 gainers and 243 decliners.
Buys issues for the last trading day of the week included penny issue MDR, closing unchanged at 0.005 cents on 101mil, gaming stock Genting, closing down 1 cent at $1.16 on 35mil and palm oil play Golden Agri, down 1 cent on 49 cents on 24mil.
Top gainers were property developer City Dev, up 6 cents to $11.06, Delong, up 4 cents to 94 cents and Creative, up 3 cents to $6.05. Top losers were South Korean shipping firm STX Panocean, down 7 cents to $13.38, car distributor Jardine C&C, down 48 cents to $25.28 and APB, down 20 cents to $11.96.
=================
Market Close December 18. STI closed lower on low volume
Stocks in Singapore declined in line with weakness on Wall Street overnight as well as regional bourses this morning. Stocks had slumped Thursday in the US as the US dollar rose amid a pullback in commodities. The euro was battered after S&P cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A-, fueling renewed jitters about exposure to risky assets. In Singapore, dealers lamented about the lack of market activity, though this comes as no surprise given the usual festive mood and investors-on-holiday rationale. At full time, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 10.68 points to 2802.59. Market volume was low, with 1.3billion done, while market breadth was negative, with 188 gainers and 232 decliners.
Buys issues for the last trading day of the week included penny issue MDR, closing unchanged at $0.005 on 142mil, Raffles Education, gaming stock Genting, closing unchanged at $1.17 on 50mil.
Top gainers were property developer City Dev, up 60 cents to $11.60, Jardine C&C, up 26 cents to $26.02 and Hyflux, up 15 cents to $3.41. Top losers were South Korean shipping firm STX Panocean, down 30 cents to $13.78, APB, down 26 cents to $11.90 and UOB, down 16 cents to $19.40.
Labels:
Citigroup,
Market Update
Birth and Death in Non Farm Payrolls
Birth and Death in Non Farm Payrolls
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the most influential American economic statistic. In tracking the formation and destruction of employment in the United States the NFP provides a reliable view of the future course of the economy. If the United States cannot generate jobs to replace the more than seven million lost since the beginning of the recession then no predictions based on returning consumer spending will be accurate. If the consumer economy does not revive, there will be no real economic recovery.
The employment data of the NFP is collected from a survey of about 150,000 businesses and government agencies employers called the 'establishment survey'. The questions ask for a record of hiring and firings. However, not every solicited company answers the survey. Some firms have folded and some never bother to reply. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the change in employment at the firms that do not respond; they also predict the number of firms that have gone out of business and the number of new firms created. Their estimates are based on statistical models that draw on historical data.
Statisticians normally deal with the problem of non-respondents, at least for simple questions, by assuming their answers to be reflective of the respondents. If 60% of respondents preferred one election candidate, the surveyors posit that same percentage among those who did not reply.
The assumption that non answering firms will have hired and fired in similar percentages to the responding companies is similar to the BLS in the Non Farm survey. "The first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation...to offset the missing employment gains from business births" *. "The second component ... (is) designed to estimate the residual employment not accounted for by the imputation", that is to compare the estimates to actual numbers from state unemployment insurance statistics. These actual job numbers are available at a several months delay, so the initial NFP release contains an educated guess of jobs lost and created by failed and new found firms. In the past the estimate had compared well to the actual numbers. "Earlier research indicated...that the net contribution (of jobs) is relatively stable". When the unemployment insurance numbers were compared to the estimates from the BLS model, as is done once a year and included in the January statistics, no notable discrepancies were discovered. This is the benchmark or 'birth/death adjustment'.
However, something happened to the accuracy of the model in 2008. The estimates of jobs created proved to be wildly over optimistic. Last year these adjustments subtracted several hundred thousand jobs. And in January this year 356,000 jobs were estimated to have been lost to failed companies and that is what produced the record loss of 741,000 jobs in that month.
The culprits for this underestimate of job losses are quite likely the recession and the financial crisis. Economic studies have noted that financial and banking downturns produce much slower and weaker recoveries than business cycle recessions. The credit crunch has been particularly hard on small business. It is likely that new company formation and hiring is much weaker in this recession than in prior recessions. The BLS job creation model was not accurate in 2008 and may have similar problems in 2009.
The BLS will make this birth/death revision to the jobs statistics in February with the January NFP report. According to the BLS 824,000 jobs are likely to be subtracted from those reported to have been created over the prior twelve months **. That is an average loss of 69,000 jobs per month that were not created, jobs that never existed.
But to the media, the stock market, job seekers and consumers those jobs are real and that pace of employment improvement is incorporated into their economic view. The actual performance numbers of the economy, consumer expenditures, home purchases, debt retirement and other measures are founded in part on estimates of the economic future. Those estimates may be partly based on erroneous job creation and will have to be revised when the jobs numbers are altered.
The picture of the economy portrayed by the jobs report over the past year has been one of gradual but steady improvement. From a loss of 741,000 jobs in January 2009, the numbers have gotten a little better each month, -303,000 in May and only -11,000 in November. It appears that the worst of the job losses are over and that the economy may even have added jobs in November. This is quite unlikely to be true. Or at least the pace of improvement has been far slower than given so far in the statistics.
United States total household and non-profit wealth rose by $2.67 trillion in the third quarter, primarily because of the tremendous gain in the equity averages since March, and a small rise in home values. As noted earlier, the equity averages are looking at the jobs improvement as one indicator, perhaps the most important one on which to posit a recovery in consumer spending. The feedback loop for equities runs through employment. If job creation has been considerably worse than portrayed then some of the underpinning of the equity markets, and the improvement in household wealth is taken away. If folks are once again feeling poorer, assuming the equities fall or stagnate, then quite possibly the projected consumer spending increases will be harmed or delayed.
In comparison, the ADP report reached its low in March 2009 with a loss of 736,000 jobs. In November it recorded a loss of 169,000, a 77% improvement. The NFP was at its low in January at -741,000. The -11,000 in November reading represents a 98.5% improvement over the January. At the same 77% improvement as the ADP the November NFP would have been about -170,000.
Since the last adjustment was applied to January of this year the economy has lost 3,337,000 jobs according to the current Non Farm Payrolls statistics. If we assume that the December and January numbers are flat or even slightly positive, as would seem possible given the trend, then the -824,000 preliminary estimate of the birth/death adjustment would mean that job losses during the year were close to 20% higher than estimated.
This is not just a statistical adjustment; it is a number large enough to affect employers and their hiring plans, equity, commodity and bond markets, consumers and job seekers alike. It is not a comfortable possibility.
* http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
** http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022009.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the most influential American economic statistic. In tracking the formation and destruction of employment in the United States the NFP provides a reliable view of the future course of the economy. If the United States cannot generate jobs to replace the more than seven million lost since the beginning of the recession then no predictions based on returning consumer spending will be accurate. If the consumer economy does not revive, there will be no real economic recovery.
The employment data of the NFP is collected from a survey of about 150,000 businesses and government agencies employers called the 'establishment survey'. The questions ask for a record of hiring and firings. However, not every solicited company answers the survey. Some firms have folded and some never bother to reply. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the change in employment at the firms that do not respond; they also predict the number of firms that have gone out of business and the number of new firms created. Their estimates are based on statistical models that draw on historical data.
Statisticians normally deal with the problem of non-respondents, at least for simple questions, by assuming their answers to be reflective of the respondents. If 60% of respondents preferred one election candidate, the surveyors posit that same percentage among those who did not reply.
The assumption that non answering firms will have hired and fired in similar percentages to the responding companies is similar to the BLS in the Non Farm survey. "The first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation...to offset the missing employment gains from business births" *. "The second component ... (is) designed to estimate the residual employment not accounted for by the imputation", that is to compare the estimates to actual numbers from state unemployment insurance statistics. These actual job numbers are available at a several months delay, so the initial NFP release contains an educated guess of jobs lost and created by failed and new found firms. In the past the estimate had compared well to the actual numbers. "Earlier research indicated...that the net contribution (of jobs) is relatively stable". When the unemployment insurance numbers were compared to the estimates from the BLS model, as is done once a year and included in the January statistics, no notable discrepancies were discovered. This is the benchmark or 'birth/death adjustment'.
However, something happened to the accuracy of the model in 2008. The estimates of jobs created proved to be wildly over optimistic. Last year these adjustments subtracted several hundred thousand jobs. And in January this year 356,000 jobs were estimated to have been lost to failed companies and that is what produced the record loss of 741,000 jobs in that month.
The culprits for this underestimate of job losses are quite likely the recession and the financial crisis. Economic studies have noted that financial and banking downturns produce much slower and weaker recoveries than business cycle recessions. The credit crunch has been particularly hard on small business. It is likely that new company formation and hiring is much weaker in this recession than in prior recessions. The BLS job creation model was not accurate in 2008 and may have similar problems in 2009.
The BLS will make this birth/death revision to the jobs statistics in February with the January NFP report. According to the BLS 824,000 jobs are likely to be subtracted from those reported to have been created over the prior twelve months **. That is an average loss of 69,000 jobs per month that were not created, jobs that never existed.
But to the media, the stock market, job seekers and consumers those jobs are real and that pace of employment improvement is incorporated into their economic view. The actual performance numbers of the economy, consumer expenditures, home purchases, debt retirement and other measures are founded in part on estimates of the economic future. Those estimates may be partly based on erroneous job creation and will have to be revised when the jobs numbers are altered.
The picture of the economy portrayed by the jobs report over the past year has been one of gradual but steady improvement. From a loss of 741,000 jobs in January 2009, the numbers have gotten a little better each month, -303,000 in May and only -11,000 in November. It appears that the worst of the job losses are over and that the economy may even have added jobs in November. This is quite unlikely to be true. Or at least the pace of improvement has been far slower than given so far in the statistics.
United States total household and non-profit wealth rose by $2.67 trillion in the third quarter, primarily because of the tremendous gain in the equity averages since March, and a small rise in home values. As noted earlier, the equity averages are looking at the jobs improvement as one indicator, perhaps the most important one on which to posit a recovery in consumer spending. The feedback loop for equities runs through employment. If job creation has been considerably worse than portrayed then some of the underpinning of the equity markets, and the improvement in household wealth is taken away. If folks are once again feeling poorer, assuming the equities fall or stagnate, then quite possibly the projected consumer spending increases will be harmed or delayed.
In comparison, the ADP report reached its low in March 2009 with a loss of 736,000 jobs. In November it recorded a loss of 169,000, a 77% improvement. The NFP was at its low in January at -741,000. The -11,000 in November reading represents a 98.5% improvement over the January. At the same 77% improvement as the ADP the November NFP would have been about -170,000.
Since the last adjustment was applied to January of this year the economy has lost 3,337,000 jobs according to the current Non Farm Payrolls statistics. If we assume that the December and January numbers are flat or even slightly positive, as would seem possible given the trend, then the -824,000 preliminary estimate of the birth/death adjustment would mean that job losses during the year were close to 20% higher than estimated.
This is not just a statistical adjustment; it is a number large enough to affect employers and their hiring plans, equity, commodity and bond markets, consumers and job seekers alike. It is not a comfortable possibility.
* http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
** http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022009.htm
Labels:
FX Trading
Thursday, December 17, 2009
17 Dec 09 : Fed Leave Interest Rate Unchanged
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 17 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10441.12 -10.88
Nasdaq Composite: 2206.91 +5.86
________________________________________
Following gains in early trading, the US market ended mixed after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the key federal funds rate unchanged, at near 0% and is likely to keep interest rates at the current low levels for the foreseeable future due to continued weakness in the economy, despite signs of improvement, and low risk of inflation. The Fed statement cited a number of areas of the economy are getting stronger, including the housing market and consumer spending but the labour market and business investment continue to lose ground, although at a slower pace.
The Fed also cited that the government stimulus program would remain in place, although the Fed confirmed that the situation has improved enough in some of the markets to allow the central bank to let some of the program to end as planning during the course of 2010. However, no timetable was given on when the Fed will start to unwind its large position in mortgage securities and long-term Treasury, saying that it “will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in the financial markets.”
The market showed little reaction to mildly upbeat economic readings on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and housing market released on Wednesday. November CPI rose 0.4%, matching expectations, after climbing 0.2% in October. Housing starts increased to 574,000 unit annual rate in November, again matching expectations, from a revised 527,000 unit annual rate in October while building permits rose to 584,000 unit annual rate in November, better-than-expectations of 570,000 unit annual rate.
The major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.10% while S&P 500 inched up 0.11% to end at 1109.18. Nasdaq composite rose 0.27%.
Thursday will bring readings of the November index of leading economic indicators, regional read of manufacturing and weekly jobless claims report. On the corporate front, the results of FedEx and Oracle are also due on the same day.
US light crude oil for January delivery rose US$1.97 to settle at US$72.66 a barrel following the weekly crude oil inventory reading that stockpiles decreased by 3.7 mil barrels last week.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Singapore market was trading at a tight band for most of Wednesday as activity was confined to a few blue chips and a handful of low-priced penny stocks. But expectations that the Wall Street would rise after the US Fed meeting led to a last-minute push on the STI, which rose 15.23 points to 2813.93, underpinned by interests in SIA, banks and Genting. For every stock that gained, 1.18 fell. Turnover was 1.32 bil shares with a value of $1.29 bil traded.
SIA rose 48 cents to $14.24 due to analysts’ “BUY” reports and SIA’s November statistics, which showed gradual improvement. There were also interests in MDR at half a cent, Ban Joo’s warrants at 6.5 cents and Teledata at 7.5 cents.
Expect the local bourse to inch higher today following the US central bankers voiced growing optimism on the US economy overnight. However, the upside is likely to be limited given that volumes have been falling.
The IPO of Hock Lian Seng will close at noon today. Read more about it in our IPO report on the company and find out our analyst’s views and recommendation on this new issue.
============
NRA Mid Day December 17. Broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode.
It was a volatile session for Asian markets today with frequent swings amid a strengthening US dollar. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode. As the mid-day approached, most Asian markets were giving up their short lived gains on trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. The STI index retreated from its 2823 high to end 0.76 points up at 2814.69 points. Market breadth was flat at best in quiet trading. Turnover was 810mil shares with a value of $719mil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 3 cents at $1.18 on 80mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of it recent sideway range to add 5 cents at $2.59. There has been recent speculations that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, Venture Corp, UOL, HPL and Wilmar that rose between 2 and 42 cents.
On the balance, shares of UOB, Seroja, Olam, ST Engineering, F&N and Indoagric eased between 1 and 14 cents.
==========
Market Close December 17. STI ended flat at closing bell.
It was a volatile session for Asian markets today with frequent swings amid a strengthening US dollar. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode. As the mid-day approached, most Asian markets were giving up their short lived gains on trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. At closing bell, the STI index closed almost unchanged, down 0.66 points 2813.27 points. Market breadth was negative, with 194 gainers and 248 decliners while turnover was 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 2 cents at $1.17 on 127mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of its recent sideway range to add 8 cents at $2.62. There has been recent speculations that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, and Venture Corp, that rose between 6 and 34 cents. On the balance, shares of UOB, HL Asia, Parkway, Seroja, and Indoagric eased between 5 and 20 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10441.12 -10.88
Nasdaq Composite: 2206.91 +5.86
________________________________________
Following gains in early trading, the US market ended mixed after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the key federal funds rate unchanged, at near 0% and is likely to keep interest rates at the current low levels for the foreseeable future due to continued weakness in the economy, despite signs of improvement, and low risk of inflation. The Fed statement cited a number of areas of the economy are getting stronger, including the housing market and consumer spending but the labour market and business investment continue to lose ground, although at a slower pace.
The Fed also cited that the government stimulus program would remain in place, although the Fed confirmed that the situation has improved enough in some of the markets to allow the central bank to let some of the program to end as planning during the course of 2010. However, no timetable was given on when the Fed will start to unwind its large position in mortgage securities and long-term Treasury, saying that it “will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in the financial markets.”
The market showed little reaction to mildly upbeat economic readings on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and housing market released on Wednesday. November CPI rose 0.4%, matching expectations, after climbing 0.2% in October. Housing starts increased to 574,000 unit annual rate in November, again matching expectations, from a revised 527,000 unit annual rate in October while building permits rose to 584,000 unit annual rate in November, better-than-expectations of 570,000 unit annual rate.
The major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.10% while S&P 500 inched up 0.11% to end at 1109.18. Nasdaq composite rose 0.27%.
Thursday will bring readings of the November index of leading economic indicators, regional read of manufacturing and weekly jobless claims report. On the corporate front, the results of FedEx and Oracle are also due on the same day.
US light crude oil for January delivery rose US$1.97 to settle at US$72.66 a barrel following the weekly crude oil inventory reading that stockpiles decreased by 3.7 mil barrels last week.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Singapore market was trading at a tight band for most of Wednesday as activity was confined to a few blue chips and a handful of low-priced penny stocks. But expectations that the Wall Street would rise after the US Fed meeting led to a last-minute push on the STI, which rose 15.23 points to 2813.93, underpinned by interests in SIA, banks and Genting. For every stock that gained, 1.18 fell. Turnover was 1.32 bil shares with a value of $1.29 bil traded.
SIA rose 48 cents to $14.24 due to analysts’ “BUY” reports and SIA’s November statistics, which showed gradual improvement. There were also interests in MDR at half a cent, Ban Joo’s warrants at 6.5 cents and Teledata at 7.5 cents.
Expect the local bourse to inch higher today following the US central bankers voiced growing optimism on the US economy overnight. However, the upside is likely to be limited given that volumes have been falling.
The IPO of Hock Lian Seng will close at noon today. Read more about it in our IPO report on the company and find out our analyst’s views and recommendation on this new issue.
============
NRA Mid Day December 17. Broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode.
It was a volatile session for Asian markets today with frequent swings amid a strengthening US dollar. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode. As the mid-day approached, most Asian markets were giving up their short lived gains on trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. The STI index retreated from its 2823 high to end 0.76 points up at 2814.69 points. Market breadth was flat at best in quiet trading. Turnover was 810mil shares with a value of $719mil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 3 cents at $1.18 on 80mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of it recent sideway range to add 5 cents at $2.59. There has been recent speculations that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, Venture Corp, UOL, HPL and Wilmar that rose between 2 and 42 cents.
On the balance, shares of UOB, Seroja, Olam, ST Engineering, F&N and Indoagric eased between 1 and 14 cents.
==========
Market Close December 17. STI ended flat at closing bell.
It was a volatile session for Asian markets today with frequent swings amid a strengthening US dollar. Besides situational issues that gained, the broader markets appeared to be in a drifting mode. As the mid-day approached, most Asian markets were giving up their short lived gains on trader talks of dollar unwinding sales. At closing bell, the STI index closed almost unchanged, down 0.66 points 2813.27 points. Market breadth was negative, with 194 gainers and 248 decliners while turnover was 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Shares of Genting extended gains, adding 2 cents at $1.17 on 127mil shares on talks that its earlier opening would mean a gain of market share for the integrated resort. On another note, SATs Services broke out of its recent sideway range to add 8 cents at $2.62. There has been recent speculations that the company may soon announce the contract win for catering services to the integrated resorts. Biosensors rose 1 cent at 78.5 cents on talks that it may announce a contract win. Straits Asia advanced 5 cents at $2.39 on speculations that substantial stakeholder PTT may do an asset injection.
Other issues that rose included City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Jardine C&C, and Venture Corp, that rose between 6 and 34 cents. On the balance, shares of UOB, HL Asia, Parkway, Seroja, and Indoagric eased between 5 and 20 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
16 Dec 09 : Directionless Market Again
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 16 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10452.00 -49.05
Nasdaq Composite: 2201.05 -11.05
________________________________________
Following a four-day winning streak, the US market lost grounds, led by financials, after mixed economic reports on inflation and manufacturing raised speculations that the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates earlier than expected. Wholesale prices rose more than expected, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 1.8% in November, against expectations of a 0.8% increase, after rising 0.3% in October. Excluding food and energy costs, core PPI rose 0.5%, again higher than expectations of a 0.2% increase, from a 0.3% rise in October. The Empire Manufacturing index, a measure of manufacturing in the New York area, slumped to 2.55 in December, below forecast of a rise to 24, from 23.51 in November. On a separate and more upbeat report on manufacturing activities, the November capacity utilization rose higher-than-expected to 71.3%, against expectations of 71.1%, from 70.6% in October and the November industrial production increased 0.8%, better-than-expectations of a 0.5% climb, after holding steady in October. A stronger greenback, due to concerns about debt-ridden Greece which led investors to pull money out of Euro into the US dollar, further pressured the weak market.
All the major indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.47% while S&P 500 fell 0.55% to end at 1107.93. Nasdaq composite declined 0.50%.
The two-day Federal Reserve meeting will conclude on Wednesday and investors are keenly awaiting the policy statement which could provide hints on the timing of the next interest rate hike. Also, due on the same day are economic readings on consumer price index, housing starts, building permits and weekly crude oil inventories.
US light crude oil for January delivery rose US$1.18 to settle at US$70.69 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Singapore market struggled for direction on a quiet trading Tuesday. The general mood was lethargic as some institutional investors have already closed their books after a period of window dressing. Other investors preferred to stay on the side-lines, awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. After briefly hitting intra-day high of 2812.19, the STI closed 0.84 points, or 0.03%, lower at 2798.70. For every stock that gained, 1.22 fell. Trading volume was anaemic with turnover of 1.23 bil shares with a value of $1.01 bil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Egypt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment until early 2012. Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 1 cent at 95 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose include Jardine C&C, UOB, Singapore Land, Straits Asia that rose between 11 and 26 cents.
Expect market to be range-bound today and sentiment to be cautious as investors continue to stay on the side-lines awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and timing indications of the next interest rate hike.
=========
Mid Day December 16. Market no clear direction.
It was a mixed day for Asia with Japan leading the advance thanks to a weaker Yen. The STI index came back from its earlier weakness to end 5.24 points up at 2803.94 points. Traders expect no clear direction but anticipate further upward bias towards the year end on hopes of window dressing. Market breadth was flat at best with situational issues towing the actives list. Turnover was 702.1 mil shares with a value of S$648.1mil traded.
A day after the news of its casino concession win in Egypt, Genting shares gained 4 cents at $1.13 on 90.7mil shares. Sources said this could be due to rumours that the Sentosa Integrated Resort would be opening its doors on the 18th of January 2010. The anticipated earlier opening was also a reason for a buy report issued yesterday by a foreign broker who has a $1.50 target. Straits Asia rose 6 cents $2.36 after a favourable mention by a foreign broker yesterday. A dealer noted the recent move tied in with the investment budget announced by its key stakeholder PTT. `This sparked rumours that there may be an asset injection' a trader said. Indoagric shares added 11 cents at $2.13 gaining traction from a foreign broker's buy recommendation yesterday.
Shares of Chemoil tumbled 6 cents at 37.5 cents but still traded above the 35.52 cents takeover price offered by Glencore. Others like Noble Group, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, UOB, Singapore Land, Kim Eng, CMZ and OKP eased between 1.5 and 70 cents.
=======
Market Close December 16. Japan leads the advance in Asia markets.
It was a mixed day for Asia with Japan leading the advance thanks to a weaker Yen. The STI index came back from its earlier weakness to end 15.23 points up at 2813.93 points. Traders expect no clear direction but anticipate further upward bias towards the year end on hopes of window dressing. Market breadth was flat at best with situational issues towing the actives list. Turnover was 1.32bil shares with a value of S$1.29bil traded.
A day after the news of its casino concession win in Egypt, Genting shares gained 6 cents at $1.15 on 148.4mil shares. Sources said this could be due to rumours that the Sentosa Integrated Resort would be opening its doors on the 18th of January 2010. The anticipated earlier opening was also a reason for a buy report issued yesterday by a foreign broker who has a $1.50 target. Straits Asia rose 4 cents $2.34 after a favourable mention by a foreign broker yesterday. A dealer noted the recent move tied in with the investment budget announced by its key stakeholder PTT. `This sparked rumours that there may be an asset injection' a trader said. Indoagric shares added 13 cents at $2.15 gaining traction from a foreign broker's buy recommendation yesterday.
Shares of Chemoil tumbled 5 cents at 38.5 cents but still traded above the 35.52 cents takeover price offered by Glencore. Stocks of Singtel, OCBC, SIA, and DBS rose between 4 and 48cts. Others like Jardine Matheson, Noble Group, Jardine Strategic, HongKongLand and CityDev eased between 1 and 46 cts.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10452.00 -49.05
Nasdaq Composite: 2201.05 -11.05
________________________________________
Following a four-day winning streak, the US market lost grounds, led by financials, after mixed economic reports on inflation and manufacturing raised speculations that the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates earlier than expected. Wholesale prices rose more than expected, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 1.8% in November, against expectations of a 0.8% increase, after rising 0.3% in October. Excluding food and energy costs, core PPI rose 0.5%, again higher than expectations of a 0.2% increase, from a 0.3% rise in October. The Empire Manufacturing index, a measure of manufacturing in the New York area, slumped to 2.55 in December, below forecast of a rise to 24, from 23.51 in November. On a separate and more upbeat report on manufacturing activities, the November capacity utilization rose higher-than-expected to 71.3%, against expectations of 71.1%, from 70.6% in October and the November industrial production increased 0.8%, better-than-expectations of a 0.5% climb, after holding steady in October. A stronger greenback, due to concerns about debt-ridden Greece which led investors to pull money out of Euro into the US dollar, further pressured the weak market.
All the major indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.47% while S&P 500 fell 0.55% to end at 1107.93. Nasdaq composite declined 0.50%.
The two-day Federal Reserve meeting will conclude on Wednesday and investors are keenly awaiting the policy statement which could provide hints on the timing of the next interest rate hike. Also, due on the same day are economic readings on consumer price index, housing starts, building permits and weekly crude oil inventories.
US light crude oil for January delivery rose US$1.18 to settle at US$70.69 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Singapore market struggled for direction on a quiet trading Tuesday. The general mood was lethargic as some institutional investors have already closed their books after a period of window dressing. Other investors preferred to stay on the side-lines, awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. After briefly hitting intra-day high of 2812.19, the STI closed 0.84 points, or 0.03%, lower at 2798.70. For every stock that gained, 1.22 fell. Trading volume was anaemic with turnover of 1.23 bil shares with a value of $1.01 bil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Egypt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment until early 2012. Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 1 cent at 95 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose include Jardine C&C, UOB, Singapore Land, Straits Asia that rose between 11 and 26 cents.
Expect market to be range-bound today and sentiment to be cautious as investors continue to stay on the side-lines awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and timing indications of the next interest rate hike.
=========
Mid Day December 16. Market no clear direction.
It was a mixed day for Asia with Japan leading the advance thanks to a weaker Yen. The STI index came back from its earlier weakness to end 5.24 points up at 2803.94 points. Traders expect no clear direction but anticipate further upward bias towards the year end on hopes of window dressing. Market breadth was flat at best with situational issues towing the actives list. Turnover was 702.1 mil shares with a value of S$648.1mil traded.
A day after the news of its casino concession win in Egypt, Genting shares gained 4 cents at $1.13 on 90.7mil shares. Sources said this could be due to rumours that the Sentosa Integrated Resort would be opening its doors on the 18th of January 2010. The anticipated earlier opening was also a reason for a buy report issued yesterday by a foreign broker who has a $1.50 target. Straits Asia rose 6 cents $2.36 after a favourable mention by a foreign broker yesterday. A dealer noted the recent move tied in with the investment budget announced by its key stakeholder PTT. `This sparked rumours that there may be an asset injection' a trader said. Indoagric shares added 11 cents at $2.13 gaining traction from a foreign broker's buy recommendation yesterday.
Shares of Chemoil tumbled 6 cents at 37.5 cents but still traded above the 35.52 cents takeover price offered by Glencore. Others like Noble Group, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, UOB, Singapore Land, Kim Eng, CMZ and OKP eased between 1.5 and 70 cents.
=======
Market Close December 16. Japan leads the advance in Asia markets.
It was a mixed day for Asia with Japan leading the advance thanks to a weaker Yen. The STI index came back from its earlier weakness to end 15.23 points up at 2813.93 points. Traders expect no clear direction but anticipate further upward bias towards the year end on hopes of window dressing. Market breadth was flat at best with situational issues towing the actives list. Turnover was 1.32bil shares with a value of S$1.29bil traded.
A day after the news of its casino concession win in Egypt, Genting shares gained 6 cents at $1.15 on 148.4mil shares. Sources said this could be due to rumours that the Sentosa Integrated Resort would be opening its doors on the 18th of January 2010. The anticipated earlier opening was also a reason for a buy report issued yesterday by a foreign broker who has a $1.50 target. Straits Asia rose 4 cents $2.34 after a favourable mention by a foreign broker yesterday. A dealer noted the recent move tied in with the investment budget announced by its key stakeholder PTT. `This sparked rumours that there may be an asset injection' a trader said. Indoagric shares added 13 cents at $2.15 gaining traction from a foreign broker's buy recommendation yesterday.
Shares of Chemoil tumbled 5 cents at 38.5 cents but still traded above the 35.52 cents takeover price offered by Glencore. Stocks of Singtel, OCBC, SIA, and DBS rose between 4 and 48cts. Others like Jardine Matheson, Noble Group, Jardine Strategic, HongKongLand and CityDev eased between 1 and 46 cts.
Labels:
Market Update
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
15 Dec 09 : AUD/USD
Made 16 pips trading AUD/USD when it broke a key support at 0.9120. However placed my TP (take profit) wrongly and so ended up with 16 pips instead of more than 50 pips :)
Must concentrate lah ! :)
================
Mid Day December 15. Market entered its quiet holiday season.
US markets closed at 14 month highs celebrating the relief news of the bailout of the Dubai debt problem. Yesterday's debt maturity of US$3.5 Nakheel property bonds was just a litmus test of the overall debt restructuring that Dubai World was going through. `The US$10bil bailout from the Abu Dhabi was a welcome relief, though the market has entered its typical quiet holiday season' a dealer said. The STI index rose 6.94 points at 2806.48 points. Market breadth was flat at best on a quiet day. Turnover was 599mil shares with a value of $546mil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Eygpt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment til early 2012.
Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 2 cents at 96 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose included UOB, Jardine Matheson, Singapore Land, Straits Asia, F&N, SIA, Keppel Corp, Ezion, Keppel Land and DBS that rose between 2 and 20 cents.
On the balance, shares of OCBC bank, Semb Marine, Creative Technology, SC Global, Yanlord and CapitaLand eased between 2 and 9 cents.
Market Close December 15. STI closed flat on a quiet day.
US markets closed at 14 month highs celebrating the relief news of the bailout of the Dubai debt problem. Yesterday's debt maturity of US$3.5bil Nakheel property bonds was just a litmus test of the overall debt restructuring that Dubai World was going through. `The US$10bil bailout from the Abu Dhabi was a welcome relief, though the market has entered its typical quiet holiday season' a dealer said. The STI index fell 0.84 points at 2,798.70 points. Market breadth was flat at best on a quiet day. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1bil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Eygpt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment til early 2012. Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 1 cents at 95 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose included Jardine C&C, UOB, Singapore Land, Straits Asia that rose between 11 and 26 cents.
On the balance, shares of OCBC, Creative, HK Land, Capitaland,and Semb Marine, eased between 5 and 10 cents.
Must concentrate lah ! :)
================
Mid Day December 15. Market entered its quiet holiday season.
US markets closed at 14 month highs celebrating the relief news of the bailout of the Dubai debt problem. Yesterday's debt maturity of US$3.5 Nakheel property bonds was just a litmus test of the overall debt restructuring that Dubai World was going through. `The US$10bil bailout from the Abu Dhabi was a welcome relief, though the market has entered its typical quiet holiday season' a dealer said. The STI index rose 6.94 points at 2806.48 points. Market breadth was flat at best on a quiet day. Turnover was 599mil shares with a value of $546mil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Eygpt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment til early 2012.
Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 2 cents at 96 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose included UOB, Jardine Matheson, Singapore Land, Straits Asia, F&N, SIA, Keppel Corp, Ezion, Keppel Land and DBS that rose between 2 and 20 cents.
On the balance, shares of OCBC bank, Semb Marine, Creative Technology, SC Global, Yanlord and CapitaLand eased between 2 and 9 cents.
Market Close December 15. STI closed flat on a quiet day.
US markets closed at 14 month highs celebrating the relief news of the bailout of the Dubai debt problem. Yesterday's debt maturity of US$3.5bil Nakheel property bonds was just a litmus test of the overall debt restructuring that Dubai World was going through. `The US$10bil bailout from the Abu Dhabi was a welcome relief, though the market has entered its typical quiet holiday season' a dealer said. The STI index fell 0.84 points at 2,798.70 points. Market breadth was flat at best on a quiet day. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1bil traded.
Genting shares added 1 cent at $1.09 on 12mil shares after its unit Genting Casinos Limited won the casino concession for the Nile Hotel in Eygpt. Some analysts echoed that there may not be immediate benefit as the hotel would undergo extensive renovation and refurbishment til early 2012. Glencore's purchase of the 50.81 per cent vendor block of Chemoil Energy shares has triggered a general offer. The takeover price of US$0.3552 will be made in cash. Chemoil shares remains suspended today and was last traded at US$0.435 cents. Shares of Swiber rose 1 cents at 95 cents after the company said it won a US$81.4mil contract. Other stocks that rose included Jardine C&C, UOB, Singapore Land, Straits Asia that rose between 11 and 26 cents.
On the balance, shares of OCBC, Creative, HK Land, Capitaland,and Semb Marine, eased between 5 and 10 cents.
Labels:
FX Trading
14 Dec 09 : Dubai Mess Cleared Up ?
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 14 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10471.50 +65.67
Nasdaq Composite: 2190.31 -0.55
________________________________________
The large US blue chips shares propelled the Dow to a new 2009 high on Friday following better-than-expected readings on retail sales and consumer sentiment. Retail sales climbed 1.3% in November, better-than-expectations of a rise of 0.7%, from an increase of 1.1% in October and excluding auto sales, sales rose 1.2%, again ahead of expectations of a rise of 0.4%, after showing no change in October. Consumer sentiment index rose to 73.4, better-than-expectations of a rise to 68.8, from 67.4 the previous month. Notwithstanding the upbeat economic readings, market gains were limited by weakness in technology and the strength of the US dollar.
For the week, the major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.80% while S&P 500 remained largely unchanged, advancing 0.04% to end at 1106.41. Nasdaq composite lost 0.18%.
The week ahead brings reports on housing, the labour market as well as consumer and wholesale inflation. The highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting will be held on Tuesday, concluding Wednesday and the market is expecting the federal funds rate to be held steady at historic lows near zero. Also, closely-watched is a statement about the economy, where central bankers will provide hints on when interest rates may be raised.
For the week, US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$5.60, or 7.42%, to US$69.87 a barrel as a result of the strengthening greenback.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The major regional markets enjoyed a boost on Friday after China reported better-than-expected industrial production, which jumped 19.1% in November. Mirroring the regional bourses, the STI advanced 0.68% on Friday, ending above the 2800 level for the first time this year and for the week, the index was 9.74 points, or 0.35%, higher to 2800.75.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement on Friday, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion increased 1 cent at 76.5 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects. Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, DBS, and OCBC that rose between 13 and 48 cents.
Expect market to consolidate today and sentiment to be cautious in the absence of fresh leads and as investors await the Federal Reserve meeting, where central bankers will provide an economic outlook and timing indications of an interest rate hike through a statement on Wednesday.
Mid day December 14. Market cautious ahead of FOMC meeting
Singapore shares eased in ear ly trading despite the positive Wall Street finish Friday. Dealers said market participants were cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting Tuesday and general weariness over the Dubai debt debacle. US$3.5bil worth of Nakheel property bonds were maturing today and investors would be keen to know if this gets paid. The STI index fell 1.06 points at 2799.69 points, reversing from its deeper earlier loss. For every stock that rose, 1.2 fell. Turnover was 653mil shares with a value of $525mil traded.
Over lunch, index futures recovered as the newswire reported that Abu Dhabi would provide funds for Dubai World to meet its obligations. With the fresh funding, it would appear that a default would be averted and this was drawing some buyers into the market. Stocks that rose were STX Panocean, DBS, Hwa Hong, Q&M Dental, Swiber, Keppel land, Yanlord, OUE, EDMI and Wing Tai that rose between 2 and 32 cents.
Suntec Reits slipped 2 cents at $1.26 on fears of a shares overhang foll o wing its recent placement announcement. Others like Jardine C&C, UOL, UOB, Wheelock and Singapore Land eased between 2 and 56 cents.
======
NRA Market Close December 14.
STI reversed from deeper loss to close slightly down.
Singapore shares eased in early trading despite the positive Wall Street finish Friday. Dealers said market participants were cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting Tuesday and general weariness over the Dubai debt debacle. US$3.5bil worth of Nakheel property bonds were maturing today and investors would be keen to know if this gets paid. The STI index closed slightly down 1.21 points at 2799.54 points, reversing from its deeper earlier loss. Market breadth was almost even, with 227 gainers and 212 decliners. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1bil traded.
Over lunch, index futures recovered as the newswire reported that Abu Dhabi would provide funds for Dubai World to meet its obligations. With the fresh funding, it would appear that a default would be averted and this was
drawing some buyers into the market. However, this momentum stalled as the buying failed to gather momentum. Stocks that rose were STX Panocean,, Hwa Hong, Furama, City Dev, Capitaland, Keppel Land, and Guocoland, that rose between 5 and 18 cents.
Top losers for the day included Jardine C&C, UOL, UOB, Straits Trading, Haw Par and Sp Land, that eased between 6 and 58 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10471.50 +65.67
Nasdaq Composite: 2190.31 -0.55
________________________________________
The large US blue chips shares propelled the Dow to a new 2009 high on Friday following better-than-expected readings on retail sales and consumer sentiment. Retail sales climbed 1.3% in November, better-than-expectations of a rise of 0.7%, from an increase of 1.1% in October and excluding auto sales, sales rose 1.2%, again ahead of expectations of a rise of 0.4%, after showing no change in October. Consumer sentiment index rose to 73.4, better-than-expectations of a rise to 68.8, from 67.4 the previous month. Notwithstanding the upbeat economic readings, market gains were limited by weakness in technology and the strength of the US dollar.
For the week, the major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.80% while S&P 500 remained largely unchanged, advancing 0.04% to end at 1106.41. Nasdaq composite lost 0.18%.
The week ahead brings reports on housing, the labour market as well as consumer and wholesale inflation. The highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting will be held on Tuesday, concluding Wednesday and the market is expecting the federal funds rate to be held steady at historic lows near zero. Also, closely-watched is a statement about the economy, where central bankers will provide hints on when interest rates may be raised.
For the week, US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$5.60, or 7.42%, to US$69.87 a barrel as a result of the strengthening greenback.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The major regional markets enjoyed a boost on Friday after China reported better-than-expected industrial production, which jumped 19.1% in November. Mirroring the regional bourses, the STI advanced 0.68% on Friday, ending above the 2800 level for the first time this year and for the week, the index was 9.74 points, or 0.35%, higher to 2800.75.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement on Friday, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion increased 1 cent at 76.5 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects. Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, DBS, and OCBC that rose between 13 and 48 cents.
Expect market to consolidate today and sentiment to be cautious in the absence of fresh leads and as investors await the Federal Reserve meeting, where central bankers will provide an economic outlook and timing indications of an interest rate hike through a statement on Wednesday.
Mid day December 14. Market cautious ahead of FOMC meeting
Singapore shares eased in ear ly trading despite the positive Wall Street finish Friday. Dealers said market participants were cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting Tuesday and general weariness over the Dubai debt debacle. US$3.5bil worth of Nakheel property bonds were maturing today and investors would be keen to know if this gets paid. The STI index fell 1.06 points at 2799.69 points, reversing from its deeper earlier loss. For every stock that rose, 1.2 fell. Turnover was 653mil shares with a value of $525mil traded.
Over lunch, index futures recovered as the newswire reported that Abu Dhabi would provide funds for Dubai World to meet its obligations. With the fresh funding, it would appear that a default would be averted and this was drawing some buyers into the market. Stocks that rose were STX Panocean, DBS, Hwa Hong, Q&M Dental, Swiber, Keppel land, Yanlord, OUE, EDMI and Wing Tai that rose between 2 and 32 cents.
Suntec Reits slipped 2 cents at $1.26 on fears of a shares overhang foll o wing its recent placement announcement. Others like Jardine C&C, UOL, UOB, Wheelock and Singapore Land eased between 2 and 56 cents.
======
NRA Market Close December 14.
STI reversed from deeper loss to close slightly down.
Singapore shares eased in early trading despite the positive Wall Street finish Friday. Dealers said market participants were cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting Tuesday and general weariness over the Dubai debt debacle. US$3.5bil worth of Nakheel property bonds were maturing today and investors would be keen to know if this gets paid. The STI index closed slightly down 1.21 points at 2799.54 points, reversing from its deeper earlier loss. Market breadth was almost even, with 227 gainers and 212 decliners. Turnover was 1.2bil shares with a value of $1bil traded.
Over lunch, index futures recovered as the newswire reported that Abu Dhabi would provide funds for Dubai World to meet its obligations. With the fresh funding, it would appear that a default would be averted and this was
drawing some buyers into the market. However, this momentum stalled as the buying failed to gather momentum. Stocks that rose were STX Panocean,, Hwa Hong, Furama, City Dev, Capitaland, Keppel Land, and Guocoland, that rose between 5 and 18 cents.
Top losers for the day included Jardine C&C, UOL, UOB, Straits Trading, Haw Par and Sp Land, that eased between 6 and 58 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Friday, December 11, 2009
11 Dec 09 : Market Update
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 11 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10405.83 +68.78
Nasdaq Composite: 2190.86 +7.13
________________________________________
Wall Street staged a broad-based advance on Thursday as improved readings on trade deficit and housing market reassured investors about the economic recovery. US trade gap narrowed in October to US$32.9 bil, against expectations of a widening of trade gap to US$36.8 bil, from a revised US$35.7 bil in September due to higher exports. On the housing market, foreclosure filling fell 8% month-on-month in November, the fourth month in a row in which foreclosure fillings have dropped, although foreclosures are still up 20% from a year ago. These upbeat readings overshadowed mixed readings on weekly jobless claims with worse-than-expected new claims for unemployment rising to 474,000 last week, against expectations of a fall in claims to 455,000, from 457,000 in the previous week. However, the number of continuing claims declined to 5,156,000, better-than-expectations of 5,450,000 claims, from 5,460,000 in the previous week. A volatile greenback also cut into market gains.
All the major indices advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.67% and S&P 500 rising 0.58% to end at 1102.35. Nasdaq composite rose 0.33%.
Expect sentiment to take cues from economic readings due on Friday and these include the November retail sales report, preliminary consumer sentiment index for December, October business inventories and November import and export prices.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to decline, falling US$0.13 to settle at US$70.54 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite a stronger US session, Asian markets were mixed as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the close-watched US weekly jobless claims readings. In the local bourse, a Hong Kong-led sell off dragged the STI to a low of 2769, or a loss of about 28 points. However a firm opening across Europe, which led to a late burst of buying ahead of an anticipated rise on Wall Street, limited the STI’s loss to 15.35 points at 2781.86. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that gained, 1.48 fell. Turnover was 1.59 bil shares with a value of $1.41 bil traded.
Interests were on China XLX that tumbled 5 cents at 68 cents on 48mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded priced in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short- term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'.
Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, City Dev, DBS and OCBC bank retreated between 10 and 40 cents.
Expect market to strengthen taking cues from the overnight gains in Wall Street. However the upside is likely to be modest as investors are likely to take stay on the sidelines ahead of the weekend. Further, trading volume is expected to be light as many investors would rather coast through the year-end rather than shake up their portfolios at the end of the year.
=======================
Asian stocks rose, helped by positive leads from Wall Street.
Asian markets were opening to the upside help by positive leads from Wall Street that rose on encouraging jobless claims and trade deficit reports. The widely followed Hang Seng index spiked after Chinese economic data released suggested steady growth with no threat of inflation. Dealers said the spike in the index was due to stop loss (short covering trigger) on the index futures. The STI index rose 15.46 points at 2797.32 points. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was 683mil shares with a value of $608mil traded.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement today, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion rose 1.5 cents at 77 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects. Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, Olam, SingTel, City Developments, Ho Bee and SGX that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
On the balance, Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Venture Corp, Keppel Corp, HPL, ST Engineering, China XLX and UIC fell between 1 and 26 cents.
===========
Market Close December 11. STI closed higher for the day.
Asian markets were opening to the upside help by positive leads from Wall Street
that rose on encouraging jobless claims and trade deficit reports. The widely followed Hang Seng index spiked after Chinese economic data released suggested steady growth with no threat of inflation. Dealers said the spike in the index was due to stop loss ( short covering trigger) on the index futures. The STI index rose 18.89 points at 2800.75 points. For every stock that fell, 1.1 rose. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement today, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion rose 1 cent at 76.5 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects.
Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, DBS, and OCBC that rose between 13 and 48 cents. On the balance, Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Venture Corp, OUE, Sp Land, and Parkway that fell between 6 and 18 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10405.83 +68.78
Nasdaq Composite: 2190.86 +7.13
________________________________________
Wall Street staged a broad-based advance on Thursday as improved readings on trade deficit and housing market reassured investors about the economic recovery. US trade gap narrowed in October to US$32.9 bil, against expectations of a widening of trade gap to US$36.8 bil, from a revised US$35.7 bil in September due to higher exports. On the housing market, foreclosure filling fell 8% month-on-month in November, the fourth month in a row in which foreclosure fillings have dropped, although foreclosures are still up 20% from a year ago. These upbeat readings overshadowed mixed readings on weekly jobless claims with worse-than-expected new claims for unemployment rising to 474,000 last week, against expectations of a fall in claims to 455,000, from 457,000 in the previous week. However, the number of continuing claims declined to 5,156,000, better-than-expectations of 5,450,000 claims, from 5,460,000 in the previous week. A volatile greenback also cut into market gains.
All the major indices advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.67% and S&P 500 rising 0.58% to end at 1102.35. Nasdaq composite rose 0.33%.
Expect sentiment to take cues from economic readings due on Friday and these include the November retail sales report, preliminary consumer sentiment index for December, October business inventories and November import and export prices.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to decline, falling US$0.13 to settle at US$70.54 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite a stronger US session, Asian markets were mixed as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the close-watched US weekly jobless claims readings. In the local bourse, a Hong Kong-led sell off dragged the STI to a low of 2769, or a loss of about 28 points. However a firm opening across Europe, which led to a late burst of buying ahead of an anticipated rise on Wall Street, limited the STI’s loss to 15.35 points at 2781.86. Market breadth was negative and for every stock that gained, 1.48 fell. Turnover was 1.59 bil shares with a value of $1.41 bil traded.
Interests were on China XLX that tumbled 5 cents at 68 cents on 48mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded priced in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short- term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'.
Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, City Dev, DBS and OCBC bank retreated between 10 and 40 cents.
Expect market to strengthen taking cues from the overnight gains in Wall Street. However the upside is likely to be modest as investors are likely to take stay on the sidelines ahead of the weekend. Further, trading volume is expected to be light as many investors would rather coast through the year-end rather than shake up their portfolios at the end of the year.
=======================
Asian stocks rose, helped by positive leads from Wall Street.
Asian markets were opening to the upside help by positive leads from Wall Street that rose on encouraging jobless claims and trade deficit reports. The widely followed Hang Seng index spiked after Chinese economic data released suggested steady growth with no threat of inflation. Dealers said the spike in the index was due to stop loss (short covering trigger) on the index futures. The STI index rose 15.46 points at 2797.32 points. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was 683mil shares with a value of $608mil traded.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement today, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion rose 1.5 cents at 77 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects. Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, Olam, SingTel, City Developments, Ho Bee and SGX that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
On the balance, Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Venture Corp, Keppel Corp, HPL, ST Engineering, China XLX and UIC fell between 1 and 26 cents.
===========
Market Close December 11. STI closed higher for the day.
Asian markets were opening to the upside help by positive leads from Wall Street
that rose on encouraging jobless claims and trade deficit reports. The widely followed Hang Seng index spiked after Chinese economic data released suggested steady growth with no threat of inflation. Dealers said the spike in the index was due to stop loss ( short covering trigger) on the index futures. The STI index rose 18.89 points at 2800.75 points. For every stock that fell, 1.1 rose. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.
Suntec REITs announced a proposed private placement today, issuing 128.5mil new units at a discount of between 7 to 9.4 per cent to its last done price of $1.28. Dealers said the demand was good and expect the book run to top the high end of the indicative range. Suntec REITs was halted today pending the placement announcement. Shares of Ezion rose 1 cent at 76.5 cents even as oil prices slumped overnight. A local broker reiterated its buy call and highlighted the potential for Ezion to secure more contracts from the Gorgon and Wheatsone projects.
Stocks that rose were Jardine C&C, SIA, DBS, and OCBC that rose between 13 and 48 cents. On the balance, Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Venture Corp, OUE, Sp Land, and Parkway that fell between 6 and 18 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Thursday, December 10, 2009
10 Dec 09 : Market Drop and I go in
Was out between 11 am to 1 pm so could not catch the drastic drop in Singapore shares that period of time.
I went into 5 lots of Olam again (that's me :p) at $2.64 when I could have caught it at $2.60 or $2.61 but I was out. Let's see how this goes :0
===============================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 10 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10337.05 +51.08
Nasdaq Composite: 2183.73 +10.74
________________________________________
The US market rebounded on Wednesday after the slipping greenback boosted commodity stocks. A better-than-expected improvement in wholesale inventories in October, which rose 0.3% (against expectations of a 0.5% decline), after falling 0.8% in September as well as an analyst upgrade on 3M to a “buy” from “hold” as the company is expected to deliver superior financial returns over 2010, further lifted optimism.
All the major indices advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.50% and S&P 500 rising 0.37% to end at 1095.95. Nasdaq composite recovered 0.49%.
On Thursday, the October trade balance is due and the trade gap is expected to widen to US$37.1 bil from US$36.5 bil in September. On the same day, the weekly jobless claims reading and the flow of funds report, which is expected to show that the household net worth continues to fall in the second quarter of 2009 along with home values, are also expected.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to decline, falling US$1.95 to settle at US$70.67 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite steep falls in overseas markets, the STI index hovered around the 2800 level underpinned by banking stocks, implying that the index could be window-dressed. However, following a 1.4% decline in Hang Seng and a soft opening in Europe, the STI index caved in, losing 8.29 points to 2797.21. For every stock that gained, 1.05 fell. Turnover was high with 2.13 bil shares with a value of $1.75 bil traded.
Following the successful debut of China XLX in Hong Kong on Tuesday, potential dual listings provided the main targets for Wednesday trading session. As a result, stocks such as Oceanus, China New Town, China Milk and Midas were all in play, on hopes that if approvals were obtained to list in markets as Hong Kong and Taiwan, where valuations are higher, the respective stock prices in the local bourse will appreciate.
Expect the local bourse to rebound today taking cues from the overnight gains in the US market. But the upside is likely limited given that volumes have been falling and the recent volatility of global markets. We would not be surprised to see some intra-day profit taking instead.
============
Mid Day December 10. Asian markets mixed despite stronger US session.
Asian markets were mixed despite a stronger US session as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the closely watched US weekly jobless claims numbers. The STI index retreated from its perch at 2806 to close 27.56 points down at 2769.65 points. Market breadth was flat at best with the broader market flat on a lack of fresh leads. Turnover was 1bil shares with a value of $839mil traded.
Eyes were on the shares of China XLX that tumbled 5.5 cents at 66.5 cents on 35mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded price in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'. Shares of Z-Obee, YingLi, China Milk and Li Heng eased between half and 1.5 cents. Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, Singapore Land, OCBC bank, Noble Group, UOL, STX PanOcean, Parkway and Straits Asia retreated between 1 and 64 cents.
On the balance, shares of WBL Corp, SGX, Great Eastern Holdings, TPV, Semb Marine, Rotary and ST Engineering rose between 2 and 14 cents.
=======
Market Close December 10. STI closed lower for the day.
Asian markets were mixed despite a stronger US session as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the closely watched US weekly jobless claims numbers. The STI index retreated from its perch at 2806 to close 15.35 points down at 2781.86 points. Market breadth was negative with 193 gainers and 286 decliners. Turnover was 1.5bil shares with a value of $1.4bil traded.
Eyes were on the shares of China XLX that tumbled 5 cents at 68 cents on 48mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded price in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'.
Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, City Dev, DBS and OCBC bank retreated between 10 and 40 cents.
On the balance, shares of WBL Corp, SGX, Great Eastern Holdings, TPV, Semb Marine, and Kim Eng rose between 4 and 13 cents.
I went into 5 lots of Olam again (that's me :p) at $2.64 when I could have caught it at $2.60 or $2.61 but I was out. Let's see how this goes :0
===============================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 10 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10337.05 +51.08
Nasdaq Composite: 2183.73 +10.74
________________________________________
The US market rebounded on Wednesday after the slipping greenback boosted commodity stocks. A better-than-expected improvement in wholesale inventories in October, which rose 0.3% (against expectations of a 0.5% decline), after falling 0.8% in September as well as an analyst upgrade on 3M to a “buy” from “hold” as the company is expected to deliver superior financial returns over 2010, further lifted optimism.
All the major indices advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.50% and S&P 500 rising 0.37% to end at 1095.95. Nasdaq composite recovered 0.49%.
On Thursday, the October trade balance is due and the trade gap is expected to widen to US$37.1 bil from US$36.5 bil in September. On the same day, the weekly jobless claims reading and the flow of funds report, which is expected to show that the household net worth continues to fall in the second quarter of 2009 along with home values, are also expected.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to decline, falling US$1.95 to settle at US$70.67 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite steep falls in overseas markets, the STI index hovered around the 2800 level underpinned by banking stocks, implying that the index could be window-dressed. However, following a 1.4% decline in Hang Seng and a soft opening in Europe, the STI index caved in, losing 8.29 points to 2797.21. For every stock that gained, 1.05 fell. Turnover was high with 2.13 bil shares with a value of $1.75 bil traded.
Following the successful debut of China XLX in Hong Kong on Tuesday, potential dual listings provided the main targets for Wednesday trading session. As a result, stocks such as Oceanus, China New Town, China Milk and Midas were all in play, on hopes that if approvals were obtained to list in markets as Hong Kong and Taiwan, where valuations are higher, the respective stock prices in the local bourse will appreciate.
Expect the local bourse to rebound today taking cues from the overnight gains in the US market. But the upside is likely limited given that volumes have been falling and the recent volatility of global markets. We would not be surprised to see some intra-day profit taking instead.
============
Mid Day December 10. Asian markets mixed despite stronger US session.
Asian markets were mixed despite a stronger US session as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the closely watched US weekly jobless claims numbers. The STI index retreated from its perch at 2806 to close 27.56 points down at 2769.65 points. Market breadth was flat at best with the broader market flat on a lack of fresh leads. Turnover was 1bil shares with a value of $839mil traded.
Eyes were on the shares of China XLX that tumbled 5.5 cents at 66.5 cents on 35mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded price in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'. Shares of Z-Obee, YingLi, China Milk and Li Heng eased between half and 1.5 cents. Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, Singapore Land, OCBC bank, Noble Group, UOL, STX PanOcean, Parkway and Straits Asia retreated between 1 and 64 cents.
On the balance, shares of WBL Corp, SGX, Great Eastern Holdings, TPV, Semb Marine, Rotary and ST Engineering rose between 2 and 14 cents.
=======
Market Close December 10. STI closed lower for the day.
Asian markets were mixed despite a stronger US session as traders took stock of recent gains while waiting for the closely watched US weekly jobless claims numbers. The STI index retreated from its perch at 2806 to close 15.35 points down at 2781.86 points. Market breadth was negative with 193 gainers and 286 decliners. Turnover was 1.5bil shares with a value of $1.4bil traded.
Eyes were on the shares of China XLX that tumbled 5 cents at 68 cents on 48mil shares. The premium has now narrowed to about 10 per cent given the lower traded price in Hong Kong. A dealer said many short term traders were caught out given the choppy trading of China XLX and now many investors are learning the `tedious wait to get the shares transferred to Hong Kong'. This had the effect of depressing the price action of the other S-chips that had risen in recent sessions on the optimism of `dual-listing play'.
Other issues that fell were Jardine C&C, UOB, Jardine Matheson, City Dev, DBS and OCBC bank retreated between 10 and 40 cents.
On the balance, shares of WBL Corp, SGX, Great Eastern Holdings, TPV, Semb Marine, and Kim Eng rose between 4 and 13 cents.
Labels:
Olam
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
09 Dec 09 : My biggest FX win
Did a short in USD/JPY today. It broke the support and I shorted at 88.22. In just 2 hours, it hit my Target Profit of 87.60 which gives me about 62 pips (=USD70.78). My biggest FX win for the moment (for the past week, i had several demo wins of up to 100 pips and hence feeling much more confident). Glad to be reading up on the different methods and finding that Price Action is worth the study !
Capital Mall Asia continues to do well. I have just 1 lot in CPF :)
==================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 09 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10285.97 -104.14
Nasdaq Composite: 2172.99 -16.62
________________________________________
The US market tumbled on Tuesday as global markets slipped following reports of continued weakness in the manufacturing sector in the UK and Germany, Japanese government’s approval of a US$81bil stimulus package to prevent a double-dip recession and Dubai debt woes resurfaced after a credit agency cut its ratings on six Dubai state-connected companies. A firmer greenback, which pressured dollar-traded commodities and commodities stocks, and some disappointing profit news from McDonald’s and Kroger added further strain to market weakness.
All the major indices slipped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.00% and S&P 500 falling 1.03% to end at 1091.94. Nasdaq composite lost 0.76%.
Expect reports on wholesale inventories for October and weekly crude oil inventories on Wednesday.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to retrace, falling US$1.31 to settle at US$72.62 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a slow trading day on Tuesday, following an uninspiring Monday close in the US market with key indices closing lower on weaker financials and technology. A firmer greenback and cautious sentiment steered investors towards safe haven stocks in the utilities and telecoms sectors. The STI index was moving within a narrow range before closing 8.52 points higher at 2805.5. For every stock that fell, 1.61 rose. Interest was on lowly-priced penny stocks and China XLX, resulting in the average units traded, which hovered above $1 last week, of about 76 cents (excluding foreign currency issues) with turnover of 1.75 bil shares with a value of $1.28 bil traded.
China XLX provided the main excitement to a dull Tuesday as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucrative, there were risks too. `It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'. China XLX shares closed 26 cents up at 77 cents on 182mil shares. Shares of Novena extended gains, adding half a cent at 22.5 cents on 76mil shares on rumours of a contract win. Capitamalls Asia rose 2 cents at $2.60 on institutional buying. Other issues that rose were UOB, SIA, City Development and Haw Par that rose between 10 and 34 cents.
Expect sentiment to remain cautious and market to consolidate today taking cues from the weaker US market close overnight.
==============
Wall Street's poor close did little to dampen sentiments here as traders saw the pullback as another opportunity to buy. Traders were however weary of the strong rebound in the US dollars that could lead to further unwinding of carry trades that could potentially spoil the festive party. The STI index recovered from its morning knee jerk low of 2787.1 points to end 4.45 points down at 2801.05 points. For every stock that fell, 1.1 rose. Turnover was 1.1bil shares with a value of $863mil traded.
Thanks to the successful listing of China XLX shares in Hong Kong yesterday, traders now have a wish list of shares that could follow suit and enjoy a higher premium trading there. Where fungibility is not an issue, investors appear happy to buy their shares here, pay the transaction costs of the transfer and wait; so as to sell at a higher price in Hong Kong (provided there is no drastic tumble in the meantime). On its second day of trading, China XLX was priced at about $1 (equivalent) while its Singapore listed unit traded 1 cent down at 76 cents. Traders were quick to swoop down on stocks `they thought' would make an attempt to list in Hong Kong.
Shares of Yingli, Pan Hong and SinoTel rose between 1.5 and 3 cents.
AsiaTravel shares climbed 2.5 cents at 71 cents on talks of a contract win.
Capitamalls Asia rose 5 cents at $2.65 on `passive rebalancing ' as it would be included in the MSCI Standard and Mid cap index as of tomorrow. Others like Jardine Matheson, UOB, KS Energy, OCBC bank and STX Panocean rose between 3 and 24 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, SPH, DBS, Keppel Corp, Haw Par, Singapore Land, SIA, Wilmar, Venture Corp and Indo Agric fell between 2 and 36 cents.
=============
Capital Mall Asia continues to do well. I have just 1 lot in CPF :)
==================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 09 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10285.97 -104.14
Nasdaq Composite: 2172.99 -16.62
________________________________________
The US market tumbled on Tuesday as global markets slipped following reports of continued weakness in the manufacturing sector in the UK and Germany, Japanese government’s approval of a US$81bil stimulus package to prevent a double-dip recession and Dubai debt woes resurfaced after a credit agency cut its ratings on six Dubai state-connected companies. A firmer greenback, which pressured dollar-traded commodities and commodities stocks, and some disappointing profit news from McDonald’s and Kroger added further strain to market weakness.
All the major indices slipped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.00% and S&P 500 falling 1.03% to end at 1091.94. Nasdaq composite lost 0.76%.
Expect reports on wholesale inventories for October and weekly crude oil inventories on Wednesday.
US light crude oil for January delivery continued to retrace, falling US$1.31 to settle at US$72.62 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a slow trading day on Tuesday, following an uninspiring Monday close in the US market with key indices closing lower on weaker financials and technology. A firmer greenback and cautious sentiment steered investors towards safe haven stocks in the utilities and telecoms sectors. The STI index was moving within a narrow range before closing 8.52 points higher at 2805.5. For every stock that fell, 1.61 rose. Interest was on lowly-priced penny stocks and China XLX, resulting in the average units traded, which hovered above $1 last week, of about 76 cents (excluding foreign currency issues) with turnover of 1.75 bil shares with a value of $1.28 bil traded.
China XLX provided the main excitement to a dull Tuesday as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucrative, there were risks too. `It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'. China XLX shares closed 26 cents up at 77 cents on 182mil shares. Shares of Novena extended gains, adding half a cent at 22.5 cents on 76mil shares on rumours of a contract win. Capitamalls Asia rose 2 cents at $2.60 on institutional buying. Other issues that rose were UOB, SIA, City Development and Haw Par that rose between 10 and 34 cents.
Expect sentiment to remain cautious and market to consolidate today taking cues from the weaker US market close overnight.
==============
Wall Street's poor close did little to dampen sentiments here as traders saw the pullback as another opportunity to buy. Traders were however weary of the strong rebound in the US dollars that could lead to further unwinding of carry trades that could potentially spoil the festive party. The STI index recovered from its morning knee jerk low of 2787.1 points to end 4.45 points down at 2801.05 points. For every stock that fell, 1.1 rose. Turnover was 1.1bil shares with a value of $863mil traded.
Thanks to the successful listing of China XLX shares in Hong Kong yesterday, traders now have a wish list of shares that could follow suit and enjoy a higher premium trading there. Where fungibility is not an issue, investors appear happy to buy their shares here, pay the transaction costs of the transfer and wait; so as to sell at a higher price in Hong Kong (provided there is no drastic tumble in the meantime). On its second day of trading, China XLX was priced at about $1 (equivalent) while its Singapore listed unit traded 1 cent down at 76 cents. Traders were quick to swoop down on stocks `they thought' would make an attempt to list in Hong Kong.
Shares of Yingli, Pan Hong and SinoTel rose between 1.5 and 3 cents.
AsiaTravel shares climbed 2.5 cents at 71 cents on talks of a contract win.
Capitamalls Asia rose 5 cents at $2.65 on `passive rebalancing ' as it would be included in the MSCI Standard and Mid cap index as of tomorrow. Others like Jardine Matheson, UOB, KS Energy, OCBC bank and STX Panocean rose between 3 and 24 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, SPH, DBS, Keppel Corp, Haw Par, Singapore Land, SIA, Wilmar, Venture Corp and Indo Agric fell between 2 and 36 cents.
=============
Labels:
CapitalMall Asia,
FX Trading
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
08 Dec 09 : Market Stuck Again
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 08 December 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10390.11 +1.21
Nasdaq Composite: 2189.61 -4.74
________________________________________
After a choppy trading session, the US market closed mixed as a stronger greenback dragged down dollar-traded commodities prices and pressured the equities markets. The strengthening greenback was led by concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected if the economy improves ahead of expectations following a better-than-expected November jobs report last Friday, which showed that unemployment rate has fallen to 10%. However, through a speech, the Fed Chairman downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike, saying “it is too soon to say whether the slowly-germinating recovery will last.”
The major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely changing with a marginal 0.01% gain while S&P 500 lost 0.25% to end at 1103.25. Nasdaq composite shed 0.22%.
Tuesday brings the mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments as well as President Obama’s speech on the US economy. On the same day, Barclays will hold a Technology conference, which will be attended by tech companies including Intel, Microsoft and Netflix. Separately, there will be a Goldman Sachs US Financial Services conference participated by companies including JPMorgan Chase, MasterCard and Regions Financial.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$1.67 to settle at US$73.80 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a slow start to Monday trading as investors reacted to the better-than-expected US unemployment data and the strengthening of the US dollars. Concerns over an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike, in reaction to the improved jobs outlook, resulting in a firmer US dollar could influence an unwinding of carry trades and softer equities. The STI index closed a marginal 5.56 points higher at 2796.57. Expectations that the US market may weaken on the back of a further firming of greenback, a sharp drop in the Hong Kong bourses just prior to market close and a weak opening in Europe led to the weak close. For every stock that gained, 1.13 rose. Turnover was a moderate 1.27bil shares with a value of only S$1.0 bil traded as the focus was on second-liners playing catch-up.
Shares of Yingli rose 1 cent at 63.5 cents after a local broker issued a buy report with a target of $1.20. CapitaLand shares rose 5 cents at $4.16 as investors speculated on the quantum of `special dividend' that might be paid out post the successful listing of Capitamalls Asia. The brighter economic outlook was helping economic sensitives like Venture, DBS, Spore Land, Guocoland, Straits Trading, Kep Corp, City Developments, and UIC climb between 6 and 27 cents.
=====
NRA Mid Day December 8. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range.
US stocks had an uninspiring Monday close with its key indices finishing lower on weaker financials and tech. A stronger dollar accompanied lower risk appetites and was a reason why safe haven stocks like utilities and telecoms rose. Asian markets faltered led by the Shanghai Composite index's 1.3 per cent decline. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range and ended the session 2.01 points up at 2798.99 points. Market breadth was flat at best with traders keeping to active issues. Turnover was 584mil shares with a value of $486mil traded.
China XLX shares were the toast of town today as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucrative, there were risks too.`It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'.
China XLX shares closed 8.5 cents up at 59.5 cents on 39mil shares. Shares of Novena extended gains, adding 1 cent at 23 cents on 64mil shares on rumours of a contract win.
Capitamalls Asia rose 7 cents at $2.65 on institutional buying and was a boost for CapitaLand that added 1 cent at $4.17. Other issues that rose were UOB, Jardine C&C, City Developments, Great Eastern Holdings, Wheelock, Haw Par, APB, Venture Corp, Swiber and Noble Group that rose between 2 and 24 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX Panocean, Transpac, Singapore Land, DBS, ST Engineering, Olam, Semb Corp and Ho Bee eased between 1 and 60 cents.
===========================================
Market close Dec 8. Asian shares lacklustre today
Asian markets faltered today led by the Shanghai Composite index's 1.3 per cent decline. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range and ended up 8.52 points to 2805.50. Market breadth was flat at best with traders keeping to active issues. Turnover was 1.75bil shares with a value of $1.28bil traded.
China XLX shares were the toast of town today as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucurative, there were risks too. `It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'. China XLX shares closed 26 cents up at 77 cents on 182mil shares.
Shares of Novena extended gains, adding half a cent at 22.5 cents on 76mil shares on rumours of a contract win. Capitamalls Asia rose 2 cents at $2.60on institutional buying. Other issues that rose were UO B, SIA, City Development and Haw Par that rose between 10 and 34 cents.
On the balance, shares of Transpac. JMH, JSH, Hsu Fu Chi, STX Panocean, and Kep Land eased between 6 and 46 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10390.11 +1.21
Nasdaq Composite: 2189.61 -4.74
________________________________________
After a choppy trading session, the US market closed mixed as a stronger greenback dragged down dollar-traded commodities prices and pressured the equities markets. The strengthening greenback was led by concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected if the economy improves ahead of expectations following a better-than-expected November jobs report last Friday, which showed that unemployment rate has fallen to 10%. However, through a speech, the Fed Chairman downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike, saying “it is too soon to say whether the slowly-germinating recovery will last.”
The major indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely changing with a marginal 0.01% gain while S&P 500 lost 0.25% to end at 1103.25. Nasdaq composite shed 0.22%.
Tuesday brings the mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments as well as President Obama’s speech on the US economy. On the same day, Barclays will hold a Technology conference, which will be attended by tech companies including Intel, Microsoft and Netflix. Separately, there will be a Goldman Sachs US Financial Services conference participated by companies including JPMorgan Chase, MasterCard and Regions Financial.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell US$1.67 to settle at US$73.80 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
It was a slow start to Monday trading as investors reacted to the better-than-expected US unemployment data and the strengthening of the US dollars. Concerns over an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike, in reaction to the improved jobs outlook, resulting in a firmer US dollar could influence an unwinding of carry trades and softer equities. The STI index closed a marginal 5.56 points higher at 2796.57. Expectations that the US market may weaken on the back of a further firming of greenback, a sharp drop in the Hong Kong bourses just prior to market close and a weak opening in Europe led to the weak close. For every stock that gained, 1.13 rose. Turnover was a moderate 1.27bil shares with a value of only S$1.0 bil traded as the focus was on second-liners playing catch-up.
Shares of Yingli rose 1 cent at 63.5 cents after a local broker issued a buy report with a target of $1.20. CapitaLand shares rose 5 cents at $4.16 as investors speculated on the quantum of `special dividend' that might be paid out post the successful listing of Capitamalls Asia. The brighter economic outlook was helping economic sensitives like Venture, DBS, Spore Land, Guocoland, Straits Trading, Kep Corp, City Developments, and UIC climb between 6 and 27 cents.
=====
NRA Mid Day December 8. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range.
US stocks had an uninspiring Monday close with its key indices finishing lower on weaker financials and tech. A stronger dollar accompanied lower risk appetites and was a reason why safe haven stocks like utilities and telecoms rose. Asian markets faltered led by the Shanghai Composite index's 1.3 per cent decline. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range and ended the session 2.01 points up at 2798.99 points. Market breadth was flat at best with traders keeping to active issues. Turnover was 584mil shares with a value of $486mil traded.
China XLX shares were the toast of town today as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucrative, there were risks too.`It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'.
China XLX shares closed 8.5 cents up at 59.5 cents on 39mil shares. Shares of Novena extended gains, adding 1 cent at 23 cents on 64mil shares on rumours of a contract win.
Capitamalls Asia rose 7 cents at $2.65 on institutional buying and was a boost for CapitaLand that added 1 cent at $4.17. Other issues that rose were UOB, Jardine C&C, City Developments, Great Eastern Holdings, Wheelock, Haw Par, APB, Venture Corp, Swiber and Noble Group that rose between 2 and 24 cents.
On the balance, shares of STX Panocean, Transpac, Singapore Land, DBS, ST Engineering, Olam, Semb Corp and Ho Bee eased between 1 and 60 cents.
===========================================
Market close Dec 8. Asian shares lacklustre today
Asian markets faltered today led by the Shanghai Composite index's 1.3 per cent decline. Singapore shares traded in a narrow range and ended up 8.52 points to 2805.50. Market breadth was flat at best with traders keeping to active issues. Turnover was 1.75bil shares with a value of $1.28bil traded.
China XLX shares were the toast of town today as the debut of its dual listing shares in Hong Kong breathes new life into the counter. Traders and investors alike were `exploring the idea of transferring their shares to Hong Kong' where it was trading at HK$6.68 or an equivalent of S$1.20. A dealer mused that while it may look lucurative, there were risks too. `It could take up to 6 weeks to transfer the shares there and currently, it is very illiquid in Hong Kong'. China XLX shares closed 26 cents up at 77 cents on 182mil shares.
Shares of Novena extended gains, adding half a cent at 22.5 cents on 76mil shares on rumours of a contract win. Capitamalls Asia rose 2 cents at $2.60on institutional buying. Other issues that rose were UO B, SIA, City Development and Haw Par that rose between 10 and 34 cents.
On the balance, shares of Transpac. JMH, JSH, Hsu Fu Chi, STX Panocean, and Kep Land eased between 6 and 46 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
The Dollar Link
The Dollar Link
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The currency markets have a newly enhanced obsession with statistics. Ten years ago economic statistics engaged the market two or three times a month. Major economic indicators like the United States International Trade Balance or the unemployment rate would command the speculative attention of the market and the occasional surprise results made for some interesting volatility.
But of late traders have begun keeping close tabs on a much larger group of statistics. Many market players are using these 'secondary' statistics as they once did the majors indicators, as trading points and signposts of economic direction. Is this just a temporary change of market trading style or is it the beginning of a new relationship between traders and their economic information?
You can fairly blame Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the European Central Bank (ECB) for the recent focus of currency traders with the statistical reflections of economic growth.
The world's central banks have adopted a new transparency in their dealings with the global economic environment. Their attitude can be summarized in the old advice given to beginning writers, 'tell the reader what you are going to say, say it, then tell the reader what you have said'. Both Jean Claude Trichet of the ECB and Mr. Bernanke have repeatedly outlined their economic concerns and their view of the econometric future. They have specified the statistics they consider the most telling and the logic that relates to economic growth and inflation. They have repeated these views with almost every policy statement.
Gone from the markets is the speculative leeway inherent in former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's famous quote "If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said". Operating under that cryptic advice traders could actively speculate because they did not know precisely was in the chairman's mind, and it was unlikely that their guess would be proven wrong by a particular set of statistics.
But now, with the far more utilitarian Ben Bernanke providing the clues, currency traders cannot speculate on what the Chairman may be thinking; he has already told them. They cannot bet on which statistics are uppermost in the ECB president's thoughts; he has already provided the list. Every currency position can now be readily checked against the latest economic information. Market positioning is far more subject to constant evaluation and correction than ever before.
For speculative trading nothing can beat an unexpected result for a major statistical release. Historically, statistics have delivered the most concentrated regular volatility to the markets. Ten years ago only a limited number of American economy wide statistics, unemployment, GDP, International Trade Balance and CPI could cause major currency gyrations. The US statistical regime that most traders watched a decade ago was limited to a few major national statistics collected by the government.
In the past ten years and most dramatically in the past five, the market and the media focus has expanded to include many second and third tier statistics. The US economy is the most statistically documented and reported economy in the world. There are easily enough PPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment, durable goods, retail sales, ISM and Redbook numbers reported each month to keep an army of actuaries busy. How can traders judge which statistics deserve our undivided attention and which are of cursory or cumulative interest?
Most statistics give a partial picture of the economy. Their reach is limited to either a specific sector of the economy or to a narrow timeframe. The results from a specific economic sector may or may not predict the outlook for the overall economy.
As an example let us look at the housing sector. Different indicators, existing home sales, new home sales and building permits, can give an accurate glimpse of activity in this particular economic sector but not necessarily of the economy as a whole. The housing economy was declining long before the general economy slipped into recession.
But even when monthly statistics from the same sector point in a similar direction only several months of releases can establish a trend. Likewise, indicators from different areas of the economy can provide an effective window on future growth but only when combined and heading in the same direction. A drop in the monthly capacity utilization figure or a rise in the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment measure by itself provides limited information for the trader. But if in the space of a month the consumer sentiment numbers rose, factory orders outstripped predictions and the various ISM readings were positive then traders can look with more confidence at the positive direction predicted for the economy.
Mr. Bernanke has been particularly forthcoming about the indicators he watches. His favored scenario, slow economic growth restraining inflation, has brought attention to the PCE Deflator, correctly the Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food and Energy, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Commerce Department. Mr. Bernanke has said he would like this measure to be near 2.0 %. With that information the market can note both the difference between the released figure and the expected number and the distance from the ideal.
Mr. Bernanke's overriding concern for economic growth has also brought to the fore a number of forward looking measures from the consumer and business sides of the economy. The University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Confidence reading and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence have attracted increased market attention as have the various ISM numbers and the Chicago Purchasers Index. While these numbers do offer a view to the immediate future, asking as they do about manager and consumer predictions in the next few months their volatility is well known.
The ECB has two favored inflation statistics, the monthly Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), a uniform Eurozone wide inflation measure and the M3 Money Supply growth number. The ECB has hard targets for each, 2.0% for inflation and an 8.0% for M3. But reading for both have been well below the targets since the recession began. The ECB also relies on more traditional measures such as GDP and various national economic statistics. The statistical regime of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is far newer that that of the United States and does not as carefully document the entire EMU.
For traders the statistical keys are twofold; what statistics are favored by the central bankers and which indicators give important information about the economy. The two are not necessarily the same.
Interest rates still dominate relations between currencies and it is the banks that determine rates. Developments in a bank's favorite statistics will inform a pending decision. But for traders looking for an edge, a personal view of the economy is essential and that means watching those secondary statistics. That is particularly true, as last fall, when all those small indicators point in a different direction than the bank's large ones.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The currency markets have a newly enhanced obsession with statistics. Ten years ago economic statistics engaged the market two or three times a month. Major economic indicators like the United States International Trade Balance or the unemployment rate would command the speculative attention of the market and the occasional surprise results made for some interesting volatility.
But of late traders have begun keeping close tabs on a much larger group of statistics. Many market players are using these 'secondary' statistics as they once did the majors indicators, as trading points and signposts of economic direction. Is this just a temporary change of market trading style or is it the beginning of a new relationship between traders and their economic information?
You can fairly blame Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the European Central Bank (ECB) for the recent focus of currency traders with the statistical reflections of economic growth.
The world's central banks have adopted a new transparency in their dealings with the global economic environment. Their attitude can be summarized in the old advice given to beginning writers, 'tell the reader what you are going to say, say it, then tell the reader what you have said'. Both Jean Claude Trichet of the ECB and Mr. Bernanke have repeatedly outlined their economic concerns and their view of the econometric future. They have specified the statistics they consider the most telling and the logic that relates to economic growth and inflation. They have repeated these views with almost every policy statement.
Gone from the markets is the speculative leeway inherent in former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's famous quote "If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said". Operating under that cryptic advice traders could actively speculate because they did not know precisely was in the chairman's mind, and it was unlikely that their guess would be proven wrong by a particular set of statistics.
But now, with the far more utilitarian Ben Bernanke providing the clues, currency traders cannot speculate on what the Chairman may be thinking; he has already told them. They cannot bet on which statistics are uppermost in the ECB president's thoughts; he has already provided the list. Every currency position can now be readily checked against the latest economic information. Market positioning is far more subject to constant evaluation and correction than ever before.
For speculative trading nothing can beat an unexpected result for a major statistical release. Historically, statistics have delivered the most concentrated regular volatility to the markets. Ten years ago only a limited number of American economy wide statistics, unemployment, GDP, International Trade Balance and CPI could cause major currency gyrations. The US statistical regime that most traders watched a decade ago was limited to a few major national statistics collected by the government.
In the past ten years and most dramatically in the past five, the market and the media focus has expanded to include many second and third tier statistics. The US economy is the most statistically documented and reported economy in the world. There are easily enough PPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment, durable goods, retail sales, ISM and Redbook numbers reported each month to keep an army of actuaries busy. How can traders judge which statistics deserve our undivided attention and which are of cursory or cumulative interest?
Most statistics give a partial picture of the economy. Their reach is limited to either a specific sector of the economy or to a narrow timeframe. The results from a specific economic sector may or may not predict the outlook for the overall economy.
As an example let us look at the housing sector. Different indicators, existing home sales, new home sales and building permits, can give an accurate glimpse of activity in this particular economic sector but not necessarily of the economy as a whole. The housing economy was declining long before the general economy slipped into recession.
But even when monthly statistics from the same sector point in a similar direction only several months of releases can establish a trend. Likewise, indicators from different areas of the economy can provide an effective window on future growth but only when combined and heading in the same direction. A drop in the monthly capacity utilization figure or a rise in the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment measure by itself provides limited information for the trader. But if in the space of a month the consumer sentiment numbers rose, factory orders outstripped predictions and the various ISM readings were positive then traders can look with more confidence at the positive direction predicted for the economy.
Mr. Bernanke has been particularly forthcoming about the indicators he watches. His favored scenario, slow economic growth restraining inflation, has brought attention to the PCE Deflator, correctly the Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food and Energy, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Commerce Department. Mr. Bernanke has said he would like this measure to be near 2.0 %. With that information the market can note both the difference between the released figure and the expected number and the distance from the ideal.
Mr. Bernanke's overriding concern for economic growth has also brought to the fore a number of forward looking measures from the consumer and business sides of the economy. The University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Confidence reading and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence have attracted increased market attention as have the various ISM numbers and the Chicago Purchasers Index. While these numbers do offer a view to the immediate future, asking as they do about manager and consumer predictions in the next few months their volatility is well known.
The ECB has two favored inflation statistics, the monthly Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), a uniform Eurozone wide inflation measure and the M3 Money Supply growth number. The ECB has hard targets for each, 2.0% for inflation and an 8.0% for M3. But reading for both have been well below the targets since the recession began. The ECB also relies on more traditional measures such as GDP and various national economic statistics. The statistical regime of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is far newer that that of the United States and does not as carefully document the entire EMU.
For traders the statistical keys are twofold; what statistics are favored by the central bankers and which indicators give important information about the economy. The two are not necessarily the same.
Interest rates still dominate relations between currencies and it is the banks that determine rates. Developments in a bank's favorite statistics will inform a pending decision. But for traders looking for an edge, a personal view of the economy is essential and that means watching those secondary statistics. That is particularly true, as last fall, when all those small indicators point in a different direction than the bank's large ones.
Labels:
FX Trading
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