Pre-Market Open Commentary for 30 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10309.92 -154.48
Nasdaq Composite: 2138.44 -37.61
________________________________________
The US market tumbled on Friday afternoon, with the major indices falling by 1.5% to 1.7%, as fears about the fallout from Dubai’s debt problem, a rallying dollar and a selloff in commodities unnerved Wall Street in a thinly-traded half-day session following Thanksgiving. For the week, the major indices ended relatively flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping 0.08% while S&P 500 gained marginally by 0.01% to end at 1091.49. Nasdaq composite lost 0.35%.
On a positive note, initial reports and projections released over the weekend for Black Friday showed that despite the brutal job market, decline in personal wealth and lingering concerns about the economy, consumers are willing to take advantage of deals on clothing, toys, electronics and entertainment. However, the mildly upbeat news is expected to overshadow Dubai’s debt problem, which is expected to continue to exert pressure at the beginning of the new week ahead.
This week will also bring significant readings on manufacturing, housing and the labour market with the November jobs report due on Friday. On Monday, Cyber Monday will be scrutinized for signs that the consumer is participating in online shopping following the long Thanksgiving weekend, together with a regional reading on manufacturing.
For the week, US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$0.67, or 0.87%, to US$76.05 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The world financial markets slumped last week after the Dubai government said its flagship conglomerate needed a six-month standstill on US$59b debt, triggering fears of default. Key Asian bourses were bruised last Friday with Hang Seng Index plunging 4.8%, Nikkei falling 3.2% and Kospi sinking 4.7%. The STI index fell 30.62 points to 2762.22 on the close of last Thursday, ahead of the long weekend. For the week, the STI remained relatively unchanged, gaining a mere 0.02%.
Expect a delayed selldown today in the wake of the Dubai debt problem, which surfaced mid-last week, after the long weekend. Also highly-anticipated are the key US economic readings on monthly unemployment rate and payroll data due this Friday.
===============
Mid day November 30. Singapore shares spared steep sell-offs
Singapore shares were spared the sell-off that happened to Asia last Friday as jittery investors reacted to the news of the Dubai debt default. After the steep loss of Friday, Asian markets posted gains Monday on bargain hunting as Dubai fears subside. The STI index fell 0.8 per cent ( off in lieu selling) or 24.48 points at 2737.74 points. The STI exchange traded fund traded in New York had slumped 2.5 per cent on Friday. For every stock that rose, 7 fell. Turnover was 964mil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Singapore banks were weaker, bringing themselves in line with its peers on program sell orders. DBS Bank swooned 32 cents at $14.44 and was tracked by OCBC Bank and UOB that fell 12 and 14 cents. Other stocks that fell included Jardine Matheson, APB, Venture Corp, STX Panocean, UOL, Keppel Corp and Great Eastern that fell between 4 and 60 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, SGX, CapitalMall Trust, China XLX, PEC, Petra and Comfort Delgro rose between 1 and 24 cents.
Showing newest 20 of 27 posts from November 2009. Show older posts
Showing newest 20 of 27 posts from November 2009. Show older posts
Monday, November 30, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Is Dubai problems the start of another bad run ?
A nasty reminder of Dubai's debt problems
Dubai was built on the back of low taxes, cheap credit and petrodollars. And let’s not forget, slave labour (if you haven’t already seen this expose by Independent journalist, Johann Hari, it’s well worth reading: The dark side of Dubai). So when the cheap credit vanished and the oil price collapsed in 2008, it was always going to be one of the first places to suffer.
And suffer it did. David Wighton in The Times points out that around 400 building projects with an estimated worth of more than $300bn are thought to have shuddered to a halt, as property prices have tumbled by around 60%.
But then, just like everyone else on the planet who built their livelihoods on the credit bubble, Dubai found a benefactor to bail it out. In this case it was Abu Dhabi (the capital of the UAE), which came along and saved its fellow emirate by buying $10bn-worth of government bonds.
Sure it didn't do much for Dubai's overall debt load (in total, the emirate - including state-backed companies such as Dubai World - owes more than $80bn). But it sorted out its short-term liquidity problems. So everything was sort of fine. Building came to a standstill of course. But there was a lot going on in the rest of the world, so people forgot about Dubai. Things started to get better elsewhere too. Risk appetite started to pick up. Stock markets bounced across the globe. Investors started to think: “What was all that fuss in 2008 about anyway?”
Then yesterday, state-owned conglomerate Dubai World, which is responsible for about $60bn of that $80bn in debt, turned around to its lenders and said: “You know that money you gave us? Well, we need a bit more time to pay it back.” Despite Dubai’s clear problems, the news came as a shock, to say the least. The cost of insuring against governments defaulting on their debt jumped, not just in the Emirates, but across the Gulf, reports Bloomberg.
And it couldn't have come at a worse time
So what’s happened? The Government of Dubai has asked Dubai World’s creditors to agree to a six-month standstill on the conglomerate's debts “until at least” 30 May 2010, while the company is restructured. That’s worrying enough. But what also concerned investors is that the Government of Dubai had also just raised a further $5bn from Abu Dhabi.
Now, according to FT Alphaville, traders had expected this money to be used to repay $3.5bn in bonds issued by Dubai World’s property unit, Nakheel (the company which built the artificial palm tree resort much beloved by footballers). This $3.5bn loan falls due on 14 December. But now it won’t be repaid until at least the end of May.
And just to add the icing on the cake, Dubai has now shut down for Eid, until early December, which could mean further details will be a while in coming.
As RBS analyst Okan Akin told City AM: “The timing could not have been worse.” After all, it’s not as though Nakheel investors have been given a lot of notice here. If you’d been planning on that money being paid back soon, you might be a little annoyed, to say the least - particularly as Dubai has been swearing for months that it would meet its obligations without any problems. The Emirate’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum “publicly pledged his support for the group and its obligations” earlier this month, notes the FT’s Lex column. “Investors, perhaps foolishly, took him at his word.”
Norval Loftus, head of Islamic debt at Matrix Group, tells Bloomberg: “The worst case scenario will of course be involuntary restructuring on the Nakheel security that brings into question the entire nature of sovereign support for various borrowers in the region.”
What’s that mean? As Moody’s put it: “Nakheel… sets a major precedent for a high-profile, seemingly strategic company facing debt repayment difficulties and thus relying on the government for support. A restructuring of its obligations would indicate that the government is prepared to allow a government-related issuer to default on its obligations.” In other words, this case may show that lenders can’t depend on the notion that governments will always make sure that apparently state-backed companies will repay their debts. And that would make an awful lot of other Dubai-backed debt look far riskier than investors have been accounting for.
A valuable warning for the rest of us
What does Dubai mean for the rest of us? Well, it’s a valuable warning that there are nasty little financial time-bombs lurking everywhere across the world. Already we’ve been reminded by credit ratings agencies, that a huge number of the world’s banks remain under-capitalised.
It’s also a very important warning that you can’t trust governments. They’re prone to covering things up for the “greater good” – which is government-speak for “covering our backsides”. Given the role of the state in markets across the world right now, that’s not very reassuring.
We’ve been wondering when investors would get the nasty shock that reminds them that the world is a dangerous place. This could be just the beginning.
Dubai was built on the back of low taxes, cheap credit and petrodollars. And let’s not forget, slave labour (if you haven’t already seen this expose by Independent journalist, Johann Hari, it’s well worth reading: The dark side of Dubai). So when the cheap credit vanished and the oil price collapsed in 2008, it was always going to be one of the first places to suffer.
And suffer it did. David Wighton in The Times points out that around 400 building projects with an estimated worth of more than $300bn are thought to have shuddered to a halt, as property prices have tumbled by around 60%.
But then, just like everyone else on the planet who built their livelihoods on the credit bubble, Dubai found a benefactor to bail it out. In this case it was Abu Dhabi (the capital of the UAE), which came along and saved its fellow emirate by buying $10bn-worth of government bonds.
Sure it didn't do much for Dubai's overall debt load (in total, the emirate - including state-backed companies such as Dubai World - owes more than $80bn). But it sorted out its short-term liquidity problems. So everything was sort of fine. Building came to a standstill of course. But there was a lot going on in the rest of the world, so people forgot about Dubai. Things started to get better elsewhere too. Risk appetite started to pick up. Stock markets bounced across the globe. Investors started to think: “What was all that fuss in 2008 about anyway?”
Then yesterday, state-owned conglomerate Dubai World, which is responsible for about $60bn of that $80bn in debt, turned around to its lenders and said: “You know that money you gave us? Well, we need a bit more time to pay it back.” Despite Dubai’s clear problems, the news came as a shock, to say the least. The cost of insuring against governments defaulting on their debt jumped, not just in the Emirates, but across the Gulf, reports Bloomberg.
And it couldn't have come at a worse time
So what’s happened? The Government of Dubai has asked Dubai World’s creditors to agree to a six-month standstill on the conglomerate's debts “until at least” 30 May 2010, while the company is restructured. That’s worrying enough. But what also concerned investors is that the Government of Dubai had also just raised a further $5bn from Abu Dhabi.
Now, according to FT Alphaville, traders had expected this money to be used to repay $3.5bn in bonds issued by Dubai World’s property unit, Nakheel (the company which built the artificial palm tree resort much beloved by footballers). This $3.5bn loan falls due on 14 December. But now it won’t be repaid until at least the end of May.
And just to add the icing on the cake, Dubai has now shut down for Eid, until early December, which could mean further details will be a while in coming.
As RBS analyst Okan Akin told City AM: “The timing could not have been worse.” After all, it’s not as though Nakheel investors have been given a lot of notice here. If you’d been planning on that money being paid back soon, you might be a little annoyed, to say the least - particularly as Dubai has been swearing for months that it would meet its obligations without any problems. The Emirate’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum “publicly pledged his support for the group and its obligations” earlier this month, notes the FT’s Lex column. “Investors, perhaps foolishly, took him at his word.”
Norval Loftus, head of Islamic debt at Matrix Group, tells Bloomberg: “The worst case scenario will of course be involuntary restructuring on the Nakheel security that brings into question the entire nature of sovereign support for various borrowers in the region.”
What’s that mean? As Moody’s put it: “Nakheel… sets a major precedent for a high-profile, seemingly strategic company facing debt repayment difficulties and thus relying on the government for support. A restructuring of its obligations would indicate that the government is prepared to allow a government-related issuer to default on its obligations.” In other words, this case may show that lenders can’t depend on the notion that governments will always make sure that apparently state-backed companies will repay their debts. And that would make an awful lot of other Dubai-backed debt look far riskier than investors have been accounting for.
A valuable warning for the rest of us
What does Dubai mean for the rest of us? Well, it’s a valuable warning that there are nasty little financial time-bombs lurking everywhere across the world. Already we’ve been reminded by credit ratings agencies, that a huge number of the world’s banks remain under-capitalised.
It’s also a very important warning that you can’t trust governments. They’re prone to covering things up for the “greater good” – which is government-speak for “covering our backsides”. Given the role of the state in markets across the world right now, that’s not very reassuring.
We’ve been wondering when investors would get the nasty shock that reminds them that the world is a dangerous place. This could be just the beginning.
Labels:
Economy
26 Nov 09 : Proft Taking Takes Place before long weekend
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 26 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10464.4 +30.69
Nasdaq Composite: 2176.05 +6.87
________________________________________
After a minor correction, Wall Street recovered overnight as investors cheered news that initial jobless claims fell to a 14-month low last week. But it should be noted that volume was one of the lightest in the year, ahead of today’s Thanksgiving Holiday.
New homes sales also picked up pace in October, while consumer spending recovered 0.7 per cent last month after dropping some 0.6 per cent in September. This augurs well for the Black Friday shopping day tomorrow, traditionally seen as the start of the festive shopping period with retailers trying to outdo each other in launching good bargains.
The continued weakening greenback led to some strengthening in crude prices. The EIA also said inventories went up only 1m barrels in the last week, lower than expected while demand also appears to have been higher than projected. Consequently, crude for January delivery closed US$1.94 higher at US$77.97 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The local bourse managed to shrug off its earlier sluggishness and close higher yesterday albeit on low volumes. The STI index rose 12.86 points at 2792.84 points. Market breadth was positive, with 216 gainers and 188 decliners. Turnover was 1.35bil shares with a value of $1.71bil traded.
Volume was boosted by the trading debut of Capitamalls Asia, which opened and ended at $2.30 with 181.6mil traded for a gain over its $2.12 offering. It hit a low of $2.23.
We expect the market to trade within a narrow range today despite Wall Street’s overnight rise. This is due to the long weekend in both Wall Street and our local market, which is closed tomorrow for Hari Raya. As such, investors are likely to remain sidelined and not take up fresh positions given recent volatility in equity markets.’
Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 12 cents at $3.02 while Straits Asia rose 6 cents at $2.29. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted.
Shares that did well today were STX Panocean, DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, and Olam that rose between 8 cents and $1.04.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Haw Par, SIA, and UOI declined between 7 and 88 cents.
==============
Mid Day November 26. STI lower at half-time
US markets had a firm close in a quiet pre-holiday trading session. The Dow Jones Industrials index finished at a 13 month high while the Volatility index neared 20. The low VIX number augured well for risk taking. US dollars weakened further yesterday and made a bull case for resource stocks. `Investors scorn at the weak dollars and prefer an asset of value like gold, properties or equities' dealers said. The STI index fell 14.18 points at 2,778.66 points. For every stock that fell, 0.8 rose. Turnover was 633.2mil shares with a value of $710.2mil traded. The stock market would be closed for the Hari Raya holiday tomorrow which was a reason for the lower than typical turnover.
Yesterday's listing Capitamalls Asia broke through that $2.30 barrier to reach an intra-day high of $2.39 before closing back down to $2.30 at half time. `I think lots of stag sellers were taken out yesterday, leaving behind the long term serious players' a trader reasoned. New listing Q&M Dental group finished at 34.5 cents, above its 27 cents offering. Resources plays were firm with shares of Noble Group, Indo Agric and Olam adding between half and 3 cents.
On the balance, shares of Venture Corp, UOB, Jardine Strategic, Keppel Corp, DBS, City Developments, ARA, Starhub and Yangzijiang eased between 2 and 58 cents.
==================
Market close Nov 26. STI saw profit taking ahead of long weekend
The STI index saw profit taking ahead of the long weekend and closed 30.62 points down at 2,762.22 points. Market breadth was negative, with 158 gainers and 291 decliners. Turnover was 1.1 bil shares with a value of $1.39 bil traded. The stock market would be closed for the Hari Raya holiday tomorrow which was a reason for the lower than typical turnover.
The continued weakening greenback also made a bullish case for resource stocks or other assets such as gold or properties.
Yesterday's new debutante, Capitamalls Asia broke through the $2.30 barrier and hit a high of $2.39 before it finished unchanged at $2.30 on 73mil shares. `I think a lot of stag sellers were taken out yesterday, leaving behind the long term serious players' a trader reasoned.
New listing Q&M Dental group finished at 31.5 cents on 59mil, above its 27 cents offering. Other busy issues were Golden Agri, closing on par at 50 cents on 68mil and Achieva, closing unchanged at 10.5 cents on 27mil.
On the b a lance, shares of STX Panocean, Jardine C&C, Jardine Strategic, Keppel Corp, UOB and DBS eased between 28 and 94 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10464.4 +30.69
Nasdaq Composite: 2176.05 +6.87
________________________________________
After a minor correction, Wall Street recovered overnight as investors cheered news that initial jobless claims fell to a 14-month low last week. But it should be noted that volume was one of the lightest in the year, ahead of today’s Thanksgiving Holiday.
New homes sales also picked up pace in October, while consumer spending recovered 0.7 per cent last month after dropping some 0.6 per cent in September. This augurs well for the Black Friday shopping day tomorrow, traditionally seen as the start of the festive shopping period with retailers trying to outdo each other in launching good bargains.
The continued weakening greenback led to some strengthening in crude prices. The EIA also said inventories went up only 1m barrels in the last week, lower than expected while demand also appears to have been higher than projected. Consequently, crude for January delivery closed US$1.94 higher at US$77.97 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The local bourse managed to shrug off its earlier sluggishness and close higher yesterday albeit on low volumes. The STI index rose 12.86 points at 2792.84 points. Market breadth was positive, with 216 gainers and 188 decliners. Turnover was 1.35bil shares with a value of $1.71bil traded.
Volume was boosted by the trading debut of Capitamalls Asia, which opened and ended at $2.30 with 181.6mil traded for a gain over its $2.12 offering. It hit a low of $2.23.
We expect the market to trade within a narrow range today despite Wall Street’s overnight rise. This is due to the long weekend in both Wall Street and our local market, which is closed tomorrow for Hari Raya. As such, investors are likely to remain sidelined and not take up fresh positions given recent volatility in equity markets.’
Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 12 cents at $3.02 while Straits Asia rose 6 cents at $2.29. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted.
Shares that did well today were STX Panocean, DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, and Olam that rose between 8 cents and $1.04.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Haw Par, SIA, and UOI declined between 7 and 88 cents.
==============
Mid Day November 26. STI lower at half-time
US markets had a firm close in a quiet pre-holiday trading session. The Dow Jones Industrials index finished at a 13 month high while the Volatility index neared 20. The low VIX number augured well for risk taking. US dollars weakened further yesterday and made a bull case for resource stocks. `Investors scorn at the weak dollars and prefer an asset of value like gold, properties or equities' dealers said. The STI index fell 14.18 points at 2,778.66 points. For every stock that fell, 0.8 rose. Turnover was 633.2mil shares with a value of $710.2mil traded. The stock market would be closed for the Hari Raya holiday tomorrow which was a reason for the lower than typical turnover.
Yesterday's listing Capitamalls Asia broke through that $2.30 barrier to reach an intra-day high of $2.39 before closing back down to $2.30 at half time. `I think lots of stag sellers were taken out yesterday, leaving behind the long term serious players' a trader reasoned. New listing Q&M Dental group finished at 34.5 cents, above its 27 cents offering. Resources plays were firm with shares of Noble Group, Indo Agric and Olam adding between half and 3 cents.
On the balance, shares of Venture Corp, UOB, Jardine Strategic, Keppel Corp, DBS, City Developments, ARA, Starhub and Yangzijiang eased between 2 and 58 cents.
==================
Market close Nov 26. STI saw profit taking ahead of long weekend
The STI index saw profit taking ahead of the long weekend and closed 30.62 points down at 2,762.22 points. Market breadth was negative, with 158 gainers and 291 decliners. Turnover was 1.1 bil shares with a value of $1.39 bil traded. The stock market would be closed for the Hari Raya holiday tomorrow which was a reason for the lower than typical turnover.
The continued weakening greenback also made a bullish case for resource stocks or other assets such as gold or properties.
Yesterday's new debutante, Capitamalls Asia broke through the $2.30 barrier and hit a high of $2.39 before it finished unchanged at $2.30 on 73mil shares. `I think a lot of stag sellers were taken out yesterday, leaving behind the long term serious players' a trader reasoned.
New listing Q&M Dental group finished at 31.5 cents on 59mil, above its 27 cents offering. Other busy issues were Golden Agri, closing on par at 50 cents on 68mil and Achieva, closing unchanged at 10.5 cents on 27mil.
On the b a lance, shares of STX Panocean, Jardine C&C, Jardine Strategic, Keppel Corp, UOB and DBS eased between 28 and 94 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
What is the Dollar Index
The Dollar Index (DXY) is usually considered a trading equivalent of the spot currencies on which it is based. But despite its firmly speculative nature, the index has been no more volatile than its currency components over the past year and in specific cases it has been considerably less so.
The DXY is composed of a basket of five currencies, Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, Sterling 11.9%, Canadian Dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, and Swiss Franc 3.6%. The index, whose futures trade on the Intercontinental Exchange, was originally created in 1973 by JP Morgan. It components have only been rebalanced once for the inception of the Euro.
Indices are private trading vehicles designed to reflect market interest and to be instruments that traders find useful for speculation. They are designed solely to attract trading enthusiasm; they are not necessarily intended to accurately reflect the economic or financial realities of the currency or its country.
The DXY does not mirror the United States trade position in the global economy. It is heavily weighted to Europe, undervalues the Canadian Dollar, ignores South Korea Taiwan and by necessity China. A firm cannot settle a trade flow in the DXY nor is it particularly useful as a hedge because of the specific matrix of its components. But because of these non-economic aspects, an index may conceivably reflect speculative currency opinion more accurately than the underlying currencies. Indices are not directly buffeted by trade flows, subject to investment and capital controls, banking regulation and other rules and regulation impinging on currency speculation except as they affect the constituent components of the index. The speculative urge should dominate the index.
For these reasons the DXY and other instruments like it are thought to reflect overall speculative dollar sentiment without the complicating factors of economics and finance. As example if dollar sentiment is negative then it could be more negative in an index because the makeup of open positioning will only be between the overall positive and negative market sentiment for the currency. From a trader's point of view, the more an index reflects speculative intent the more volatility it is likely to contain and the more it will move. Movement equals profit, or at least potential profits.
Over the past year dollar sentiment has boomed during the acute crisis phase of the financial crisis, from September to early March for most currencies, and then beat a long retreat as the fear of world economic collapse has ebbed. Is this movement reflected in the volatility of the DXY and does it compare to the shifts in its major components?
During the Dollar positive phase of the crisis, the DXY gained 18% (9/22/08-3/4/09). In the same time frame the US Dollar added 16% versus the Euro (9/22/08 to 3/4/09 and 22% from the 7/15/08 low), 26% against the Sterling (9/18/08 to 1/23/09), 8% against the Swiss Franc (9/22/08-3/12/09), and 27% versus the Canadian Dollar. The American Dollar lost 0.5% % against the Yen from September to early April but gained 16% from its December low to its April 4th high.
The Yen is the exception to the general improvement in the Dollar in this period because its valuation was driven by the precipitous fall in the Yen crosses. The Yen crosses had to reach their nadir which the Euro/Yen did on January 21st before the Dollar could begin to trade higher on its own against the Japanese currency.
Since the index reached its crisis high on March 4th of this year it has lost 16% to Friday's close. In that same period and from its March high the Dollar lost 19% against the Euro, 23% against the Sterling (from 3/11), 12% versus the Yen, 15% against the Swiss Franc and 19% against the Canadian. The Dollar lost more against each component currency except the Yen and the Swiss that it did in the DXY. From a speculative trading perspective, as least during the Dollar retreat, the components were the place to be.
The peculiar conditions of the financial crisis may have played a large part in this unusual volatility in the real rather than the created currency. The salient fact in the first phase of the crisis was the pursuit of safety by any means. The currency flows during this period were a flood into dollar assets and then in the work out phase an even greater flood out. It seems that when these flows were added to the normal speculative positioning in the currencies they added substantially to the volatility in the real rather than the DXY.
The trading advantage of the currencies over the Dollar Index was most pronounced in the Dollar retreat. Once the reasons for the Dollar ascent in the acute phase of the crisis became clear, and it also became evident that the government rescues would succeed, large speculative interest joined the simple reversal of the pro-Dollar risk aversion trade. These speculative positions were all against the Dollar. Once traders had a chance to assay the situation it became obvious that the abnormal piling into Dollar assets would reverse and the market would join in the rout.
In currency trading the advantage for potential profitability between a derivative and its underlying generally lies with the underlying instrument. For the Dollar Index it is no different. Even during the immense dislocation of the financial crisis the greatest potential for profit was in the spot currencies themselves.
The DXY is composed of a basket of five currencies, Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, Sterling 11.9%, Canadian Dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, and Swiss Franc 3.6%. The index, whose futures trade on the Intercontinental Exchange, was originally created in 1973 by JP Morgan. It components have only been rebalanced once for the inception of the Euro.
Indices are private trading vehicles designed to reflect market interest and to be instruments that traders find useful for speculation. They are designed solely to attract trading enthusiasm; they are not necessarily intended to accurately reflect the economic or financial realities of the currency or its country.
The DXY does not mirror the United States trade position in the global economy. It is heavily weighted to Europe, undervalues the Canadian Dollar, ignores South Korea Taiwan and by necessity China. A firm cannot settle a trade flow in the DXY nor is it particularly useful as a hedge because of the specific matrix of its components. But because of these non-economic aspects, an index may conceivably reflect speculative currency opinion more accurately than the underlying currencies. Indices are not directly buffeted by trade flows, subject to investment and capital controls, banking regulation and other rules and regulation impinging on currency speculation except as they affect the constituent components of the index. The speculative urge should dominate the index.
For these reasons the DXY and other instruments like it are thought to reflect overall speculative dollar sentiment without the complicating factors of economics and finance. As example if dollar sentiment is negative then it could be more negative in an index because the makeup of open positioning will only be between the overall positive and negative market sentiment for the currency. From a trader's point of view, the more an index reflects speculative intent the more volatility it is likely to contain and the more it will move. Movement equals profit, or at least potential profits.
Over the past year dollar sentiment has boomed during the acute crisis phase of the financial crisis, from September to early March for most currencies, and then beat a long retreat as the fear of world economic collapse has ebbed. Is this movement reflected in the volatility of the DXY and does it compare to the shifts in its major components?
During the Dollar positive phase of the crisis, the DXY gained 18% (9/22/08-3/4/09). In the same time frame the US Dollar added 16% versus the Euro (9/22/08 to 3/4/09 and 22% from the 7/15/08 low), 26% against the Sterling (9/18/08 to 1/23/09), 8% against the Swiss Franc (9/22/08-3/12/09), and 27% versus the Canadian Dollar. The American Dollar lost 0.5% % against the Yen from September to early April but gained 16% from its December low to its April 4th high.
The Yen is the exception to the general improvement in the Dollar in this period because its valuation was driven by the precipitous fall in the Yen crosses. The Yen crosses had to reach their nadir which the Euro/Yen did on January 21st before the Dollar could begin to trade higher on its own against the Japanese currency.
Since the index reached its crisis high on March 4th of this year it has lost 16% to Friday's close. In that same period and from its March high the Dollar lost 19% against the Euro, 23% against the Sterling (from 3/11), 12% versus the Yen, 15% against the Swiss Franc and 19% against the Canadian. The Dollar lost more against each component currency except the Yen and the Swiss that it did in the DXY. From a speculative trading perspective, as least during the Dollar retreat, the components were the place to be.
The peculiar conditions of the financial crisis may have played a large part in this unusual volatility in the real rather than the created currency. The salient fact in the first phase of the crisis was the pursuit of safety by any means. The currency flows during this period were a flood into dollar assets and then in the work out phase an even greater flood out. It seems that when these flows were added to the normal speculative positioning in the currencies they added substantially to the volatility in the real rather than the DXY.
The trading advantage of the currencies over the Dollar Index was most pronounced in the Dollar retreat. Once the reasons for the Dollar ascent in the acute phase of the crisis became clear, and it also became evident that the government rescues would succeed, large speculative interest joined the simple reversal of the pro-Dollar risk aversion trade. These speculative positions were all against the Dollar. Once traders had a chance to assay the situation it became obvious that the abnormal piling into Dollar assets would reverse and the market would join in the rout.
In currency trading the advantage for potential profitability between a derivative and its underlying generally lies with the underlying instrument. For the Dollar Index it is no different. Even during the immense dislocation of the financial crisis the greatest potential for profit was in the spot currencies themselves.
Labels:
FX Trading
25 Nov 09 : Got 1 lot of CapitalMall Asia
Was allocated 1 lot (1000 shares) of CapitalMall Asia :)
=============================================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 25 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10433.71 -17.24
Nasdaq Composite: 2169.18 -6.83
________________________________________
Wall Street continued to see profit taking on news that the 3Q GDP numbers were likely not as strong as earlier thought. The Commerce Department said the estimate of 3Q GDP has been lowered from 3.5% to 2.8%, though this is still the strongest quarterly growth in two years.
In another development, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) said the number of distressed US banks jumped to a 16-year high in the third quarter. The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund also fell to a loss of US$8.2 bn in the 3Q, making it imperative to tap its contingency fund. The FOMC, in its latest meeting minutes, also said it expects the jobless rate will remain high through 2011.
Wall Street will likely see another uncertain day today ahead of its Thanksgiving break tomorrow. The holiday shortened trading week will see a long weekend with just half a day of trading scheduled for Friday.
Crude futures also fell a little in line with the continued sober economic outlook. There was also some expectation that the latest inventory numbers to come will likely show an increase. Crude for January delivery fell US$1.54 to US$76.02 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Asian markets yesterday could not capitalise on Wall Street’s overnight rise, dipping instead throughout the day due to a lack of positive fresh factors as well as the negative trading of US futures. Traders appeared resigned to the volatility and warned of more in the days ahead during the holiday shortened trading week. Singapore will have a public holiday on Friday for Hari Raya.
The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 17.90 points at 2779.98 points. Market breadth was negative, with 179 gainers and 300 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.49bil traded.
The main highlight for today will be the trading debut of CapitaMalls Asia, which had a near 5 times subscription for its public tranche. The group raised some $2.8 bn in the offer. The shares were offered at $2.12 each, and is expected to make a healthy debut today though it remains to be seen if the price can sustain above offer price in the days ahead given the overwhelming size of the issue and the likely high number of subscribers looking for a quick turnaround.
=====================
Mid day November 25. Asian markets locked in a moribund range
It was a weak US sessio n with its key indices closing between 0.05 and 0.3 per cent lower. US stocks managed to end off the lows of their session ; albeit on low volumes, after the US Federal Reserve raised its 2010 forecast. Asian markets were largely locked in a moribund range amidst low volumes. The STI index rose 2.84 points at 2782.82 points, giving back much of its earlier advance on profit taking. For every stock that rose, 1.3 fell. Turnover was 650mil shares with a value of $868mil traded.
Capitamalls Asia made its debut today, opening at $2.30 but closing the mid day at $2.24 on 106mil shares. This represented a premium of about 6 per cent over its $2.12 offering. Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 9 cents at $2.99 while Straits Asia rose 3 cents at $2.26. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted. Shares that did well today were DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, Hyflux, SembCorp amd City Developments that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SIA, SGX, Great Eastern and Starhub that eased between 2 and 54 cents.
===========
Market close Nov 25. Trading remains sluggish though STI closes higher
The local bourse managed to shrug off its earlier sluggishness and close higher albeit on low volumes. The STI index rose 12.86 points at 2792.84 points. Market breadth was positive, with 216 gainers and 188 decliners. Turnover was 1.35bil shares with a value of $1.71bil traded.
Capitamalls Asia made its debut today, opening and ending at $2.30 with 181.6mil traded for a gain over its $2.12 offering. It hit a low of $2.23.
Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 12 cents at $3.02 while Straits Asia rose 6 cents at $2.29. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted.
Shares that did well today were STX Panocean, DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, and Olam that rose between 8 cents and $1.04.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Haw Par, SIA, and UOI declined between 7 and 88 cents.
=============================================
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 25 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10433.71 -17.24
Nasdaq Composite: 2169.18 -6.83
________________________________________
Wall Street continued to see profit taking on news that the 3Q GDP numbers were likely not as strong as earlier thought. The Commerce Department said the estimate of 3Q GDP has been lowered from 3.5% to 2.8%, though this is still the strongest quarterly growth in two years.
In another development, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) said the number of distressed US banks jumped to a 16-year high in the third quarter. The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund also fell to a loss of US$8.2 bn in the 3Q, making it imperative to tap its contingency fund. The FOMC, in its latest meeting minutes, also said it expects the jobless rate will remain high through 2011.
Wall Street will likely see another uncertain day today ahead of its Thanksgiving break tomorrow. The holiday shortened trading week will see a long weekend with just half a day of trading scheduled for Friday.
Crude futures also fell a little in line with the continued sober economic outlook. There was also some expectation that the latest inventory numbers to come will likely show an increase. Crude for January delivery fell US$1.54 to US$76.02 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Asian markets yesterday could not capitalise on Wall Street’s overnight rise, dipping instead throughout the day due to a lack of positive fresh factors as well as the negative trading of US futures. Traders appeared resigned to the volatility and warned of more in the days ahead during the holiday shortened trading week. Singapore will have a public holiday on Friday for Hari Raya.
The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 17.90 points at 2779.98 points. Market breadth was negative, with 179 gainers and 300 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.49bil traded.
The main highlight for today will be the trading debut of CapitaMalls Asia, which had a near 5 times subscription for its public tranche. The group raised some $2.8 bn in the offer. The shares were offered at $2.12 each, and is expected to make a healthy debut today though it remains to be seen if the price can sustain above offer price in the days ahead given the overwhelming size of the issue and the likely high number of subscribers looking for a quick turnaround.
=====================
Mid day November 25. Asian markets locked in a moribund range
It was a weak US sessio n with its key indices closing between 0.05 and 0.3 per cent lower. US stocks managed to end off the lows of their session ; albeit on low volumes, after the US Federal Reserve raised its 2010 forecast. Asian markets were largely locked in a moribund range amidst low volumes. The STI index rose 2.84 points at 2782.82 points, giving back much of its earlier advance on profit taking. For every stock that rose, 1.3 fell. Turnover was 650mil shares with a value of $868mil traded.
Capitamalls Asia made its debut today, opening at $2.30 but closing the mid day at $2.24 on 106mil shares. This represented a premium of about 6 per cent over its $2.12 offering. Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 9 cents at $2.99 while Straits Asia rose 3 cents at $2.26. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted. Shares that did well today were DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, Hyflux, SembCorp amd City Developments that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SIA, SGX, Great Eastern and Starhub that eased between 2 and 54 cents.
===========
Market close Nov 25. Trading remains sluggish though STI closes higher
The local bourse managed to shrug off its earlier sluggishness and close higher albeit on low volumes. The STI index rose 12.86 points at 2792.84 points. Market breadth was positive, with 216 gainers and 188 decliners. Turnover was 1.35bil shares with a value of $1.71bil traded.
Capitamalls Asia made its debut today, opening and ending at $2.30 with 181.6mil traded for a gain over its $2.12 offering. It hit a low of $2.23.
Resources stocks were in demand with Noble Group rising 12 cents at $3.02 while Straits Asia rose 6 cents at $2.29. `This follows a global trend where investors were piling into resource companies given the weaker US dollars' a dealer noted.
Shares that did well today were STX Panocean, DBS, Jardine C&C, Ezra, and Olam that rose between 8 cents and $1.04.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Haw Par, SIA, and UOI declined between 7 and 88 cents.
Labels:
CapitalMall Asia,
IPO
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
24 Nov 09 : Market Update
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 24 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10450.95 +132.79
Nasdaq Composite: 2176.01 +29.97
________________________________________
As was predicted by the earlier US futures market, stocks on Wall Street rose again to new year highs overnight after data showed firm existing home sales and some comments from a Federal Reserve member alluded to a likely continued low interest rate environment. The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes jumped 10.1 per cent in October, the highest level in more than two-and-a-half years. The news, however, served to depress the greenback against other international currencies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3 per cent to a new 2009 high. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite were both also up 1.4 per cent amidst the strengthening sentiment.
Crude prices rose on news that demand from China could have risen 10 per cent yoy last month. Crude for January delivery edged up US9 cents to US$77.56 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Apparently liquidity is still quite flush in the market and traders are now hoping for a positive year end scenario despite earlier expectations that it the rally could not sustain and should slow down to a quiet close. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said.
The STI index rose 36.34 points at 2,797.88 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Expect the regional bourses to get a lift this morning from Wall Street’s bullish close. Some could seize the opportunity to take profit on earlier holdings while investors sidelined could be tempted to take new positions but we think buying would need to be selective towards issues with strong fundamentals.
Situational issues hogged the actives list yesterday. Shares of YingLi rose 2.5 cents at 65.5 cents on 99mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 6 cents at $4.15 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout.
A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 17 cents higher at $3.85.
New listing Sino Grandness closed at 44 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 cents offering.
==========
Mid day November 24. Asian markets edged lower despite positive lead from Wall Street
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets edged lower, giving up the gains they had from the open bell. `It's still a trading environment and there has been no let up in volatility' a dealer said. Its an abbreviated week of trading for Singapore as we take Friday off to celebrate Hari Raya while the US market will close Thursday for Thanksgiving( US market will trade half day on Friday). The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 1.49 points at 2796.39 points. Market breadth was flat at best with the majority of issues unchanged. Turnover was light on 693mil shares with a value of $718mil traded.
A rally yesterday failed to extend itself and made for a opportune sell for short term traders. `These days, traders just go for that one or two bid trades. If you are wrong, just cut' a dealer said. After yesterday's strong perfromance, Sino Grandness shed 4 cents at 40 cents while Yingli lost 1.5 cent at 64 cents. Other stocks that fell included STX PanOcean, UOB, City Developments, SIA, DBS, Great Eastern, Ezra, SATs Services, Mermaid Marine and Olam that eased between 2 and 44 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, Kim Eng, IndoAgric, IFS and Vicom that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
==========
Market close Nov 24. STI fails to hold on to the 2,800 level
Asian markets could not capit alise on Wall Street’s overnight rise, dipping instead throughout the day due to a lack of positive fresh factors as well as the negative trading of US futures. Traders appeared resigned to the volatility and warned of more in the days ahead during the holiday shortened trading week. Singapore will have a public holiday on Friday for Hari Raya while the US market will close Thursday for Thanksgiving and also trade only for half a day on Friday.
The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 17.90 points at 2779.98 points. Market breadth was negative, with 179 gainers and 300 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.49bil traded.
After yesterday's strong performance, Sino Grandness shed 3.5 cents at 40.5 cents while Yingli lost 2 cent at 63.5 cents. Other stocks that fell included STX PanOcean, DBS, City Development, UOB, OCBC and SIA, that eased between 16 and 42 cents.
On balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Mathe s on, JSH, Kep Corp and OUE, rose between 10 and 68 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10450.95 +132.79
Nasdaq Composite: 2176.01 +29.97
________________________________________
As was predicted by the earlier US futures market, stocks on Wall Street rose again to new year highs overnight after data showed firm existing home sales and some comments from a Federal Reserve member alluded to a likely continued low interest rate environment. The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes jumped 10.1 per cent in October, the highest level in more than two-and-a-half years. The news, however, served to depress the greenback against other international currencies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3 per cent to a new 2009 high. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite were both also up 1.4 per cent amidst the strengthening sentiment.
Crude prices rose on news that demand from China could have risen 10 per cent yoy last month. Crude for January delivery edged up US9 cents to US$77.56 per barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Apparently liquidity is still quite flush in the market and traders are now hoping for a positive year end scenario despite earlier expectations that it the rally could not sustain and should slow down to a quiet close. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said.
The STI index rose 36.34 points at 2,797.88 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Expect the regional bourses to get a lift this morning from Wall Street’s bullish close. Some could seize the opportunity to take profit on earlier holdings while investors sidelined could be tempted to take new positions but we think buying would need to be selective towards issues with strong fundamentals.
Situational issues hogged the actives list yesterday. Shares of YingLi rose 2.5 cents at 65.5 cents on 99mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 6 cents at $4.15 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout.
A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 17 cents higher at $3.85.
New listing Sino Grandness closed at 44 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 cents offering.
==========
Mid day November 24. Asian markets edged lower despite positive lead from Wall Street
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets edged lower, giving up the gains they had from the open bell. `It's still a trading environment and there has been no let up in volatility' a dealer said. Its an abbreviated week of trading for Singapore as we take Friday off to celebrate Hari Raya while the US market will close Thursday for Thanksgiving( US market will trade half day on Friday). The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 1.49 points at 2796.39 points. Market breadth was flat at best with the majority of issues unchanged. Turnover was light on 693mil shares with a value of $718mil traded.
A rally yesterday failed to extend itself and made for a opportune sell for short term traders. `These days, traders just go for that one or two bid trades. If you are wrong, just cut' a dealer said. After yesterday's strong perfromance, Sino Grandness shed 4 cents at 40 cents while Yingli lost 1.5 cent at 64 cents. Other stocks that fell included STX PanOcean, UOB, City Developments, SIA, DBS, Great Eastern, Ezra, SATs Services, Mermaid Marine and Olam that eased between 2 and 44 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Matheson, Kim Eng, IndoAgric, IFS and Vicom that rose between 2 and 26 cents.
==========
Market close Nov 24. STI fails to hold on to the 2,800 level
Asian markets could not capit alise on Wall Street’s overnight rise, dipping instead throughout the day due to a lack of positive fresh factors as well as the negative trading of US futures. Traders appeared resigned to the volatility and warned of more in the days ahead during the holiday shortened trading week. Singapore will have a public holiday on Friday for Hari Raya while the US market will close Thursday for Thanksgiving and also trade only for half a day on Friday.
The STI index failed to cling unto its 2800 level to ease 17.90 points at 2779.98 points. Market breadth was negative, with 179 gainers and 300 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.4bil shares with a value of $1.49bil traded.
After yesterday's strong performance, Sino Grandness shed 3.5 cents at 40.5 cents while Yingli lost 2 cent at 63.5 cents. Other stocks that fell included STX PanOcean, DBS, City Development, UOB, OCBC and SIA, that eased between 16 and 42 cents.
On balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Jardine Mathe s on, JSH, Kep Corp and OUE, rose between 10 and 68 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Monday, November 23, 2009
23 Nov 09 : Market Rally
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 23 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10318.16 -14.28
Nasdaq Composite: 2146.04 -10.78
________________________________________
Wall Street closed the week on a negative note but still managed to close off the day’s lows. Part of the fall was due to weaker than expected earnings from Dell.
For the week, the major indices were mainly flat as investors saw little movement either way ahead of the year end festive period with volumes likely to continue dwindling in the coming weeks. The Dow Jones Industrials was up just 0.5 per cent given enthusiasm earlier in the week over possible economic recovery data. The S&P 500 Index dipped just 0.2 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite saw the most significant movement, falling 1 per cent for the week.
With the greenback strengthening a little towards the close of the week, crude futures saw some profit taking. Crude for December delivery closed US74 cents lower on Friday at US$76.72 per barrel. For the week, it was up US37 cents.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Singapore shares closed flat on Friday given the absence of fresh factors and continued concerns over the direction of Wall Street. Investors were concerned a stronger correction could be on the cards. For the week, the STI index was up 34.3points or 1.3 per cent at 2,761.54 points. But market breadth has been turning negative with gains skewed to the index components.
Given that sentiment over the sustainability of the market rally has turned cautious, buyers have also chosen to remain sidelined as volumes continue to dwindle.
-----------
NRA Mid Day November 23. STI rose, helped by firm US index futures.
Traders continue to favour a year end melt up scenario simply because of the supportive liquidity and the vastly improved sentiments. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said. The STI index rose 13.00 points at 2774.54 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged.
Turnover was 689mil shares with a value of $615mil traded.
Market turnover was low as expected but players stayed with situational issues that hogged the actives list. Shares of YingLi rose 2 cents at 65 cents on 79mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 3 cents at $4.12 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout. A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 8 cents higher at $3.76. New listing Sino Grandness closed at 43 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 cents offering. Also higher were shares of Jardine Matheson, F&N, DBS, Kep Corp, Singapore Land, TPV and Keppel Land that rose between 3 and 62 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, UOB, Great Eastern, Kim Eng, Wilmar, Wing Tai, City Developments and Food Junction eased between 1 and 18 cents.
=================
Market close Nov 23. Positive US futures market helps firm STI
Traders continue to favour a positive year end scenario simply because of the supportive liquidity and the vastly improved sentiments. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said. The STI index rose 36.34 points at 2,797.88 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Market turnover was low as expected but players stayed with situational issues that hogged the actives list. Shares of YingLi rose 2.5 cents at 65.5 cents on 99mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 6 cents at $4.15 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout.
A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 17 cents higher at $3.85.
New listing Sino Grandness closed at 44 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 centsmoffering. Also higher were shares of UOB, DBS, Jardine Matheson, Kep Corp and Singapore Land that rose between 11 and 34 cents.
On the balance, shares of OUE, Great Eastern and Wilmar eased between 3 and 20 cents.
==========
________________________________________
DJIA: 10318.16 -14.28
Nasdaq Composite: 2146.04 -10.78
________________________________________
Wall Street closed the week on a negative note but still managed to close off the day’s lows. Part of the fall was due to weaker than expected earnings from Dell.
For the week, the major indices were mainly flat as investors saw little movement either way ahead of the year end festive period with volumes likely to continue dwindling in the coming weeks. The Dow Jones Industrials was up just 0.5 per cent given enthusiasm earlier in the week over possible economic recovery data. The S&P 500 Index dipped just 0.2 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite saw the most significant movement, falling 1 per cent for the week.
With the greenback strengthening a little towards the close of the week, crude futures saw some profit taking. Crude for December delivery closed US74 cents lower on Friday at US$76.72 per barrel. For the week, it was up US37 cents.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Singapore shares closed flat on Friday given the absence of fresh factors and continued concerns over the direction of Wall Street. Investors were concerned a stronger correction could be on the cards. For the week, the STI index was up 34.3points or 1.3 per cent at 2,761.54 points. But market breadth has been turning negative with gains skewed to the index components.
Given that sentiment over the sustainability of the market rally has turned cautious, buyers have also chosen to remain sidelined as volumes continue to dwindle.
-----------
NRA Mid Day November 23. STI rose, helped by firm US index futures.
Traders continue to favour a year end melt up scenario simply because of the supportive liquidity and the vastly improved sentiments. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said. The STI index rose 13.00 points at 2774.54 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged.
Turnover was 689mil shares with a value of $615mil traded.
Market turnover was low as expected but players stayed with situational issues that hogged the actives list. Shares of YingLi rose 2 cents at 65 cents on 79mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 3 cents at $4.12 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout. A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 8 cents higher at $3.76. New listing Sino Grandness closed at 43 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 cents offering. Also higher were shares of Jardine Matheson, F&N, DBS, Kep Corp, Singapore Land, TPV and Keppel Land that rose between 3 and 62 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, UOB, Great Eastern, Kim Eng, Wilmar, Wing Tai, City Developments and Food Junction eased between 1 and 18 cents.
=================
Market close Nov 23. Positive US futures market helps firm STI
Traders continue to favour a positive year end scenario simply because of the supportive liquidity and the vastly improved sentiments. `Sure there will be speed bumps along the way but I think the STI index will challenge the 3000 level in the first quarter next year, so we need to buy the dips' a dealer said. The STI index rose 36.34 points at 2,797.88 points helped by the firm US index futures. Market breadth was modestly positive while the broader market was mostly unchanged. Turnover was 1.3bil shares with a value of $1.3bil traded.
Market turnover was low as expected but players stayed with situational issues that hogged the actives list. Shares of YingLi rose 2.5 cents at 65.5 cents on 99mil shares though there was no fresh news from the company. A dealer attributed the rise to the closure of `forced selling last Friday' while another added that the share placement had gone to some large institutional names that may be `buying in the market'.
CapitaLand rose 6 cents at $4.15 on the `feel good' ahead of the 25th November listing date of its CapMall Asia unit. Investors believe CapitaLand may reward shareholders with a good dividend payout.
A new contract to supply power and water to Oman Power and Water procurement company sent shares of Sembcorp Industries 17 cents higher at $3.85.
New listing Sino Grandness closed at 44 cents, a remarkable 48 per cent premium over its 29 centsmoffering. Also higher were shares of UOB, DBS, Jardine Matheson, Kep Corp and Singapore Land that rose between 11 and 34 cents.
On the balance, shares of OUE, Great Eastern and Wilmar eased between 3 and 20 cents.
==========
Labels:
Market Update
Friday, November 20, 2009
20 Nov 09 : Peace Before Weekend
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 20 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10332.44 -93.87
Nasdaq Composite: : 2156.82 -36.32
________________________________________
The US market tumbled on Thursday for the second day in a row as the greenback strengthened and concerns about the economic recovery resurfaced. A downgrade on the semiconductor industry after two key software companies issued cautious profit outlook as well as worse-than-expected third-quarter reports by Dell also dragged down technology shares.
On the economic front, first-time jobless claims were largely unchanged from the preceding week at 505,000 and close to expectations of 504,000 claims. A separate report on leading economic indicators showed an increase of 0.3% in October, below forecast of a 0.4% rise, from a 1% rise in September.
The major indices retreated further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.90% while S&P 500 lost 1.34% to end at 1094.90. Nasdaq composite led the decline, falling 1.66%.
US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$2.12 to settle at US$77.46 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets traded within a narrow range with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach as the greenback stabilized against the regional currencies. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, Hang Seng Index fell by 0.86% while Nikkei 225 declined 1.32%.
The Singapore bourse enjoyed a boost from a government survey showing that the economy grew 0.6% in the third quarter as well as the new official economic growth forecast of 3-5% for 2010. However, institutional buying on heavyweights was not strong enough to offset the effects of the stronger US dollar that accompanies a weakening of equities. Traders said the firmer dollar probably spurred some carry trades unwinding. The STI index closed 13.75 points up at 2758.79 points. Market breadth deteriorated through the day and finished with 1.3 declines to every stock that rose. Turnover was light on 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.25il traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so. Jardine Matheson led the rebound, adding 30 cents at $30.80 and was tracked by UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 1 and 28 cents. Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending an announcement. Dealers said there may be a potential merger and acquisition deal.
======
Mid day November 20. STI in tight range trading
Asian markets retreated and extended yes terday's losses following Wall Street's broad decline. A stronger US dollar boosted talks of the carry trade unwind in the midst of a widely expected equities correction. The STI index traded in a tight range but gained 7.58 points at 2766.37 points. Market breadth was still negative as gains were skewed to the index components . Turnover was 645mil shares with a value of $632mil traded.
Stocks fell not because investors feared the economic recovery was losing momentum but simply the rally was. The approaching seasonal holidays and some overbought charts was keeping buyers at the sidelines. `Short of a stock market disaster, I don't expect serious investors to be in a hurry to buy' a dealer pointed out. STX Panocean fell the most, erasing 44 cents at $14.72 and was tracked by SIA, OKP, Haw Par, Venture Corp, City Developments, Wilmar, SGX, Hong Kong Land and Great Eastern that fell between 2 and 27.5 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, SembCorp, Semb Marine, DBS, Keppel Corp, HsuFuchi and Jardine C&C rose between 1 and 24 cents.
====
Market close Nov 20. Singapore shares close flat on last trading day of the week
Singapore shares were mainly flatlined today following Wall Street's broad decline overnight. Investors were concerned a stronger correction could be on the cards. The STI index traded in a tight range but gained 2.75 points at 2,761.54 points. Market breadth was still negative as gains were skewed to the index components. Turnover was 1.15bil shares with a value of $1.16bil traded.
Stocks fell not because investors feared the economic recovery was losing momentum but simply because the rally was. The approaching seasonal holidays and some overbought charts also kept buyers the sidelined.
Busy issues for the last trading day of the week were Genting, up 1 cent to $1.09 on 77mil, palm oil play Golden Agri, down half a cent to 47 cents on 58mil and Compact, cloing unchanged at 1 cent on 46mil. STX Panocean fell the most, erasing 34 cents at $14.38 and was tracked by SIA, OKP, Haw Par, and Venture Corp, that fell between 13 and 22 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, DBS, HL Asia and Sp Land rose between 10 and 36 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10332.44 -93.87
Nasdaq Composite: : 2156.82 -36.32
________________________________________
The US market tumbled on Thursday for the second day in a row as the greenback strengthened and concerns about the economic recovery resurfaced. A downgrade on the semiconductor industry after two key software companies issued cautious profit outlook as well as worse-than-expected third-quarter reports by Dell also dragged down technology shares.
On the economic front, first-time jobless claims were largely unchanged from the preceding week at 505,000 and close to expectations of 504,000 claims. A separate report on leading economic indicators showed an increase of 0.3% in October, below forecast of a 0.4% rise, from a 1% rise in September.
The major indices retreated further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.90% while S&P 500 lost 1.34% to end at 1094.90. Nasdaq composite led the decline, falling 1.66%.
US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$2.12 to settle at US$77.46 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets traded within a narrow range with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach as the greenback stabilized against the regional currencies. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, Hang Seng Index fell by 0.86% while Nikkei 225 declined 1.32%.
The Singapore bourse enjoyed a boost from a government survey showing that the economy grew 0.6% in the third quarter as well as the new official economic growth forecast of 3-5% for 2010. However, institutional buying on heavyweights was not strong enough to offset the effects of the stronger US dollar that accompanies a weakening of equities. Traders said the firmer dollar probably spurred some carry trades unwinding. The STI index closed 13.75 points up at 2758.79 points. Market breadth deteriorated through the day and finished with 1.3 declines to every stock that rose. Turnover was light on 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.25il traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so. Jardine Matheson led the rebound, adding 30 cents at $30.80 and was tracked by UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 1 and 28 cents. Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending an announcement. Dealers said there may be a potential merger and acquisition deal.
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Mid day November 20. STI in tight range trading
Asian markets retreated and extended yes terday's losses following Wall Street's broad decline. A stronger US dollar boosted talks of the carry trade unwind in the midst of a widely expected equities correction. The STI index traded in a tight range but gained 7.58 points at 2766.37 points. Market breadth was still negative as gains were skewed to the index components . Turnover was 645mil shares with a value of $632mil traded.
Stocks fell not because investors feared the economic recovery was losing momentum but simply the rally was. The approaching seasonal holidays and some overbought charts was keeping buyers at the sidelines. `Short of a stock market disaster, I don't expect serious investors to be in a hurry to buy' a dealer pointed out. STX Panocean fell the most, erasing 44 cents at $14.72 and was tracked by SIA, OKP, Haw Par, Venture Corp, City Developments, Wilmar, SGX, Hong Kong Land and Great Eastern that fell between 2 and 27.5 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, SembCorp, Semb Marine, DBS, Keppel Corp, HsuFuchi and Jardine C&C rose between 1 and 24 cents.
====
Market close Nov 20. Singapore shares close flat on last trading day of the week
Singapore shares were mainly flatlined today following Wall Street's broad decline overnight. Investors were concerned a stronger correction could be on the cards. The STI index traded in a tight range but gained 2.75 points at 2,761.54 points. Market breadth was still negative as gains were skewed to the index components. Turnover was 1.15bil shares with a value of $1.16bil traded.
Stocks fell not because investors feared the economic recovery was losing momentum but simply because the rally was. The approaching seasonal holidays and some overbought charts also kept buyers the sidelined.
Busy issues for the last trading day of the week were Genting, up 1 cent to $1.09 on 77mil, palm oil play Golden Agri, down half a cent to 47 cents on 58mil and Compact, cloing unchanged at 1 cent on 46mil. STX Panocean fell the most, erasing 34 cents at $14.38 and was tracked by SIA, OKP, Haw Par, and Venture Corp, that fell between 13 and 22 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine C&C, DBS, HL Asia and Sp Land rose between 10 and 36 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Thursday, November 19, 2009
19 Nov 09 : Weak Market Continues Sideways
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 19 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10426.31 -11.11
Nasdaq Composite: 2193.14 -10.64
________________________________________
The US market retreated slightly on Wednesday from 13-month highs following a surprise drop in new home construction which fueled concerns about the strength of the economic recovery and cautious profit outlook from Salesforce.com and Autodesk weighed on the technology sector. Despite government efforts to stimulate the battered housing industry, housing starts fell more than 10% to an annual rate of 529,000 in October, the lowest level in six months and worse-than-expectations of an annual rate of 600,000, from 592,000 in September. The annual rate of housing permit fell 4% to 552,000 in October, lower than expectations of 580,000 permits, from a revised 575,000 in September. Separately, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%, instead of an expected 0.2% rise, while core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% in October, slightly more than expectations of a 0.1% rise.
The major indices retreated slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.11% while S&P 500 dipped 0.05% to end at 1109.80. Nasdaq composite lost 0.48%.
Thursday will bring the new claims report for unemployment benefits.
US light crude oil for December delivery gained US$0.56 to settle at US$79.58 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite Wall Street gains overnight, some profit taking following last week’s rally sent the local market into a second day of decline. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweights from the financials and property sectors. The stronger US dollar sparked talks of the dollar trade unwinding by hedge funds. The STI index shed 19.91 points at 2745.04 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.47bil shares with a value of $1.33bil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a strengthening of the US dollar minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end trades when traders wind down ahead of the holidays.
Leading the declines were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 28 cents. Shares of Yingli clocked 9 cents to 62 cents on resumption of trading as traders reacted to the massive 252mil placement of new shares at 61 cents. `Lots of selling from those who can't get the placement shares and its bad news for anybody who bought Yingli shares last couple of days.' a dealer said. Besides the 253.2mil shares that was crossed at 61 cents (marry deal for the placement), a staggering 140 mil shares changed hands in just one afternoon of trading.
Expect market sentiment to be more upbeat today following an interview with the US President in China where he predicted that the US economy would grow again in the final quarter of 2009, pulling further out of the long and crippling recession.
==========
Mid day November 19. STI edged higher after release of GDP data
Wall Street snapped a three day winning streak to end the session down while it was a mixed day for Asia, albeit on low volumes. Singapore shares edged higher led by economic sensitives after the release of 3Q GDP that came in within consensus estimates of a 14.2 per cent quarter on quarter growth. The STI index rebounded 27.50 points at 2772.54 points. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was light on 526mil shares with a value of $495mil traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so ( if it hasn't already begun). UOB led the rebound, adding 48 cents at $19.86 and was tracked by DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, Jardine C&C, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 2 and 24 cents. Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending an annoucement. Dealers said there may be a potential merger and acquisition deal. Shares of SBI Offshore; a recent listing, rebounded 1.5 cents at 24 cents. It shares had fallen hard yesterday on forced selling.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, Venture Corp, OUE, Olam, SGX, Kim Eng and Suntec REIT fell between 1 and 20 cents.
=========
Market close Nov 19. Profit taking slices earlier gains
Institutional buying of the index heavyweights here was not strong enough to offset the effects of a stronger US dollar that typically accompanies a weakening of equities. Traders said the firmer dollar probably spurred some carry trades unwinding. The STI index had its upside capped at 2785 and closed 13.75 points up at 2,758.79 points. Market breadth deteriorated through the day and finished with 1.3 declines to every stock that rose. Turnover was light on 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.25il traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so (if it hadn't already begun). Jardine Matheson led the rebound, adding 30 cents at $30.80 and was tracked by UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 1 and 28 cents.
Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending a n announcement. Dealers said there was speculation of a potential merger and acquisition deal.
On balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Venture Corp, OUE, Olam, SGX, Genting Sp, Kim Eng and Suntec REIT fell between 1 and 14 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10426.31 -11.11
Nasdaq Composite: 2193.14 -10.64
________________________________________
The US market retreated slightly on Wednesday from 13-month highs following a surprise drop in new home construction which fueled concerns about the strength of the economic recovery and cautious profit outlook from Salesforce.com and Autodesk weighed on the technology sector. Despite government efforts to stimulate the battered housing industry, housing starts fell more than 10% to an annual rate of 529,000 in October, the lowest level in six months and worse-than-expectations of an annual rate of 600,000, from 592,000 in September. The annual rate of housing permit fell 4% to 552,000 in October, lower than expectations of 580,000 permits, from a revised 575,000 in September. Separately, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%, instead of an expected 0.2% rise, while core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% in October, slightly more than expectations of a 0.1% rise.
The major indices retreated slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.11% while S&P 500 dipped 0.05% to end at 1109.80. Nasdaq composite lost 0.48%.
Thursday will bring the new claims report for unemployment benefits.
US light crude oil for December delivery gained US$0.56 to settle at US$79.58 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Despite Wall Street gains overnight, some profit taking following last week’s rally sent the local market into a second day of decline. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweights from the financials and property sectors. The stronger US dollar sparked talks of the dollar trade unwinding by hedge funds. The STI index shed 19.91 points at 2745.04 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.47bil shares with a value of $1.33bil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a strengthening of the US dollar minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end trades when traders wind down ahead of the holidays.
Leading the declines were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 28 cents. Shares of Yingli clocked 9 cents to 62 cents on resumption of trading as traders reacted to the massive 252mil placement of new shares at 61 cents. `Lots of selling from those who can't get the placement shares and its bad news for anybody who bought Yingli shares last couple of days.' a dealer said. Besides the 253.2mil shares that was crossed at 61 cents (marry deal for the placement), a staggering 140 mil shares changed hands in just one afternoon of trading.
Expect market sentiment to be more upbeat today following an interview with the US President in China where he predicted that the US economy would grow again in the final quarter of 2009, pulling further out of the long and crippling recession.
==========
Mid day November 19. STI edged higher after release of GDP data
Wall Street snapped a three day winning streak to end the session down while it was a mixed day for Asia, albeit on low volumes. Singapore shares edged higher led by economic sensitives after the release of 3Q GDP that came in within consensus estimates of a 14.2 per cent quarter on quarter growth. The STI index rebounded 27.50 points at 2772.54 points. For every stock that fell, 1.5 rose. Turnover was light on 526mil shares with a value of $495mil traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so ( if it hasn't already begun). UOB led the rebound, adding 48 cents at $19.86 and was tracked by DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, Jardine C&C, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 2 and 24 cents. Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending an annoucement. Dealers said there may be a potential merger and acquisition deal. Shares of SBI Offshore; a recent listing, rebounded 1.5 cents at 24 cents. It shares had fallen hard yesterday on forced selling.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, Venture Corp, OUE, Olam, SGX, Kim Eng and Suntec REIT fell between 1 and 20 cents.
=========
Market close Nov 19. Profit taking slices earlier gains
Institutional buying of the index heavyweights here was not strong enough to offset the effects of a stronger US dollar that typically accompanies a weakening of equities. Traders said the firmer dollar probably spurred some carry trades unwinding. The STI index had its upside capped at 2785 and closed 13.75 points up at 2,758.79 points. Market breadth deteriorated through the day and finished with 1.3 declines to every stock that rose. Turnover was light on 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.25il traded.
With technical indicators at their higher reaches, most people were sitting on the sidelines with most expecting the market to correct in the next week or so (if it hadn't already begun). Jardine Matheson led the rebound, adding 30 cents at $30.80 and was tracked by UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, Hong Leong Asia, City Developments, Semb Corp, ST Engineering, SATs Services, WBL Corp, Wilmar and CapitaLand that rose between 1 and 28 cents.
Achieva rose 2 cents at 9.5 cents before it was halted pending a n announcement. Dealers said there was speculation of a potential merger and acquisition deal.
On balance, shares of Jardine C&C, Venture Corp, OUE, Olam, SGX, Genting Sp, Kim Eng and Suntec REIT fell between 1 and 14 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
18 Nov 09 : See Saw Market in Singapore
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 18 November 2009
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DJIA: 10437.42 +30.46
Nasdaq Composite: 2203.78 +5.93
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The US market recovered from early losses on Tuesday to close at 13-month highs for the second day in a row, underpinned by energy and materials companies following a rebound in commodity prices. However, gains were limited by mixed economic readings and weakness in the retail sector after Home Depot and Target issued cautious earnings outlook. Inflation at the wholesale level remained subdued with the Producer Price Index (PPI) edging up 0.3% in October, instead of an expected 0.5% rise and excluding food and energy prices, PPI fell 0.6% in October, instead of an expected 0.1% rise. Industrial production was weaker-than-expected, increasing 0.1% in October, instead of an expected 0.4% rise, from an increase of 0.7% in September. Capacity utilization rose by 0.2% point to 70.7%, slightly below expectations of 70.8%.
The major indices climbed modestly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.29% while S&P 500 edged up 0.09% to end at 1110.32. Nasdaq composite rose 0.27%.
Thursday will bring the close-watched report on consumer price, an inflation gauge, as well as reading on housing starts and building permit.
US light crude oil for December delivery gained US$0.24 to settle at US$79.14 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
There was profit-taking across most Asian markets on Tuesday as the weak greenback steadied. The Hang Seng slipped 0.13% and the Nikkei dipped 0.63%. Little positive leads from the European bourses in afternoon trading and the US index futures pointing to a possibly weaker session on Wall Street further zapped off the buying momentum in the recent rally in the Singapore market. The STI index lost 18.90 points to 2764.95 on weaker financial and property sectors. For every stock that rose, 2.4 fell. Overall market volume plummeted by one-third from the previous day to 1.28 bil shares with a value of $1.37bil traded.
Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Star Hub eased between 2 and 72 cents.
Shares of Olam reached a high of $2.71 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. The weaker market took back earlier gains to close unchanged. DBS Bank rose 14 cents at $14.70 as investors cheered the appointment of (veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 16 cents.
Expect the market to be range-bound today taking cues from the modest gains on Wall Street overnight and reports of the local export recovery hitting speed bumps following a surprising 6.1% YoY decline in Singapore exports in October on the back of weak electronics and sluggish drug exports.
===============================
Mid day November 18. STI lower on profit taking
It was a mixed day for Asian markets with shares in Hong Kong and Singapore lower on profit taking. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweights financials and property issues. The STI index shed 13.38 points at 2751.57 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 648mil shares with a value of $624mil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a weakening of the US dollar today minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end trades when traders wind down ahead of the holidays. Leading the decline were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 16 cents. Shares of Yingli were halted today on talks that the company was finalising a placement of 253mil new shares to institutional investors. Sources said the private placement at 61 cents went to some US funds with at least two funds taking the bulk of the placement.
On the balance, shares Jardine Matheson, Hong Leong Asia, Venture Corp, Kim Eng, Semb Corp, F&N, Starhub and Noble Group that fell between 1 and 52 cents.
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Market close Nov 18. Shares again slip in the second session
Singapore shares slipped fu rther in the afternoon, dragged by a dour European opening. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweight financial and property issues. The stronger US dollar sparked talks of the dollar trade unwinding by hedge funds. The STI index shed 19.91 points at 2745.04 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.47bil shares with a value of $1.32bil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a strengthening of the US dollar today minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end, when traders wind down ahead of the holidays.
Leading the decline were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 28 cents.
Shares of Yingli got clocked 9 cents to 62 cents on resumption of trading as traders reacted to the massive 252mil placement of new shares at 61 cents. `Lots of s e lling from those who can't get the placement shares and its bad news for anybody who bought Yingli shares last couple of days.' a dealer said. Besides the 253.2mil shares that was crossed at 61 cents (the married deal for the placement), a staggering 140 mil shares changed hands in just one afternoon of trading.
On balance, shares Jardine Matheson, SIA, Hong Leong Asia, Venture Corp, Parkway, Semb Corp, F&N, Starhub and Kim Eng fell between 1 and 80 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10437.42 +30.46
Nasdaq Composite: 2203.78 +5.93
________________________________________
The US market recovered from early losses on Tuesday to close at 13-month highs for the second day in a row, underpinned by energy and materials companies following a rebound in commodity prices. However, gains were limited by mixed economic readings and weakness in the retail sector after Home Depot and Target issued cautious earnings outlook. Inflation at the wholesale level remained subdued with the Producer Price Index (PPI) edging up 0.3% in October, instead of an expected 0.5% rise and excluding food and energy prices, PPI fell 0.6% in October, instead of an expected 0.1% rise. Industrial production was weaker-than-expected, increasing 0.1% in October, instead of an expected 0.4% rise, from an increase of 0.7% in September. Capacity utilization rose by 0.2% point to 70.7%, slightly below expectations of 70.8%.
The major indices climbed modestly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.29% while S&P 500 edged up 0.09% to end at 1110.32. Nasdaq composite rose 0.27%.
Thursday will bring the close-watched report on consumer price, an inflation gauge, as well as reading on housing starts and building permit.
US light crude oil for December delivery gained US$0.24 to settle at US$79.14 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
There was profit-taking across most Asian markets on Tuesday as the weak greenback steadied. The Hang Seng slipped 0.13% and the Nikkei dipped 0.63%. Little positive leads from the European bourses in afternoon trading and the US index futures pointing to a possibly weaker session on Wall Street further zapped off the buying momentum in the recent rally in the Singapore market. The STI index lost 18.90 points to 2764.95 on weaker financial and property sectors. For every stock that rose, 2.4 fell. Overall market volume plummeted by one-third from the previous day to 1.28 bil shares with a value of $1.37bil traded.
Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Star Hub eased between 2 and 72 cents.
Shares of Olam reached a high of $2.71 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. The weaker market took back earlier gains to close unchanged. DBS Bank rose 14 cents at $14.70 as investors cheered the appointment of (veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 16 cents.
Expect the market to be range-bound today taking cues from the modest gains on Wall Street overnight and reports of the local export recovery hitting speed bumps following a surprising 6.1% YoY decline in Singapore exports in October on the back of weak electronics and sluggish drug exports.
===============================
Mid day November 18. STI lower on profit taking
It was a mixed day for Asian markets with shares in Hong Kong and Singapore lower on profit taking. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweights financials and property issues. The STI index shed 13.38 points at 2751.57 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 648mil shares with a value of $624mil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a weakening of the US dollar today minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end trades when traders wind down ahead of the holidays. Leading the decline were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 16 cents. Shares of Yingli were halted today on talks that the company was finalising a placement of 253mil new shares to institutional investors. Sources said the private placement at 61 cents went to some US funds with at least two funds taking the bulk of the placement.
On the balance, shares Jardine Matheson, Hong Leong Asia, Venture Corp, Kim Eng, Semb Corp, F&N, Starhub and Noble Group that fell between 1 and 52 cents.
------------
Market close Nov 18. Shares again slip in the second session
Singapore shares slipped fu rther in the afternoon, dragged by a dour European opening. The benchmark index in Singapore was knocked lower led by heavyweight financial and property issues. The stronger US dollar sparked talks of the dollar trade unwinding by hedge funds. The STI index shed 19.91 points at 2745.04 points. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.47bil shares with a value of $1.32bil traded.
Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, a strengthening of the US dollar today minded investors to take some profits as many now saw the relevance of the dollar carry trade. Turnover was staying light, typical of the year end, when traders wind down ahead of the holidays.
Leading the decline were UOB, DBS, OCBC Bank, City Developments, CapitaLand, Yanlord and Keppel Land that eased between 3 and 28 cents.
Shares of Yingli got clocked 9 cents to 62 cents on resumption of trading as traders reacted to the massive 252mil placement of new shares at 61 cents. `Lots of s e lling from those who can't get the placement shares and its bad news for anybody who bought Yingli shares last couple of days.' a dealer said. Besides the 253.2mil shares that was crossed at 61 cents (the married deal for the placement), a staggering 140 mil shares changed hands in just one afternoon of trading.
On balance, shares Jardine Matheson, SIA, Hong Leong Asia, Venture Corp, Parkway, Semb Corp, F&N, Starhub and Kim Eng fell between 1 and 80 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
17 Nov 09 : Market Lacks Power
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 17 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10406.96 +136.49
Nasdaq Composite: 2197.8 +29.97
________________________________________
The US market surged to 13-month highs on Monday as energy and commodity shares rose on the back of a weaker greenback. The Federal Reserve Chairman’s statement that interest rates are expected to be kept “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” as the US economic recovery will be at a modest pace, further lifted the advance.
The mixed economic readings failed to dampen the market. Retail sales jumped 1.4% in October, ahead of expectations of an increase of 0.9%, from a decline of 1.5% in September. Excluding auto sales, however, sales rose only 0.2%, falling short of expectations of a 0.4% gain, from an increase of 0.5% in September. The manufacturing activity in New York has also slowed in November, with the Empire State index falling to 23.51 in early November, from 34.57 in October.
The major indices rallied higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.33% while S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to end at 1109.30. Nasdaq composite surged 1.38%.
Tuesday will bring more economic readings, including the producer price index, capacity utilization and industrial production in October. The market is also expecting the quarterly results release of Home Depot, Target and TJX Companies on the same day.
US light crude oil for December delivery jumped US$2.55 to US$78.90 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The resurgence of the US dollars carry trade, positive earnings revisions, economic growth and the firm belief that governments stay supportive of stimulus measures gave investors confidence to pile into the equity market on Monday. Stocks advanced further in afternoon trading spurred by the strong US index futures. The STI index added 56.62 points, or 2.1%, to finish at 2783.85. For every stock that fell, 4 rose. Turnover picked up to 1.85b shares with a value of S$1.8b traded.
With optimism over economic and earnings recovery gaining traction, investors were re-looking at investments in economic sensitive stocks. Banks have become a natural choice with UOB, DBS and OCBC Bank adding between 34 and 98 cents. Investors also jumped into shares of MacCook Industrial REITS, cheered by the new investor and plans for re-capitalisation. The Reit rose 5 cents at 40.5 cents. Positive earnings from Sinotel earned it fresh upgrades and a gain of 2 cents at 58 cents. Yangzijiang extended gains, adding 8 cents at $1.16 as investors played on the news that it would be added to the MSCI index.
Expect the market to consolidate today following the strong rally on Monday and in the absence of fresh leads.
========
Mid day November 17. Investor fatigue set in after recent gains
Asian markets shrugged off the strong Wall Street gains and were mostly off the best of their sessions on profit taking. While the three key US indices touched a new 2009 high, Asian markets were not mirroring that performance as investor fatigue set in after recent gains. The STI index shed 3.35 points at 2780.50 points on weaker financials and property issues. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 790mil shares with a value of $793mil traded.
It was a restless session punctuated with bouts of profit taking as traders took stock of the recent rally to lock in gains. Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Star Hub eased between 2 and 64 cents.
Shares of Olam rose 3 cents at $2.69 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. DBS Bank rose 30 cents at $14.86 as investors cheer the appointment of ( veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 14 cents.
================
Market close Nov 17. Stocks weaker after lunch
Singapore shares were mostly weaker after lunch with little positive leads from the European bourses. Profit taking appeared to be zapping some of the buying momentum out of the recent rally. The STI index shed 18.9 points at 2,764.95 points on weaker financials and property issues. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.27bil shares with a value of $1.37bil traded.
European bourses retreated from a 13 month closing high, snapping a four day winning streak. This precipitated further weakness here as traders looked to possibly a weaker session on Wall Street as indicated by the US index futures.
It was a restless session punctuated with bouts of profit taking as traders took stock of the recent rally to lock in gains. Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Starhub eased between 2 and 72 cents.
Shares of Olam reached a high of $2.71 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. The weaker market took it back to close unchanged at $2.66 by day’s end.
DBS Bank rose 14 cents at $14.70 as investors cheer the appointment of (veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 16 cents.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10406.96 +136.49
Nasdaq Composite: 2197.8 +29.97
________________________________________
The US market surged to 13-month highs on Monday as energy and commodity shares rose on the back of a weaker greenback. The Federal Reserve Chairman’s statement that interest rates are expected to be kept “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” as the US economic recovery will be at a modest pace, further lifted the advance.
The mixed economic readings failed to dampen the market. Retail sales jumped 1.4% in October, ahead of expectations of an increase of 0.9%, from a decline of 1.5% in September. Excluding auto sales, however, sales rose only 0.2%, falling short of expectations of a 0.4% gain, from an increase of 0.5% in September. The manufacturing activity in New York has also slowed in November, with the Empire State index falling to 23.51 in early November, from 34.57 in October.
The major indices rallied higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.33% while S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to end at 1109.30. Nasdaq composite surged 1.38%.
Tuesday will bring more economic readings, including the producer price index, capacity utilization and industrial production in October. The market is also expecting the quarterly results release of Home Depot, Target and TJX Companies on the same day.
US light crude oil for December delivery jumped US$2.55 to US$78.90 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The resurgence of the US dollars carry trade, positive earnings revisions, economic growth and the firm belief that governments stay supportive of stimulus measures gave investors confidence to pile into the equity market on Monday. Stocks advanced further in afternoon trading spurred by the strong US index futures. The STI index added 56.62 points, or 2.1%, to finish at 2783.85. For every stock that fell, 4 rose. Turnover picked up to 1.85b shares with a value of S$1.8b traded.
With optimism over economic and earnings recovery gaining traction, investors were re-looking at investments in economic sensitive stocks. Banks have become a natural choice with UOB, DBS and OCBC Bank adding between 34 and 98 cents. Investors also jumped into shares of MacCook Industrial REITS, cheered by the new investor and plans for re-capitalisation. The Reit rose 5 cents at 40.5 cents. Positive earnings from Sinotel earned it fresh upgrades and a gain of 2 cents at 58 cents. Yangzijiang extended gains, adding 8 cents at $1.16 as investors played on the news that it would be added to the MSCI index.
Expect the market to consolidate today following the strong rally on Monday and in the absence of fresh leads.
========
Mid day November 17. Investor fatigue set in after recent gains
Asian markets shrugged off the strong Wall Street gains and were mostly off the best of their sessions on profit taking. While the three key US indices touched a new 2009 high, Asian markets were not mirroring that performance as investor fatigue set in after recent gains. The STI index shed 3.35 points at 2780.50 points on weaker financials and property issues. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 790mil shares with a value of $793mil traded.
It was a restless session punctuated with bouts of profit taking as traders took stock of the recent rally to lock in gains. Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Star Hub eased between 2 and 64 cents.
Shares of Olam rose 3 cents at $2.69 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. DBS Bank rose 30 cents at $14.86 as investors cheer the appointment of ( veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 14 cents.
================
Market close Nov 17. Stocks weaker after lunch
Singapore shares were mostly weaker after lunch with little positive leads from the European bourses. Profit taking appeared to be zapping some of the buying momentum out of the recent rally. The STI index shed 18.9 points at 2,764.95 points on weaker financials and property issues. For every stock that rose, 2 fell. Turnover was 1.27bil shares with a value of $1.37bil traded.
European bourses retreated from a 13 month closing high, snapping a four day winning streak. This precipitated further weakness here as traders looked to possibly a weaker session on Wall Street as indicated by the US index futures.
It was a restless session punctuated with bouts of profit taking as traders took stock of the recent rally to lock in gains. Stocks that rose the most in recent sessions reversed on profit taking. Shares of OCBC Bank, UOB, City Developments, Jardine Matheson, Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Yangzijiang, HPL, MCL Land, Noble Group and Starhub eased between 2 and 72 cents.
Shares of Olam reached a high of $2.71 as analysts applauded its most recent almond orchard acquisition. The weaker market took it back to close unchanged at $2.66 by day’s end.
DBS Bank rose 14 cents at $14.70 as investors cheer the appointment of (veteran- banker) Peter Seah as an independent director. Other stocks that were higher included shares of SIA, Cerebos, SATs Services, WBL Corp, SGX, ST Engineering and Cerebos that rose between 1 and 16 cents.
Labels:
Market Update
Obama Visit to China : What Does It Mean
Petitioning China
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
President Obama's trip to Asia is one part introduction, one part diplomatic dialogue and eight parts competitive economics. Whatever understandings are reached with leaders of Japan, South Korean or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) in Singapore, it is the visit to Beijing that matters.
The American President would like China's cooperation on the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, a more flexible currency policy for the yuan, open trade and continued Chinese purchase of American debt. He is likely to obtain only the last, the price for which will be all the others.
China wants unquestioned sovereignty over Tibet, an uncritical acceptance of its internal political and economic policies and reassurance that the United States will honor its debts, rein in deficit spending and prevent a dollar collapse.
The Beijing rulers received assurance on Tibet when Obama refused to see the exiled Tibetan Dali Lama. The frequent American criticism of China's trade policies and human rights issues has become much more muted in the past eleven months. This administration has not, as in previous terms, harangued China to open its political and economic system, Treasury Secretary Geithner's 'manipulated yuan' comment before the Senate Finance Committee notwithstanding.
The trade-off will come between the competitive economic agendas of China and the United States. The terms of this agreement have already been set; the China trip simply makes the new status quo plain for all to see.
President Obama will reassure President Hu that Washington takes its debt obligations seriously, that it is about to become serious about controlling Federal spending and that it holds to a strong dollar policy. President Hu will promise not to withdraw Chinese support from the Treasury market. The Chinese will pretend to believe the Americans and the Americans will not press them on any other topic.
The price for China's continued support of the US debt market and by extension of the administration's domestic agenda is American acquiescence in all international topics of importance to China. For the Chinese it is an excellent trade, a chance to neuter its greatest international adversary for the price of an investment it would probably have to make anyway. The basic fact of the trade is that China feels it has choices and the United States fears it does not. As long as Chinese withdrawal from the US debt market is more frightening to Washington than to Beijing China will have the upper hand in this relationship.
The Chinese currency policy does not just affect its trade with the United States. Because the yuan has been essentially fixed against the dollar since last summer it has depreciated against all other currencies as the dollar has fallen. Terms of trade have worsened for Europe, South Korean, Japan, Taiwan and all of China's trading partners. Asian central banks have had to spend billions of reserves defending the dollar against their own currencies lest the appreciation become detrimental to their economies. Though the recession has been less severe in Asia it has not skipped the region. World trade has had a larger percentage drop than the fall in GDP of any individual national economy; the economies that depend most heavily on exports have suffered the most. It does not help that the currency markets have long participated in the positive speculative view of Asian currencies against the dollar.
China's position as the chief and most important creditor of the United States gives it an influence in the world economy much greater than its relatively fragile political and economic strength warrants. Only the United States has the economic, political and military weight to challenge the Beijing Government's economic and trade policies. But US opposition is hamstrung by its need to petition the Chinese for more and more money. Absent the United States as the natural leader of nations demanding better trade policies from Beijing, the Chinese will be able to sustain and extend trade and currency policies that are beneficial to her but far less so to the rest of the world.
Beijing's understanding of the terms of trade that are best for the Chinese economy is encapsulated by its yuan policy. In the long run a currency program that beggars its neighbors does not do China, its trading partners or the world economy any good. After all someone, someplace has to buy Chinese products. Stable economic development for China, as for all others, depends on a domestic economy that absorbs a large portion of the national production. But, at least for now, China's rulers have decided that they can obtain a better deal in the global marketplace than would have been possible when the opposition to her trade policies was led by the United States and backed by many of China's trading partners.
President Obama's visit to Beijing is an acknowledgement of this new status quo in the world economy. China will set the terms of her trade for the world until the United States regains control of itsbudget.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
President Obama's trip to Asia is one part introduction, one part diplomatic dialogue and eight parts competitive economics. Whatever understandings are reached with leaders of Japan, South Korean or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) in Singapore, it is the visit to Beijing that matters.
The American President would like China's cooperation on the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, a more flexible currency policy for the yuan, open trade and continued Chinese purchase of American debt. He is likely to obtain only the last, the price for which will be all the others.
China wants unquestioned sovereignty over Tibet, an uncritical acceptance of its internal political and economic policies and reassurance that the United States will honor its debts, rein in deficit spending and prevent a dollar collapse.
The Beijing rulers received assurance on Tibet when Obama refused to see the exiled Tibetan Dali Lama. The frequent American criticism of China's trade policies and human rights issues has become much more muted in the past eleven months. This administration has not, as in previous terms, harangued China to open its political and economic system, Treasury Secretary Geithner's 'manipulated yuan' comment before the Senate Finance Committee notwithstanding.
The trade-off will come between the competitive economic agendas of China and the United States. The terms of this agreement have already been set; the China trip simply makes the new status quo plain for all to see.
President Obama will reassure President Hu that Washington takes its debt obligations seriously, that it is about to become serious about controlling Federal spending and that it holds to a strong dollar policy. President Hu will promise not to withdraw Chinese support from the Treasury market. The Chinese will pretend to believe the Americans and the Americans will not press them on any other topic.
The price for China's continued support of the US debt market and by extension of the administration's domestic agenda is American acquiescence in all international topics of importance to China. For the Chinese it is an excellent trade, a chance to neuter its greatest international adversary for the price of an investment it would probably have to make anyway. The basic fact of the trade is that China feels it has choices and the United States fears it does not. As long as Chinese withdrawal from the US debt market is more frightening to Washington than to Beijing China will have the upper hand in this relationship.
The Chinese currency policy does not just affect its trade with the United States. Because the yuan has been essentially fixed against the dollar since last summer it has depreciated against all other currencies as the dollar has fallen. Terms of trade have worsened for Europe, South Korean, Japan, Taiwan and all of China's trading partners. Asian central banks have had to spend billions of reserves defending the dollar against their own currencies lest the appreciation become detrimental to their economies. Though the recession has been less severe in Asia it has not skipped the region. World trade has had a larger percentage drop than the fall in GDP of any individual national economy; the economies that depend most heavily on exports have suffered the most. It does not help that the currency markets have long participated in the positive speculative view of Asian currencies against the dollar.
China's position as the chief and most important creditor of the United States gives it an influence in the world economy much greater than its relatively fragile political and economic strength warrants. Only the United States has the economic, political and military weight to challenge the Beijing Government's economic and trade policies. But US opposition is hamstrung by its need to petition the Chinese for more and more money. Absent the United States as the natural leader of nations demanding better trade policies from Beijing, the Chinese will be able to sustain and extend trade and currency policies that are beneficial to her but far less so to the rest of the world.
Beijing's understanding of the terms of trade that are best for the Chinese economy is encapsulated by its yuan policy. In the long run a currency program that beggars its neighbors does not do China, its trading partners or the world economy any good. After all someone, someplace has to buy Chinese products. Stable economic development for China, as for all others, depends on a domestic economy that absorbs a large portion of the national production. But, at least for now, China's rulers have decided that they can obtain a better deal in the global marketplace than would have been possible when the opposition to her trade policies was led by the United States and backed by many of China's trading partners.
President Obama's visit to Beijing is an acknowledgement of this new status quo in the world economy. China will set the terms of her trade for the world until the United States regains control of itsbudget.
Labels:
Trading Advice
Monday, November 16, 2009
16 Nov 09 : Market Roars.... A Bit
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 16 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10270.47 +73.00
Nasdaq Composite: 2167.88 +18.86
________________________________________
Despite weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment and trade deficit reports, the US stock market finished higher on Friday to end higher for the second week in a row, propped up by better-than-expected earnings report from retailers, JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch, as investor gained confidence in the pace of the economic recovery. Consumer sentiment unexpected fell to 66 in early November, from 70.6 while the trade deficit in September grew by an unexpected 18.2% to US$36.5b, worse-than-expectations of a US$31.65b shortfall, from a deficit of US$30.8b in August.
For the week, the major indices ended higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 2.46% while S&P 500 climbed 2.26% to end at 1093.48. Nasdaq composite was 2.62% higher.
A spate of economic news this week will set the market tone for the week. Starting off the week will be the government’s October retail sales report, manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region and business inventory data for September on Monday. The Fed Reserve Chairman will also comment on the outlook of the US economy on the same day.
For the week, US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$1.08, or 1.39%, to US$76.35 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets closed last week on a cheerful note due to better-than-expected earnings of some key companies (Walt Disney, JC Penny) and strength on Wall Street. The Singapore market was powered by healthy local corporate earnings in the recent third-quarter results reports. For the week, the STI index gained 69.02 points, or 2.60%, higher to 2727.23.
Expect the market to advance further today taking cues from the positive US close last Friday as well as better-than-expected preliminary third-quarter GDP estimates of 1.2% growth in Japan announced this morning. For the rest of the week, due to the lack of domestic data this week, expect market to take lead from developments from abroad, particularly, the October retail sales figures in the US due on Monday, as well as a deluge of economic data, including industrial productions and housing starts. On Thursday, the Japanese central bank will also meet to decide on interest rate policy.
=============
Mid day November 16. STI rose as investors rebuild positions
Wall Street's firm close Friday gave Asian markets a boost on Monday. Singapore shares rose as investors rebuild positions amid fresh upgrades by analysts. Singapore banks received substantial positive revisions and were key behind the index's gains. The STI index rose 46.06 points at 2773.29 points. For every stock that fell, 4 rose. Turnover was 1bil shares with a value of $963mil traded.
With optimism of the economic and earnings recovery gaining traction, investors were re-looking at investments in economic sensitive stocks. Bank have become a natural choice with UOB, DBS and OCBC Bank adding between 22 and 56 cents. Investors also jumped in shares of MacCook Industrial REITS, cheered by the new investor and plans for re-capitalisation. The reits rose 4.5 cents at 40 cents. Positive earnings from Sinotel earned it fresh upgrades and a gain of 2 cents at 58 cents. Others like STX Panocean, JMH, City Dev and HL Finance rose between 14 and 72 cents.
On the balance, shares of APB, TPV, China HC, Cougar and Dutech declined between 2 and 20 cents.
=========
Market close Nov 16. Stocks advance further in the second session
Stocks advanced further i n the afternoon on renewed investor buying spurred by the strong index futures. The resurgence of the US dollars carry trade, earnings revisions, economic growth and the firm belief that governments stay supportive of stimulus measures were reasons for the bullish sentiments. The STI index rose 56.62 points at 2,783.85 points. For every stock that fell, 4 rose. Turnover was 1.85bil shares with a value of $1.8 bil traded.
With optimism of the economic and earnings recovery gaining traction, investors were re-looking at investments in economic sensitive stocks. Banks have become a natural choice with UOB, DBS and OCBC Bank adding between 34 and 98 cents. Investors also jumped into shares of MacCook Industrial REITS, cheered by the new investor and plans for re-capitalisation. The Reits rose 5 cents at 40.5 cents.
Positive earnings from Sinotel earned it fresh upgrades and a gain of 2 cents at 58 cents.
Yangzijiang extended gains, adding 8 cents at $1.16 a s investors played on the news that it would be added to the MSCI index. Others like STX Panocean, JMH, City Dev and HL Finance rose between 14 and $1.00.
On the balance, shares of APB, Cougar, China HC, TPV and Dutech declined between 1 and 20 cents
Labels:
Market Update
Friday, November 13, 2009
13 Nov 09 : Market Update
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 13 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10197.47 -93.79
Nasdaq Composite: 2149.02 -17.88
________________________________________
Following six days of advances, the US market closed lower as concerns over the sharp market run-up ahead of recovery fundamental resurfaced. In the face of weakness in the labour and housing markets that has left consumers cash-strapped, a pick-up in consumer spending is expected to remain weak. As a result, fresh doubts over whether the stock market rally is sustainable resurface.
On the economic front, the weekly initial jobless claims were 502,000, the lowest level since Jan 3 2009, and below expectations of 510,000. The Treasury Department reported a federal deficit of US$176.4b in October, the 13th monthly deficit in a row.
The major indices ended lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.91% while S&P 500 lost 1.03% to end at 1087.24. Nasdaq composite was down 0.83%.
Friday brings the quarterly results of JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch as well as economic readings on consumer sentiment index reading for November and the September trade deficit figure.
US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$2.34, or 2.95%, to US$76.94 a barrel after a report from the Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil supplies jumped more than expected.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The sentiment was lackluster across Asian markets on Thursday, with blue-chip shares around the region trading at a tight range. The US index futures index that was pointing to a lower start, coupled with Europe’s dour opening, contributed to the cautious mood. The STI lost 14.19 points, or 0.52%, to 2726.24. Further profit taking eroded the market's strength and market breadth deteriorated further. For every stock that rose, 1.54 fell. Turnover was 1.29bil shares with a value of $1.47bil traded.
Dealers said trading activities was winding down to a slower pace as the seasonal holidays arrive. `Lower volumes usually accompany higher volatility and after 6 days of gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, traders would prefer the sidelines than to jump in now'.
Situational issues dominated trading. Oceanus added half a cent at 34.5 cents following a series of upgrades from brokers. Shares of Biosensors rose following positive comments from a foreign broker that has a buy call with a price target of $1.06. Its shares ended 3 cents higher at 72 cents. Ezion's results beat expectations but shed 1 cent at 77.5 cents. Yangzijiang rose 6 cents at $1.05 on news that it will be included in the MSCI Singapore free index. It shares had risen in prior sessions. Others like Jardine C&C, UOB, SIA, ST Engineering, DBS, F&N, Haw Par and Ezra rose between 1.5 and 88 cents.
Expect sentiment to remain cautious and the market to be range-bound today in the absence of fresh leads and ahead of the weekend.
Labels:
Market Update
Thursday, November 12, 2009
12 Nov 09 : Market Bad Bad
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 12 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10291.26 +44.29
Nasdaq Composite: 2166.90 +15.82
________________________________________
The US market continued its advance with the Dow Jones finishing at a 13-month high for the third straight day following rising investor optimism on expectations that interest rates would remain low for some time and the record-low interest rate is expected to underpin the market. At the Federal Reserve meeting last week, central bankers said that the economic recovery was likely to be muted and that the central bank would keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
The major indices ended higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.43% while S&P 500 rose 0.50% to end at 1098.51. Nasdaq composite climbed 0.74%.
Thursday brings the quarterly results of Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney as well as economic readings on weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget.
US light crude oil for December delivery rose US$0.23 to US$79.28 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Some of the Asian markets were pushed higher for the fourth straight day, buoyed by positive economic news from China and Japan. Japan’s core machinery orders rose for the second straight month while China saw an increase in industrial output and retail sales. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.61% to its highest close in more than 15 months. A strong European open and higher US index futures further boosted the STI index, gaining 32.83 points, or 1.21%, to 2740.43, the highest level since September, helped by firmer finishes in the banks. For every stock that fell, 2.34 rose. Trading volume was low with turnover of 1.14 bil shares with a value of S$1.40 bil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Dealers said most traders were doing `scalp trades' and keeping mostly to intra-day trades. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said.
New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 31.5 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement. Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric shed 4 cents at $1.74. SPH shed 15 cents at $3.74 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Expect market to be range-bound today in the absence of fresh leads. Corporate results due today include Wilmar, ComfortDelgro, City Development and Ho Bee.
============
Mid day November 12. STI's initial gains withered to a loss
Despite a positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets struggled to maintain the positive morning advance. Nimble traders were keeping to quick gains to protect any profit loss. The STI index saw its initial gains withered to a loss of 10.67 points on profit taking to end at 2729.76 points. Market breadth was flat at best with most issues unchanged. Turnover was 696mil shares with a value of $797mil traded.
Dealers said trading activities was winding down to a slower pace as the seasonal holidays arrive. `Lower volumes usually accompanies higher volatility and after 6 days if gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, traders would prefer the sidelines than to jump in now'. Situational issues dominated trading. Oceanus added half a cent at 34.5 cents following a series of upgrades from brokers. Shares of Biosensors rose following positive comments from a foreign broker that has a buy call with a price target of $1.06. Its shares ended 2.5 cents higher at 71.5 cents. Ezion's results beat expectations but shed half a cent at 78 cents. Yangzijiang rose 7 cents at $1.06 on news that it would be included in the MSCI Singapore free index. It shares had risen is prior sessions. Other like Jardine C&C, UOB, SIA, ST Engineering, DBS, F&N, Ezra and CapitaLand rose between 3 and 70 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SGX, City Developments, Parkway, Delong, TPV and Singtel eased between 2 and 76 cents. Shares of Venture Corp got clocked 32 cents to $8.99 after it posted results that were below expectations.
===========
Market close Nov 12. Afternoon session closes off day's low
The afternoon session failed to inspire with Europe's dour opening and US index futures pointing to a lower start. Further selling after lunch precipitated further losses that had the STI index slipping 14.19 points to 2,726.24 points. Further profit taking eroded the market's strength and had market breadth deteriorating further. Turnover was 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.47bil traded.
Dealers said trading activities was winding down to a slower pace as the seasonal holidays arrive. `Lower volumes usually accompanies higher volatility and after 6 days of gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, traders would prefer the sidelines than to jump in now'.
Situational issues dominated trading. Oceanus added half a cent at 34.5 cents following a series of upgrades from brokers. Shares of Biosensors rose following positive comments from a foreign broker that has a buy call with a price target of $1.06. Its shares ended 3 cents higher at 72 cents.
Ezion's results beat expectations but she d 1 cent at 77.5 cents. Yangzijiang rose 6 cents at $1.05 on news that it would be included in the MSCI Singapore free index. It shares had risen is prior sessions. Others like Jardine C&C, UOB, SIA, ST Engineering, DBS, F&N, Haw Par and Ezra rose between 1.5 and 88 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SGX, City Developments, Parkway, Delong, TPV and Singtel eased between 2 and 78 cents. Shares of Venture Corp got clocked 41 cents to $8.90 after it posted results that were below expectations.
________________________________________
DJIA: 10291.26 +44.29
Nasdaq Composite: 2166.90 +15.82
________________________________________
The US market continued its advance with the Dow Jones finishing at a 13-month high for the third straight day following rising investor optimism on expectations that interest rates would remain low for some time and the record-low interest rate is expected to underpin the market. At the Federal Reserve meeting last week, central bankers said that the economic recovery was likely to be muted and that the central bank would keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
The major indices ended higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.43% while S&P 500 rose 0.50% to end at 1098.51. Nasdaq composite climbed 0.74%.
Thursday brings the quarterly results of Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney as well as economic readings on weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget.
US light crude oil for December delivery rose US$0.23 to US$79.28 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
Some of the Asian markets were pushed higher for the fourth straight day, buoyed by positive economic news from China and Japan. Japan’s core machinery orders rose for the second straight month while China saw an increase in industrial output and retail sales. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.61% to its highest close in more than 15 months. A strong European open and higher US index futures further boosted the STI index, gaining 32.83 points, or 1.21%, to 2740.43, the highest level since September, helped by firmer finishes in the banks. For every stock that fell, 2.34 rose. Trading volume was low with turnover of 1.14 bil shares with a value of S$1.40 bil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Dealers said most traders were doing `scalp trades' and keeping mostly to intra-day trades. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said.
New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 31.5 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement. Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric shed 4 cents at $1.74. SPH shed 15 cents at $3.74 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Expect market to be range-bound today in the absence of fresh leads. Corporate results due today include Wilmar, ComfortDelgro, City Development and Ho Bee.
============
Mid day November 12. STI's initial gains withered to a loss
Despite a positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets struggled to maintain the positive morning advance. Nimble traders were keeping to quick gains to protect any profit loss. The STI index saw its initial gains withered to a loss of 10.67 points on profit taking to end at 2729.76 points. Market breadth was flat at best with most issues unchanged. Turnover was 696mil shares with a value of $797mil traded.
Dealers said trading activities was winding down to a slower pace as the seasonal holidays arrive. `Lower volumes usually accompanies higher volatility and after 6 days if gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, traders would prefer the sidelines than to jump in now'. Situational issues dominated trading. Oceanus added half a cent at 34.5 cents following a series of upgrades from brokers. Shares of Biosensors rose following positive comments from a foreign broker that has a buy call with a price target of $1.06. Its shares ended 2.5 cents higher at 71.5 cents. Ezion's results beat expectations but shed half a cent at 78 cents. Yangzijiang rose 7 cents at $1.06 on news that it would be included in the MSCI Singapore free index. It shares had risen is prior sessions. Other like Jardine C&C, UOB, SIA, ST Engineering, DBS, F&N, Ezra and CapitaLand rose between 3 and 70 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SGX, City Developments, Parkway, Delong, TPV and Singtel eased between 2 and 76 cents. Shares of Venture Corp got clocked 32 cents to $8.99 after it posted results that were below expectations.
===========
Market close Nov 12. Afternoon session closes off day's low
The afternoon session failed to inspire with Europe's dour opening and US index futures pointing to a lower start. Further selling after lunch precipitated further losses that had the STI index slipping 14.19 points to 2,726.24 points. Further profit taking eroded the market's strength and had market breadth deteriorating further. Turnover was 1.28bil shares with a value of $1.47bil traded.
Dealers said trading activities was winding down to a slower pace as the seasonal holidays arrive. `Lower volumes usually accompanies higher volatility and after 6 days of gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, traders would prefer the sidelines than to jump in now'.
Situational issues dominated trading. Oceanus added half a cent at 34.5 cents following a series of upgrades from brokers. Shares of Biosensors rose following positive comments from a foreign broker that has a buy call with a price target of $1.06. Its shares ended 3 cents higher at 72 cents.
Ezion's results beat expectations but she d 1 cent at 77.5 cents. Yangzijiang rose 6 cents at $1.05 on news that it would be included in the MSCI Singapore free index. It shares had risen is prior sessions. Others like Jardine C&C, UOB, SIA, ST Engineering, DBS, F&N, Haw Par and Ezra rose between 1.5 and 88 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, SGX, City Developments, Parkway, Delong, TPV and Singtel eased between 2 and 78 cents. Shares of Venture Corp got clocked 41 cents to $8.90 after it posted results that were below expectations.
Labels:
Market Update
My Own Multiple Monitors with Mac Mini
I set up my Mac Mini to be able to do dual display today. It is running VM Fusion 3 and so I also run my MT4 (FX trading software) on Windows XP in VM Fusion 3.
Trading... need to trade better.. yet I am spending money first :)
Trading... need to trade better.. yet I am spending money first :)
Labels:
Trading Advice
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
11 Nov 09 : Market Update
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 11 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10246.97 +20.03
Nasdaq Composite: 2151.08 -2.98
________________________________________
The US market ended mixed on Tuesday as investors turned cautious following a strong rebound the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.20% while S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged, dipping 0.01% to end at 1093.01. Nasdaq composite slipped 0.14%.
In the absence of major economic reports, the market is expected to focus on corporate news including quarterly results of Applied Material on Wednesday, Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney on Thursday and JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch on Friday. On the economic front, readings on the weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget are due on Thursday. Friday will bring the consumer sentiment index reading for November and the September trade deficit figure.
US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$0.38 to US$79.05 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets rallied in early trading on Tuesday following Wall Street’s overnight rally and the weakening greenback. But the euphoria was short-lived when the greenback recovered slightly in the afternoon. The Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which hit a two-week high in mid-day trading yesterday, closed just 0.27% higher. Tokyo’s Nikkei was 0.63% higher while Taiwan’s Taiex was 0.75% higher. The STI index hit a high of 2726.9 before slipping below the 2700 level but managed to eke out a third-day gain, underpinned by banking shares. The STI closed 14.22 points, or 0.53%, higher at 2707.60. For every stock that rose, 1.13 fell. Turnover was 1.42 bil shares with a value of S$1.45 bil traded.
Banking stocks rose, fuelled by optimism over the rosy third-quarter earnings. UOB rose 40 cents to a one-year high of $18.40 while DBS added 22 cents to $13.94. OCBC gained 7 cents to $7.97. Active issues included Noble Group, which rose 6 cents to $2.80 with 30.16m shares traded and SingTel, which added 3 cents to $2.94 with 26.04m shares traded.
Expect market to be range-bound today following the mixed market close from Wall Street overnight and in the absence of fresh leads. Corporate results due today include Indofood Agri and Golden Agri.
=======================================================================
Mid day November 11. Key Asian indices trading in tight range
US stocks finished mixed, consolidating after the previous session' strong surge. Likewise, it was a modestly slow day in Asia with key indices keeping to a tight range, albeit off their session's highs. Economic data from China suggested better than expected growth statistics without inflationary pressures. The STI index rose 3.49 points at 2711.09 points. Market breadth was modestly positive but most issues were unchanged given more sidelined investors. Turnover was 494mil shares with a value of $587mil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said. New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 33 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement. Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric, Golden Agric, Kencana Agric and First Resources shed between half and 7 cents. SPH shed 16 cents at $3.73 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Stocks that rose today included Jardine C&C, Semb Corp, City Developments, OCBC bank, UOB, SGX and Keppel Corp that added between 3 and 30 cents.
=============
Market close Nov 11. Strong Europe open and positive US futures lifts STI
A strong Europ ean open and higher US index futures boosted Singapore shares in the afternoon. Traders were also encouraged by the stronger finish in the Hang Seng index that shook off its earlier lethargy to close 1.6 per cent higher. The STI index rose 32.83 points at 2,740.43 points helped by firmer finishes in the banks. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 1.14bil shares with a value of $1.4bil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Dealers said most traders were doing `scalp trades' and keeping mostly to intra-day trades. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said.
New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 31.5 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement.
Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric shed 4 cents at $1.74.
SPH shed 15 cents at $3.74 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Stocks that rose today included Jardine C&C, Semb Corp, City Developments, OCBC bank, UOB, SGX and Keppel Corp that added between 3 and $1.06 cents.
=======================
________________________________________
DJIA: 10246.97 +20.03
Nasdaq Composite: 2151.08 -2.98
________________________________________
The US market ended mixed on Tuesday as investors turned cautious following a strong rebound the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.20% while S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged, dipping 0.01% to end at 1093.01. Nasdaq composite slipped 0.14%.
In the absence of major economic reports, the market is expected to focus on corporate news including quarterly results of Applied Material on Wednesday, Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney on Thursday and JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch on Friday. On the economic front, readings on the weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget are due on Thursday. Friday will bring the consumer sentiment index reading for November and the September trade deficit figure.
US light crude oil for December delivery fell US$0.38 to US$79.05 a barrel.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets rallied in early trading on Tuesday following Wall Street’s overnight rally and the weakening greenback. But the euphoria was short-lived when the greenback recovered slightly in the afternoon. The Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which hit a two-week high in mid-day trading yesterday, closed just 0.27% higher. Tokyo’s Nikkei was 0.63% higher while Taiwan’s Taiex was 0.75% higher. The STI index hit a high of 2726.9 before slipping below the 2700 level but managed to eke out a third-day gain, underpinned by banking shares. The STI closed 14.22 points, or 0.53%, higher at 2707.60. For every stock that rose, 1.13 fell. Turnover was 1.42 bil shares with a value of S$1.45 bil traded.
Banking stocks rose, fuelled by optimism over the rosy third-quarter earnings. UOB rose 40 cents to a one-year high of $18.40 while DBS added 22 cents to $13.94. OCBC gained 7 cents to $7.97. Active issues included Noble Group, which rose 6 cents to $2.80 with 30.16m shares traded and SingTel, which added 3 cents to $2.94 with 26.04m shares traded.
Expect market to be range-bound today following the mixed market close from Wall Street overnight and in the absence of fresh leads. Corporate results due today include Indofood Agri and Golden Agri.
=======================================================================
Mid day November 11. Key Asian indices trading in tight range
US stocks finished mixed, consolidating after the previous session' strong surge. Likewise, it was a modestly slow day in Asia with key indices keeping to a tight range, albeit off their session's highs. Economic data from China suggested better than expected growth statistics without inflationary pressures. The STI index rose 3.49 points at 2711.09 points. Market breadth was modestly positive but most issues were unchanged given more sidelined investors. Turnover was 494mil shares with a value of $587mil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said. New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 33 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement. Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric, Golden Agric, Kencana Agric and First Resources shed between half and 7 cents. SPH shed 16 cents at $3.73 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Stocks that rose today included Jardine C&C, Semb Corp, City Developments, OCBC bank, UOB, SGX and Keppel Corp that added between 3 and 30 cents.
=============
Market close Nov 11. Strong Europe open and positive US futures lifts STI
A strong Europ ean open and higher US index futures boosted Singapore shares in the afternoon. Traders were also encouraged by the stronger finish in the Hang Seng index that shook off its earlier lethargy to close 1.6 per cent higher. The STI index rose 32.83 points at 2,740.43 points helped by firmer finishes in the banks. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 1.14bil shares with a value of $1.4bil traded.
It was a slow and sluggish day as traders grew weary about the sustainability of the recent rally. Dealers said most traders were doing `scalp trades' and keeping mostly to intra-day trades. Many expect trading to be choppy even if there can be some upside in this seasonal period. `Do expect trading volumes to dwindle. We have had a good 6 to 8 months of rally many may choose not to do much now' a dealer said.
New listing SBI Offshore did well making its debut at 32.5 cents before settling at 31.5 cents. The company had offered 20mil new shares at 27 cents via a private placement.
Palm oil stocks lost some shine today after a local broker said it did not favour CPO issues from a technical standpoint. Shares of Indoagric shed 4 cents at $1.74.
SPH shed 15 cents at $3.74 after a local broker downgraded the stock, saying that it had overpaid for Clementi mall. Its $542mil bid was 42 per cent higher than that of the second bidder.
Stocks that rose today included Jardine C&C, Semb Corp, City Developments, OCBC bank, UOB, SGX and Keppel Corp that added between 3 and $1.06 cents.
=======================
Labels:
Market Update
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
10 Nov 09 : This is a very weak market
With a great Dow Jones night, you would expect a brilliant STI today. Not so... It was a nice open but not so nice finish :(
Olam itself went up as high as $2.67 but it did not managed to hold on to the gains and tumbled down to close at $2.60. For myself, I had set a stop loss of $2.59 when I saw that it open really strongly at $2.63 and then shoot up to $2.66. I was expecting a good strong performance from Olam to recover from its bad few weeks. Unfortunately, it did not hold at $2.66 and then went down to $2.64 and held then for a while. I still thought it was okay.
However, I was stopped out at $2.59 in the middle of the afternoon. Giving me a 3 cents profit instead of a 10 cents profit. I am happy to have some profits but still, it is not a good way of trading. Sigh.
===========
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 10 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10226.94 +203.52
Nasdaq Composite: 2154.06 +41.62
________________________________________
The US market rallied on Monday with the Dow Jones surging to 13-month high as investor confidence rose following pledges by the Finance ministers of the Group of 20, which met over the weekend, to keep economic stimulus in place, signaling continued global recovery. Talks of deals further lifted the market as these were viewed as a consolidation of domestic opportunity, rather than a transfer of American wealth to the international market. These included a US$16.3b hostile bid by Kraft for Cadbury and the sale of Northrop Grumman’s consulting arm to two private equity firms for US$1.65b.
All the major indices surged higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.03% and S&P 500 gained 2.22% to end at 1093.08. Nasdaq composite rose 1.97%.
This week brings the quarterly results of Applied Material on Wednesday, Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney on Thursday and JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch on Friday. On the economic front, readings on the weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget are also due on Thursday. Friday will bring the consumer sentiment index reading for November and the September trade deficit figure.
US light crude oil for December delivery rose US$2.00 to US$79.43 a barrel, following a decline of close to 3% from the previous session.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets shrugged off the dismal job data in the US, advancing on Monday, albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollar which could boost carry trades. The STI index opened higher but bargain hunters lifted stocks in the afternoon as US equity futures headed positive, pushing the index 35.17 points, or 1.32%, higher to close at 2693.38. Market breadth was positive, with 348 gainers and 147 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.24bil shares with a value of $1.24bil traded.
Top gainers for the day included Jardine C&C, up 40 cents to $23, DBS, up 34 cents to $13.72, and SIA, up 26 cents to $14.24. Top losers were HsuFuChi, down 5 cents to $1.75, Hyflux, down 5 cents to $3.05 and TPV, down 5 cents to 98 cents.
Expect market to advance higher today taking cues from the strong Wall Street rally overnight. Corporate results due today include StarHub and SIA.
==================================
Mid day November 10. Asian markets climbed following surge in US stocks
US stocks surged with the Dow Jones Industrials index leaping over 200 points fueled by investor confidence over the certainty of liquidity to support the global recovery. A G20 statement of support that the stimulus measures will continue a while longer to support the fragile recovery likely spooked the bears into short covering. Others pointed to the carry trade effect given the renewed weakness in the US dollar. Asian markets climbed but were off their highs on profit taking. The STI index rose 18.45 points at 2711.83 points. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 796mil shares with a value of $775mil traded.
Traders said short sellers were caught off-guard by the sudden gains yesterday late afternoon which led to a scramble to `get back lost shares'. The swift about turn extended itself into the morning strong open but soon fizzled due to profit taking.
Erstwhile, shares of DBS, UOB, OCBC Bank, SGX, Venture Corp, Wilmar, Parkway, Olam, SIA, NOL and Sembmarine rose between 2 and 36 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C, Sarin, Best World, CapitaLand and MCL Land eased between 1.5 and 10 cents.
=======================
Olam itself went up as high as $2.67 but it did not managed to hold on to the gains and tumbled down to close at $2.60. For myself, I had set a stop loss of $2.59 when I saw that it open really strongly at $2.63 and then shoot up to $2.66. I was expecting a good strong performance from Olam to recover from its bad few weeks. Unfortunately, it did not hold at $2.66 and then went down to $2.64 and held then for a while. I still thought it was okay.
However, I was stopped out at $2.59 in the middle of the afternoon. Giving me a 3 cents profit instead of a 10 cents profit. I am happy to have some profits but still, it is not a good way of trading. Sigh.
===========
Pre-Market Open Commentary for 10 November 2009
________________________________________
DJIA: 10226.94 +203.52
Nasdaq Composite: 2154.06 +41.62
________________________________________
The US market rallied on Monday with the Dow Jones surging to 13-month high as investor confidence rose following pledges by the Finance ministers of the Group of 20, which met over the weekend, to keep economic stimulus in place, signaling continued global recovery. Talks of deals further lifted the market as these were viewed as a consolidation of domestic opportunity, rather than a transfer of American wealth to the international market. These included a US$16.3b hostile bid by Kraft for Cadbury and the sale of Northrop Grumman’s consulting arm to two private equity firms for US$1.65b.
All the major indices surged higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.03% and S&P 500 gained 2.22% to end at 1093.08. Nasdaq composite rose 1.97%.
This week brings the quarterly results of Applied Material on Wednesday, Wal-Mart Stores and Walt Disney on Thursday and JC Penny and Abercrombie & Fitch on Friday. On the economic front, readings on the weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget are also due on Thursday. Friday will bring the consumer sentiment index reading for November and the September trade deficit figure.
US light crude oil for December delivery rose US$2.00 to US$79.43 a barrel, following a decline of close to 3% from the previous session.
________________________________________
In Singapore today:
The Asian markets shrugged off the dismal job data in the US, advancing on Monday, albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollar which could boost carry trades. The STI index opened higher but bargain hunters lifted stocks in the afternoon as US equity futures headed positive, pushing the index 35.17 points, or 1.32%, higher to close at 2693.38. Market breadth was positive, with 348 gainers and 147 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.24bil shares with a value of $1.24bil traded.
Top gainers for the day included Jardine C&C, up 40 cents to $23, DBS, up 34 cents to $13.72, and SIA, up 26 cents to $14.24. Top losers were HsuFuChi, down 5 cents to $1.75, Hyflux, down 5 cents to $3.05 and TPV, down 5 cents to 98 cents.
Expect market to advance higher today taking cues from the strong Wall Street rally overnight. Corporate results due today include StarHub and SIA.
==================================
Mid day November 10. Asian markets climbed following surge in US stocks
US stocks surged with the Dow Jones Industrials index leaping over 200 points fueled by investor confidence over the certainty of liquidity to support the global recovery. A G20 statement of support that the stimulus measures will continue a while longer to support the fragile recovery likely spooked the bears into short covering. Others pointed to the carry trade effect given the renewed weakness in the US dollar. Asian markets climbed but were off their highs on profit taking. The STI index rose 18.45 points at 2711.83 points. For every stock that fell, 2 rose. Turnover was 796mil shares with a value of $775mil traded.
Traders said short sellers were caught off-guard by the sudden gains yesterday late afternoon which led to a scramble to `get back lost shares'. The swift about turn extended itself into the morning strong open but soon fizzled due to profit taking.
Erstwhile, shares of DBS, UOB, OCBC Bank, SGX, Venture Corp, Wilmar, Parkway, Olam, SIA, NOL and Sembmarine rose between 2 and 36 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C, Sarin, Best World, CapitaLand and MCL Land eased between 1.5 and 10 cents.
=======================
Labels:
Market Update,
Olam
Where did China's stimulus money goes
Where did China's stimulus money goes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Peninsula Hotel in Beijing has far more staff than its counterpart in New York. Squads of doormen hail cabs, busboys compete for baggage, water glasses are filled in the restaurant without asking. In the department store nearby dozens of sales clerks idly rearrange the merchandise and getting there is simple, Beijing may be the easiest major city in which to find a cab. There seem to be many more services positions than you would find in other big industrial cities, many more than are needed. Which raises a question about Chinese business, does it not value efficiency?
The obsession with maintaining or increasing employment represents the peculiarities of the Chinese economy and the political and social necessities of the governing China. The overriding goal of the government is to provide jobs and consequently enough wealth to obviate political disenchantment and dissent.
Chinese society has a long history of rural disaffections and a long history of respect for students. The first has been manifested many times of the past decade. The protests are usually in objection to corrupt officials and practices, in 2005 the government admitted to 70,000 incidents in the prior years. But such disputes can easily become a condemnation of the central government. This is one reason for Beijing's harsh treatment of corrupt official and firms. Execution is a common punishment for financial crimes. The second was typified by Tiananmen twenty years ago when normal Beijing residents stood in the way of tanks on their way to Tiananmen, throwing up barricades to protect the students. It is an event that the Beijing Government will go to almost any length to avoid repeating.
In the previous column we looked at GDP growth rates as reported by the government, 8.9% in the third quarter, 7.9% in the second and 6.1% in the first, and some possible contradictions. If the Chinese economy really grew at 8.9% in the 3rd quarter then secondary statistics should concur. But several important measures cast doubt on the probability that all is as reported.
For one exports and imports seemed to be out of line. Exports were down an average of 20.5% monthly in the third quarter and imports fell an average of 11.8%. The Chinese economy is 38% dependant on exports for GDP and it seems odd that goods produced for export orders are then not exported. Imports include both industrial and consumer products, raw materials, components and finished products. It is counter to logic that an economy that is expanding at an 8.9 % rate would not need more imports to produce its manufactures especially since a good deal of Chinese exports are assembled from imported components.
In this column we will look at a more basic comparison, money supply and prices. The question is the same, do the statistics make sense? If the M2 is growing at the documented rates but deflation exists at all levels of the price chain, are retail sales really expanding at the reported 15%? Where is the price pressure? If exports are down and retail sales are questionable is the 8.9% GDP creditable or sustainable?
Chinese M2 money supply grew at a year over year average rate of 28.75% in the third quarter, 26.7% in the second quarter and 21.59% in the first. These are Chinese government figures from the People's Bank of China ((PBOC) via Bloomberg. At the same time all price measures, from wholesale goods to CPI, have fallen.
The wholesale price index, the price of goods in inter-business transactions is down an average of 7.0 % in the third quarter, 7.6% in the second and 5.6% in the first (PBOC via Bloomberg). The producer price index representing changes in post production prices dropped 7.7 % in the third quarter, 7.2% in the second and 4.6 % in the first. Prices of retail goods slid 2.25 % in the third quarter, 2.03 % in the second and 0.8 % in the first. The wholesale and retail indices are from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) via Bloomberg. Likewise the purchasing price index (raw materials, fuels and power) dropped 11.06 % in Q3, 10.4 % in Q2 and 7.1 % in Q1 (NBS via Bloomberg). And finally the overall CPI was off 1.26 % in Q3, 1.53 % in Q2 and 0.6 % in Q1. The uniformity of the price direction is striking.
For comparison United States M2 year on year growth averaged 7.6 % in Q3, 8.6 % in Q2 and 9.4 % in Q1. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was down 5.3% year on year in Q3, 4.3% in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1. CPI is down an average of 1.63% in the first quarter, 1.13% in the second and 0.06% in the first.
Chinese M2 growth was 3.78 times faster than the US in the third quarter, 3.10 times faster in the second, and 2.28 in the first. However Chinese CPI is essentially the same as the US and Chinese producer prices fell at a much faster course than in the United States even though the money supply growth was three times more.
The purpose of this exercise is not to make minute comparison of the composition of inflation rates and money supply between China and the United States but to ask the logical question can M2 grow at these rates in an economy where GDP is expanding at 8.9% and retail sales are rising at 15% not produce appreciably different inflation rates? And if that is logically unlikely then which parts of the M2, GDP, retail sales equation is overstated?
Or to put it differently where is all that money going? It is not going into goods purchases because prices are falling at the consumer level and falling dramatically at the producer level. Some of this cash must be making its way into the equities; the Shanghai Exchange is up 73% this year. Property prices are reported higher in many of the coastal and developed cities but statistics are sparse.
The Chinese Government and the PBOC have flooded the economy with cash and loans, but money by itself cannot create demand and without demand it does not even produce inflation. Judging from the price levels in the Chinese economy consumer demand is minimal. If exports do not pick up who will buy the products of 8.9% growth?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Peninsula Hotel in Beijing has far more staff than its counterpart in New York. Squads of doormen hail cabs, busboys compete for baggage, water glasses are filled in the restaurant without asking. In the department store nearby dozens of sales clerks idly rearrange the merchandise and getting there is simple, Beijing may be the easiest major city in which to find a cab. There seem to be many more services positions than you would find in other big industrial cities, many more than are needed. Which raises a question about Chinese business, does it not value efficiency?
The obsession with maintaining or increasing employment represents the peculiarities of the Chinese economy and the political and social necessities of the governing China. The overriding goal of the government is to provide jobs and consequently enough wealth to obviate political disenchantment and dissent.
Chinese society has a long history of rural disaffections and a long history of respect for students. The first has been manifested many times of the past decade. The protests are usually in objection to corrupt officials and practices, in 2005 the government admitted to 70,000 incidents in the prior years. But such disputes can easily become a condemnation of the central government. This is one reason for Beijing's harsh treatment of corrupt official and firms. Execution is a common punishment for financial crimes. The second was typified by Tiananmen twenty years ago when normal Beijing residents stood in the way of tanks on their way to Tiananmen, throwing up barricades to protect the students. It is an event that the Beijing Government will go to almost any length to avoid repeating.
In the previous column we looked at GDP growth rates as reported by the government, 8.9% in the third quarter, 7.9% in the second and 6.1% in the first, and some possible contradictions. If the Chinese economy really grew at 8.9% in the 3rd quarter then secondary statistics should concur. But several important measures cast doubt on the probability that all is as reported.
For one exports and imports seemed to be out of line. Exports were down an average of 20.5% monthly in the third quarter and imports fell an average of 11.8%. The Chinese economy is 38% dependant on exports for GDP and it seems odd that goods produced for export orders are then not exported. Imports include both industrial and consumer products, raw materials, components and finished products. It is counter to logic that an economy that is expanding at an 8.9 % rate would not need more imports to produce its manufactures especially since a good deal of Chinese exports are assembled from imported components.
In this column we will look at a more basic comparison, money supply and prices. The question is the same, do the statistics make sense? If the M2 is growing at the documented rates but deflation exists at all levels of the price chain, are retail sales really expanding at the reported 15%? Where is the price pressure? If exports are down and retail sales are questionable is the 8.9% GDP creditable or sustainable?
Chinese M2 money supply grew at a year over year average rate of 28.75% in the third quarter, 26.7% in the second quarter and 21.59% in the first. These are Chinese government figures from the People's Bank of China ((PBOC) via Bloomberg. At the same time all price measures, from wholesale goods to CPI, have fallen.
The wholesale price index, the price of goods in inter-business transactions is down an average of 7.0 % in the third quarter, 7.6% in the second and 5.6% in the first (PBOC via Bloomberg). The producer price index representing changes in post production prices dropped 7.7 % in the third quarter, 7.2% in the second and 4.6 % in the first. Prices of retail goods slid 2.25 % in the third quarter, 2.03 % in the second and 0.8 % in the first. The wholesale and retail indices are from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) via Bloomberg. Likewise the purchasing price index (raw materials, fuels and power) dropped 11.06 % in Q3, 10.4 % in Q2 and 7.1 % in Q1 (NBS via Bloomberg). And finally the overall CPI was off 1.26 % in Q3, 1.53 % in Q2 and 0.6 % in Q1. The uniformity of the price direction is striking.
For comparison United States M2 year on year growth averaged 7.6 % in Q3, 8.6 % in Q2 and 9.4 % in Q1. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was down 5.3% year on year in Q3, 4.3% in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1. CPI is down an average of 1.63% in the first quarter, 1.13% in the second and 0.06% in the first.
Chinese M2 growth was 3.78 times faster than the US in the third quarter, 3.10 times faster in the second, and 2.28 in the first. However Chinese CPI is essentially the same as the US and Chinese producer prices fell at a much faster course than in the United States even though the money supply growth was three times more.
The purpose of this exercise is not to make minute comparison of the composition of inflation rates and money supply between China and the United States but to ask the logical question can M2 grow at these rates in an economy where GDP is expanding at 8.9% and retail sales are rising at 15% not produce appreciably different inflation rates? And if that is logically unlikely then which parts of the M2, GDP, retail sales equation is overstated?
Or to put it differently where is all that money going? It is not going into goods purchases because prices are falling at the consumer level and falling dramatically at the producer level. Some of this cash must be making its way into the equities; the Shanghai Exchange is up 73% this year. Property prices are reported higher in many of the coastal and developed cities but statistics are sparse.
The Chinese Government and the PBOC have flooded the economy with cash and loans, but money by itself cannot create demand and without demand it does not even produce inflation. Judging from the price levels in the Chinese economy consumer demand is minimal. If exports do not pick up who will buy the products of 8.9% growth?
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FX Trading,
Trading Advice
Monday, November 9, 2009
09 Nov 09 : Aging bull in a bear market rally
I got into Olam at $2.56 ... wanted to get it at $2.53 but hesitated and immediately it shot up so quickly.. hope can make some :)
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Mid day November 9. Asian markets rose, albeit on low volumes
The weak US jobs data did not deter Asian markets from rising; albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollars which could boost carry trades. The STI index rose 8.05 points at 2666.26 points. For every stock that fell, 1.2 rose. Turnover was light on 427mil shares with a value of $441mil traded.
Despite the postive lead on Wall Street, investors here stayed largely sidelined as most have begun to unwind ahead of the seasonal holidays. A dealer said stocks here would be in a drifting mode without any catalysts. `Traders are getting mercurial and volatility has risen a fair bit recently. This is an aging bull in a bear market rally' a dealer reasoned.
Singapore shares opened mostly higher but lacked the momentum to carry them above the highs of the session. Dealers said the penny caps fall of last week has left some players nursing their wounds whiles others noted the decline in turnover as traders planned for their holidays. Still, shares of Yingli, Straits Asia, Noble Group, Ziwo, Genting, Ezion and Indoagric managed to eek out a gain of between 1 and 8 cents. On the balance, shares of City Developments, Shangrila Asia, SingTel, Wing tai, CapitaLand, ST Engineering and M1 fell between 1 and 11 cents.
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Market Close November 9. STI ended higher on low volume
The weak US jobs data did not deter Asian markets from rising; albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollars which could boost carry trades. The STI index rose 33.85 points at 2692.06 points.Market breadth was positive, with 348 gainers and 147 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.2bil shares with a value of $1.2bbil traded.
Despite the postive lead on Wall Street, investors here stayed largely sidelined in the morning as most have begun to unwind ahead of the seasonal holidays. Bargain hunters lifted stocks in the afternoon as futures contracts headed northwards, suggesting that Wall Street would open higher tonight,.
Top gainers for the day included Jardine C&C, up 40 cents to $23, DBS, up 34 cents to $13.72, and SIA, up 26 cents to $14.24. Top losers were HsuFuChi, down 5 cents to $1.75, Hyflux, down 5 cents to $3.05 and TPV, down 5 cents to 98 cents.
======================================
Mid day November 9. Asian markets rose, albeit on low volumes
The weak US jobs data did not deter Asian markets from rising; albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollars which could boost carry trades. The STI index rose 8.05 points at 2666.26 points. For every stock that fell, 1.2 rose. Turnover was light on 427mil shares with a value of $441mil traded.
Despite the postive lead on Wall Street, investors here stayed largely sidelined as most have begun to unwind ahead of the seasonal holidays. A dealer said stocks here would be in a drifting mode without any catalysts. `Traders are getting mercurial and volatility has risen a fair bit recently. This is an aging bull in a bear market rally' a dealer reasoned.
Singapore shares opened mostly higher but lacked the momentum to carry them above the highs of the session. Dealers said the penny caps fall of last week has left some players nursing their wounds whiles others noted the decline in turnover as traders planned for their holidays. Still, shares of Yingli, Straits Asia, Noble Group, Ziwo, Genting, Ezion and Indoagric managed to eek out a gain of between 1 and 8 cents. On the balance, shares of City Developments, Shangrila Asia, SingTel, Wing tai, CapitaLand, ST Engineering and M1 fell between 1 and 11 cents.
===========
Market Close November 9. STI ended higher on low volume
The weak US jobs data did not deter Asian markets from rising; albeit on low volumes. Some traders linked the gains to the weak US dollars which could boost carry trades. The STI index rose 33.85 points at 2692.06 points.Market breadth was positive, with 348 gainers and 147 decliners. Turnover was light on 1.2bil shares with a value of $1.2bbil traded.
Despite the postive lead on Wall Street, investors here stayed largely sidelined in the morning as most have begun to unwind ahead of the seasonal holidays. Bargain hunters lifted stocks in the afternoon as futures contracts headed northwards, suggesting that Wall Street would open higher tonight,.
Top gainers for the day included Jardine C&C, up 40 cents to $23, DBS, up 34 cents to $13.72, and SIA, up 26 cents to $14.24. Top losers were HsuFuChi, down 5 cents to $1.75, Hyflux, down 5 cents to $3.05 and TPV, down 5 cents to 98 cents.
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Market Update
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