It was a very nervous trade in the first hour as it retrace against me and I lost up to nearly 20 pips. Then in the 2nd hour, the stock market went every bearish, it went my way and I adjusted my stop loss a few times. First time, I adjusted the stop loss = entry price + 2 pips (hee hee. Die die must make 2 pips). Then on the 2nd time, I moved it to 10 pips profit. Finally, I moved it to 30 pips protection. And one stage, the profits even went up to 70 pips but I only hold my stop loss at 30 pips. Then finally, very quickly the market recovered and I only managed to make 30 pips.
But I am happy as it is my maiden FX trade in my life and I came out profitable. Yippee (even if it is only 30 pips for 1 mini lot).
Currency Pair: AUD/USD
Trade: Short
Method: Retracement Continuation Method
Global Stock Market: Bearish (I have been bearish on this market for 1 week)
Date & Time of Entry: 29 July 2009, 0354 (GMT)
Entry Price: 0.8249
Initial SL: 0.8279
Basis of SL: Rule – 30PIPS
But if you checked the daily charts, there is a very strong resistance due to a rising channel. Luckily, it broke that channel in the 2nd hour.
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Wednesday 29 July 2009
Asian market sentiment to turn wary on global cues
GLOBAL EQUITIES
* The Dow and the S&P 500 dipped on Tuesday as investors shrugged off weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data and focused on positive earnings reports.
* The US Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence dropped to 46.6 in July, from 49.3 the previous month, as high unemployment levels continued to worry consumers.
* The report took a toll on crude oil prices and other commodities due to related consumer demand fears, with all types of commodity stocks falling as a result
* However, in afternoon trading, key indices reversed losses, led by the healthcare sector. Analysts said that a lot of the recovery was linked to a poor US Treasury auction, as money shifted from bonds into the stock market.
* Technology was also strong as many in the sector continue to provide relatively strong quarterly reports. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 7.62, or 0.39% , to 1,975.51 Tuesday.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 11.79 points, or 0.13% , to 9,096.72, while the Standard & Poor's 500 slid 2.56, or 0.26% , to 979.62.
* Emerging-market stocks rose for a fourth day. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.4% to 836.59 by late afternnon in New York. The index of stocks in 22 developing economies is at the highest since 25 September.
GLOBAL BONDS
* Shorter-dated US Treasury prices fell after an auction of $42-billion of two-year notes Tuesday drew little interest.
* Indirect bidders, a key gauge of foreign interest, accounted for just 32.6% versus a three-auction average of 51%, leaving analysts wondering if the global appetite for US government debt was waning.
* The worse-than-expected results don't bode well for Treasury's auction today of a record $39 billion in five-year notes. The US Treasury will also sell seven-year notes Thursday.
* The price of the benchmark 10-year note, however, rose 6/32 to yield 3.69% Tuesday. The benchmark yield curve, the gap between the two- and 10-year yields, fell to 261 bps, from 268 bps Monday.
COMMODITIES
* Comex gold declined $14.60, or 1.5%, to $941.70 an ounce as the US dollar rebounded Tuesday, eroding demand for the metal as an alternative investment.
* Oil prices fell on Tuesday after weak US consumer confidence spurred concerns about the economy. NYMEX crude oil prices settled down $1.15 at $67.23 a barrel.
* Optimism that a turnaround in the global economy could lift slumping fuel demand has supported crude prices this year.
* However, the wild swings in oil prices have pushed the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to consider setting position limits for crude and other finite commodities.
* The CFTC began hearings in Washington yesterday to examine whether to limit the positions of speculators who have no need for crude.
* The chief executive officer of BP Plc, the biggest oil and gas producer in the US, however, said in an interview yesterday that crude prices have mostly been driven by fundamentals.
HONG KONG
* Gains in heavyweight China Mobile and oil giant Cnooc on hopes they will list on the mainland soon led Hong Kong shares to another 10-month closing high Tuesday.
* The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 372.92 points, or 1.84%, to 20,624.54, its highest closing level since 8 September.
* Analysts said they expect a pullback in the market after July futures expire Thursday, with strong support at 19,000 because of abundant liquidity in the territory.
* Separately, continued capital inflows prompted the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene in the currency market again Tuesday, injecting HK$3.1 billion to maintain the local currency's peg to the US dollar.
SINGAPORE
* According to analysts, profit-taking is possible in the near term after the Straits Times Index jumped to a 10-month high Tuesday.
* The STI closed up 1.8%, or 47.38 points, at 2,624.04 on optimism that local companies and those in the US will release positive earnings news, said market observers.
* Commodity stocks also gain yesterday, with investors betting demand will continue to increase as the global economy recovers, they added.
CHINA
* Analysts said investors are likely to push China shares still higher in coming sessions, as they were encouraged by the expected stellar debut of homebuilder China State Construction Engineering.
* The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.1% at 3,438.37 led by gains in steel makers and property developers on expectations of a solid economic recovery.
* Analysts also attributed Tuesday's rise to institutional investors in China State Construction pushing up the market
* An analyst said that the stock index may continue to rise in the short term but recent surges have almost eaten up the potential gains.
* The average price/earnings ratio in the A-share market is around 40 times, but most companies' growth prospects don't support such levels, he added.
CURRENCIES
* The dollar recovered lost ground from its major rivals Tuesday as weak consumer confidence rekindled worries about an economic recovery and increased demand for safe-haven currencies.
* Yen and dollar buying increased after US consumer confidence fell more than expected in July.
* The safe-haven US dollar rebounded against the euro Tuesday as risk appetite faltered. In late-afternoon trade in New York, the euro was at $1.4172, down from $1.4233 late Monday.
* Analysts said the euro zone single currency's losses also reflected unwinding of huge euro long positions by speculative traders.
* The Chinese yuan was flat against the US dollar Tuesday, due to a steady dollar-yuan central parity rate at 6.8310, down slightly from 6.8316 late Monday.
* On the over-the-counter market, the US dollar was at CNY6.8309 around 0930 GMT, steady from Monday's close of CNY6.8310.
* The market was unmoved by a statement from the People's Bank of China, which warned of the potential for imported inflation in the second half of this year.
* Optimism about China has been increasing as signs mount that a four trillion yuan ($585.6 billion) government stimulus package unveiled earlier this year is helping revive growth.
* Australia and its currency are a big beneficiary of that optimism as Australia exports much of its iron ore, copper, gold and other resources to China to provide the raw materials needed for new buildings, railway lines and manufacturing .
* The commodity-linked currencies were especially boosted after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens yesterday suggested his central bank could raise interest rates before year-end.
* The governor made upbeat comments about the local economy Tuesday that pushed the Australian dollar as high as around $0.8338 against the US dollar Tuesday morning in New York.
* However, retreating oil prices dragged down the Australian dollar from its intraday high against the greenback.
* New Zealand's dollar traded at $0.6571 Tuesday morning in New York. The kiwi earlier slid to $0.6539 after the nation's statistics bureau said the trade deficit widened to NZ$3.18 billion ($2.1 billion) in the 12 months ended June 30.
* The Singapore dollar The Singapore dollar was trading higher late Tuesday in Asia as funds flowed into the local equities market and risk appetite improved. USD/SGD was at 1.6374.
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