I shorted Allgreen, a property share, today. I dun know why I can do it again (maybe emotions still high after last week's terrible Wilmar mistake).
I just feel that this rally will not go on and on every single day. There will be a drop soon. A big drop... Question is when. Too late and my stop loss will be triggered. :)
Maybe another mistake again :)
But I feel better :)
(if u check out the Yanlord price today, u will know I can kill myself. I sold out at $2.41.. the price today reached as high as $2.72.. AmAZING !)
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Pre-Market Open Commentary for 27 July 2009
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DJIA: 9,093.24 +23.95
Nasdaq Composite: 1965.96 -7.64
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It was a fairly firm closing for Wall Street on Friday, though the tech sector had to contend with Microsoft’s lower than expected earnings. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrials was up nearly 4 per cent to 9,093.24, above the 9,000 level.
The S&P 500 Index also gained nearly 4.1 per cent for the week while the Nasdaq Composite was a stronger 4.2 per cent.
Crude futures rose on speculation that OPEC is still looking to cut production. Crude oil for September delivery closed the week at US$68.05 per barrel, and was up some 7.1 per cent for the week.
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In Singapore today:
Singapore shares took a cue from the regional and global bourses, all of which had a fairly positive week. The improved sentiment was due to hopes of a bottoming in the economy and that the current results season would be better than expected. The Straits Times Index rose 102.5 points or 4.2 per cent for the week to 2,533.43.
News that property prices did not fall as much as expected in the 2Q also lent hope that the property market had turned around. Reports of a rise in property transactions and also a smaller supply pipeline than earlier projected will likely keep sentiment in the sector firm.
Otherwise, the market is likely to see some fillip this morning on the back of Wall Street’s positive close but will continue to take the cue from overseas given the lack of fresh positive factors.
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Mid day July 27. Optimism on recovery sent Asian markets higher.
Asian markets opened higher on mome ntum buying from last week as investors ride on the optimism of future recovery prospects. Analysts were beginning to churn out research on a `V-shaped' recovery and the strong bounce in share prices seem to foretell that view. A dealer said supporting the latest move were sidelined money that `had gotten rather impatient, waiting for the elusive pullback to buy'.
The STI index added 43.82 points at 2577.25 points. For every stock that fell, 5 rose. Turnover was 2.1bil shares with a value of $1.2bil traded.
CapitalMall Trust's results came in within expectations but rose 4 cents at $1.62. The company said occupancy rates remained high and there were some recent positive rental upwards revisions. Other REITs like Capital Commercial Trust, Ascott Reits, Suntec Reits, Capital Retail China Trust and CDL Hospitality Trust rose between 1.5 and 5 cents. Other gainers included Jardine C&C, UOB, DBS, SIA, OCBC Bank, City Developments, HPL, Yanlord, Kim Eng, Keppel Land a nd Orchard Parade that rose between 4 and 38 cents.
On the balance, shares of Jardine Strategic, SMRT, CentraLand, Venture Corp, UOL, Hong Kong Land, Keppel Corp and Marco Polo that eased between half and 40 cents.
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Monday 27 July 2009
Buffett maintains support for equities
GLOBAL EQUITIES
* Wall Street may take a breather this week after a number of prominent companies' earnings surpassed analysts' expectations and lifted key US stock indices to their highest levels in months.
* However, some analysts said that investors have been accentuating the positive -- better-than-expected growth in earnings or the bottom line -- and ignoring the negative -- poor growth in revenue or the top line.
* Still, in a live CNBC interview last Friday, legendary investor Warren Buffett maintained that equities were the place to invest despite recent rallies. He reiterated that he would rather own equities at Dow 9,000 than Treasuries or money market funds returning little.
* This week will kick off with more major companies revealing their report cards, such as about a third of the S&P 500 companies, and including such high-profile names as Exxon Mobil Corp and Walt Disney.
* On the economic front, new home sales for June are due on Monday.
* The Conference Board, a private research group, will release its July consumer confidence index on Tuesday. The index is expected to reflect concerns over job insecurity and falling home values.
* Investors will also get the first look at second-quarter GDP growth on Friday.
* The GDP data could reinforce the perception that the worst US recession in decades will end in the year's second half. The government's first reading on second-quarter GDP could be the last negative reading, according to some analysts
* Last Friday, global equities climbed higher to 2009 highs and crude oil rebounded as investors shrugged off disappointing results from Microsoft and Amazon to bid up drug-makers and energy shares on growing signs of economic recovery.
* Investors also digested a report that showed the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ebbed in late July to the lowest reading since April on growing pessimism about the long-term economic outlook.
* The DJIA gained 23.95 points, or 0.3%, to 9,093.24. The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 2.97 points, or 0.30%, to 979.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 7.64, or 0.4%, to 1,965.96, its first fall in 13 sessions.
* BRIC markets: Brazil's Bovespa stocks index continued its climb Friday, ending slightly higher with the help of advances in the power and real estate sectors. Local shares were also lifted by a rise in key commodities prices overseas and tame inflation data locally. The main Sao Paulo stocks index rose 0.4% to end at 54,457 points.
* The Russian stock market, however, was mixed last Friday, tracking key US stock indices. The 30-stock Micex Index fell 0.4% to 1,026.95 points at the close in Moscow.
GLOBAL BONDS
* US Treasury prices were unchanged-to-firm last Friday as a choppy stock market revived some safety bids for bonds, and offset worries over this week's imminent supply of longer-dated debt.
* The benchmark 10-year note was unchanged in price to yield 3.66% Friday.
* Investors will watch US Treasury yields this week as the government plans to sell a record $115 billion in debt, which could exert downward pressure on bond prices.
COMMODITIES
* The rise in risk appetite on hopes that a global recession is bottoming out led oil prices to rebound and top $68 a barrel last Friday.
* NYMEX oil futures edged up 89 cents at $68.05 a barrel, as analysts and traders hope a turnaround in the global economy will lift battered fuel demand.
* Comex gold futures for August delivery settled down $1.70 at $953.10 an ounce last Friday, as rising equities dulled the appeal of the metal as a store of value.
* Separately, the World Gold Council reported that in the first quarter of 2009, investment demand for gold exceeded use by jewelers for the first time since at least 2004.
* Also, China may overtake India to become the world's top gold consumer this year, the World Gold Council said, as the nation became the first of the major economies to rebound from the global recession.
* India's gold purchases slumped 54% in the six months ended June after a decline in the rupee pushed up the cost of owning bullion, cooling demand from housewives and jewelers.
HONG KONG
* Analysts said they see strong near-term resistance around 20,000 points as some investors are keen to profit from the stock market's recent rally, and because of lingering uncertainties about the US economic outlook. .
* They said the index will likely trade between 18,000 and 21,000 in the coming sessions
* Last Friday, Wall Street's overnight surge and continued liquidity inflows led the benchmark index to close at a 10-month high.
* The Hang Seng Index rose 165.09 points, or 0.8%, to a 10-month high of 19,982.79.
* The benchmark index opened strongly at 20,063.93 last Friday, but strong profit-taking pressure, such as that in property developers, capped any gains above the 20,000 level.
SINGAPORE
* The benchmark Straits Times Index ended 2.0%, or 48.53 points, higher at 2,533.43 last Friday, a record level for 2009.
* Rising oil prices, better-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes of economic recovery helped drive commodity, rig builder and bank shares higher.
* But some traders warned that the near-term outlook for the market is uncertain, and that the market is likely to see profit-taking in coming sessions.
CHINA
* Analysts said the benchmark index is likely to consolidate in the 3300-3400 range in coming sessions due to ample market liquidity.
* An analyst who spoke to Dow Jones Newswires, however, said the market will continue to rise on the government's loose monetary measures, which could continue to boost corporate earnings.
* Beijing's stance on maintaining its fiscal and monetary policies continued to boost confidence in the economy, sending China shares to another 13-month high Friday.
* China's top Communist Party leaders vowed last Thursday to continue their focus on maintaining steady economic growth by sticking to the government's active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year.
* The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended up 1.3% at 3,372.60 last Friday.
CURRENCIES
* The US dollar fell against the euro as encouraging economic data help increased risk appetite for higher-yielding currencies.
* The euro got a lift after the Ifo German business sentiment index rose for a fourth month, while initial estimates showed the euro zone services and manufacturing sectors contracted much less sharply than expected in July.
* The common currency gained support from higher crude-oil futures, and optimistic remarks on economic recovery from European Central Bank members.
* However, as the day progressed, a mixed performance in US equities took away much of the higher-yielding euro's intra-day gains.
* Late Friday in New York, the euro was higher at $1.4215, from $1.4194 late Thursday.
* Meanwhile, investor demand was more obvious in the commodity-linked currencies, as the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained against the US dollar.
* Australian Dollar: Australia's currency increased 0.5% to $0.8163 against the US dollar Friday afternoon in New York, from $0.8120 the previous day. However, gains in the Aussie were limited after the currency touched a high of $0.8222, on speculation that the Australian central bank was selling the currency.
* New Zealand Dollar: Upbeat US corporate earnings have been supportive of equities, and higher-yielders including the Kiwi. The currency gained 0.4% to $0.6565 Friday afternoon in New York.
* Chinese Yuan: Moderate selling of US dollars by various banks late Friday provided support for the Chinese yuan, which ended unchanged against the greenback despite a higher dollar-yuan central parity.
* On the over-the-counter market, the dollar ended at CNY6.8310 in Asia, unchanged from Thursday's close.
* Market participants also shrugged off the International Monetary Fund's comment that the Chinese yuan is "substantially undervalued," because the Chinese government isn't likely to alter its stable yuan policy.
* The central parity was set at 6.8318 Friday, up from 6.8307 Thursday, to reflect the dollar's overnight gains against the euro and the yen.
* However, another bank-based trader said the US dollar may extend gains against the Chinese yuan this week as Chinese importers buy dollars to settle accounts near the end of the month.
* The Singapore dollar was lower against the US dollar in Asian trade late Friday on profit-taking, with traders saying that the local unit might remain weak in the coming sessions unless risk appetite increases further. USD/SGD was higher at 1.4416.
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Market close July 27. Rousing start to the trading week
It was a rousing start to the week for regiona l and Singapore bourses, as hopes grew for a bottoming in the economic downturn. Shares in Singapore rallied 1.71 per cent, as the Straits Times Index closed 43.23 points higher at 2,576.66. Turnover was almost feverish, with 3.19 bn shares worth $2.04 bn traded. Breadth was also positive with 2.5 gainers to each loser.
If the mood continues, the STI could look to test the 2,600 level. Financial issues again led the charge. UOB rose 60 cents to $16.84, DBS was up 40 cents to $13.00 and OCBC 13 cents to $7.43. SingTel inched up 15 cents to $3.44 and SIA was up 24 cents to $13.62 despite rising fuel prices.
CapitalMall Trust's results came in within expectations but closed flat at $1.58 though it reached a day’s high of $1.67. The company said occupancy rates remained high and there were some recent positive rental upwards revisions. Other REITs like Capital Commercial Trust, Ascott Reits, Suntec Reits, Capital Retail China Trust and CDL Hospitality Trust also b enefited from the positive sentiment.
Profit taking, however, was seen in some of the property companies after the recent strength.
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